COTE D'IVOIRE: SRSG PONDERING UNOCI'S FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000417


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV DPKO KDEM MARR IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: SRSG PONDERING UNOCI'S FUTURE

REF: ABIDJAN 411

Classified By: Ambassador Wanda Nesbitt for Reasons 1/4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Given the increasing likelihood that
elections scheduled for November 29 may be postponed, SRSG
Choi has begun consulting with resident diplomats about the
future of UNOCI. An extension of UNOCI's mandate through
December 2009 is anticipated when the Security Council meets
to review the issue in late July. The consensus here appears
to be that if and when a postponement is announced (probably
in September) the Security Council should send a strong
signal that the GOCI needs to demonstrate a stronger intent
to live up to the promise of elections in order to retain the
support of the UN and the international community. End
Summary


2. (SBU) UNSRSG Choi met July 8 with a small group of
diplomats to brainstorm about the future of UNOCI in light of
increasing signs that elections will not be held as scheduled
in November. Attendees included the US, Canada, Germany,
Switzerland, and the EU, AU and ECOWAS representatives. Choi
said he did not anticipate problems with UNOCI's mandate, due
to expire July 31, being renewed for now, but solicited our
views on what role UNOCI could/should continue to play if the
Ivorian government again fails to deliver promised elections.

ELECTION PREPARATION TIMELINE DELAYED AGAIN
--------------


3. (C) Choi opened by saying that the conventional wisdom has
been that elections are technically possible but the
political will to hold them is weak. The equation has
changed, in Choi's view, and he believes elections may now be
technically impossible even if the political will to hold
them is strong (or strengthens). The SRSG said his view
shifted after the president of the Independent Electoral
Commission (CEI),Robert Mambe, declined help from the UN
(and the EU) to transport voter enrollment forms to centers
in Abidjan where the data could be computerized. Mambe has
opted instead to wait for generators and other material to be
transported from Abidjan to the 58 centers that still are not
functioning. (Mambe was reportedly concerned about the
chances of data being lost and/or tampered with if the paper
forms are centralized in Abidjan; the SRSG sees the decision,
however, as another indication that there is no real sense of
urgency about holding the election.) Mambe's decision means
that the computerization of data will not start before July
20 and a preliminary voter list will not be produced before
September 1. Barring changes to the electoral code, this
makes it impossible for the GOCI to complete all the steps
that are required (see reftel) for elections to be held on
November 29.

HOW MUCH CAN ONUCI ACCOMPLISH?
--------------


4. (SBU) The conversation centered on what steps the UN (or
member states) could take to push the process further down
the road if the key actors are satisfied with the speed at
which things are currently moving. The AU and ECOWAS reps
both stressed that Ivorians are more interested in peaceful
elections than rapid elections; the EU rep noted that
politically-savvy Ivorians have long talked of elections
taking place in 2010 and that we should not undervalue how
far Cote d'Ivoire has come since 2004. We all agreed that as
long as the Ivorian public and political opposition are
willing to be patient and wait, it will be difficult for the
international community to spur action. There was also
agreement, however, that once it is certain that elections
will not take place this year, the UN should send a very
strong signal that it cannot maintain "an open-ended
commitment" -- with specific regard to UN peacekeeping troops
-- without a stronger demonstration from the Ivorian side
that the commitment to elections is real.

NESBITT