Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ABIDJAN402
2009-07-01 15:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abidjan
Cable title:  

COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO REVIVES ROLE OF

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IV 
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DE RUEHAB #0402/01 1821523
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011523Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5226
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0237
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000402 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO REVIVES ROLE OF
CONSTITUTIONAL COUNCIL

REF: A) ABIDJAN 350

Classified By: Ambassador Wanda L. Nesbitt for Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000402

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO REVIVES ROLE OF
CONSTITUTIONAL COUNCIL

REF: A) ABIDJAN 350

Classified By: Ambassador Wanda L. Nesbitt for Reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador Badini (the Facilitator's
representative in Abidjan) believes that Cote d'Ivoire is
entering a critical phase as the identification process ends
and compilation of the electoral list begins. He anticipates
a hard fought battle among the political parties that could
get very tense and even result in civil disturbances. In a
June 26 conversation with Ambassador, Badini also expressed
concern about recent statements by President Gbagbo regarding
the role of the Constitutional Council, noting that he fears
Gbagbo is laying the groundwork to justify a postponement of
the election and to challenge UN certification of the
election if the result is not favorable to the FPI. End
Summary

POTENTIALLY TENSE MONTHS AHEAD
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador called on Amb. Badini on June 26 to
exchange views on election preparations and progress on
reunification. Ambassador told Badini that the consensus
among OECD Ambassadors (who met informally on June 25) was
that the presidential election probably would not take place
as scheduled on November 29 due primarily to a lack of
political will, but the delay will be attributed to technical
and logistical problems. Badini thought it still possible to
uphold the November 29 date but agreed that there was no room
in the current electoral timeline for delays. He
acknowledged with a chuckle Ambassador's observation that the
Ivorian bureaucracy has failed to meet a single deadline
established as part of the "sortie de crise" (crisis
recovery) process. We agreed that the key element, however,
is for the process to continue moving forward.


3. (C) Badini said he expects the next few months to be
delicate and tense, as the political parties do battle over
who will be included on the final electoral list. Badini
noted with dismay the increased number of media reports
alleging massive fraud, and speculated that this could
complicate a rapid scrubbing of the list. (Note: For the past
week or so, the FPI (Gbagbo's party) has ratcheted up
accusations that the RDR (Alassane Ouattara's party) is

deliberating enrolling "foreigners"; the RDR and the PDCI are
now fighting back with accusations that the Minister of
Interior ordered 250,000 blank birth certificates and has
distributed them to people being paid to register and vote in
favor of the FPI. Embassy cannot speak to the veracity of
either accusation.) Badini stressed, however, that once an
electoral list is established, there will be few credible
obstacles remaining to justify a postponement of elections --
yet another reason to anticipate that the parties will fight
hard over this last stage.

IMPORT OF RECENT GBAGBO SPEECHES
--------------


4. (C) At the conclusion of his trip to the west (June 7-20),
President Gbagbo reminded the public in an interview given to
the government newspaper "Fraternite Matin" that Cote
d'Ivoire's Constitutional Council is charged with declaring
the validity of the elections and proclaiming the final
result. Gbagbo reiterated (for those who might have
forgotten) that this same body must also confirm that
conditions within the country permit elections to be held,
and specified that one reason for his trip was to gather
evidence to present to the council about conditions in the
west. The clear implication was that the Constitutional
Council could, if it chose, determine that conditions do not
permit elections to be held in November, despite the fact
that the CEI has already announced, and Gbagbo has signed a
decree stipulating that elections will be held November 29.


5. (C) The more serious potential problem, in Badini's view,
relates to UN certification of the election. He believes that
Gbagbo turned the spotlight on the Constitutional Council to
signal that an Ivorian body, not the UN, will have the final
say on the results of Cote d'Ivoire's election. Badini was
certain that Gbagbo's remarks were a response to SRSG Choi's
recent press conference (see ref A) on the certification
process. Choi stated forthrightly that he would not permit
the results to be contested once they had been certified by
the UN. Badini and other observers believe that Gbagbo was
furious over this public exclamation that the UN would have
the final say on the results of Cote d'Ivoire's election.
Ambassador agreed with Badini that the international
community could be faced with a dilemma if the election
results certified by the UN conflict with those of the

ABIDJAN 00000402 002 OF 002


Constitutional Council, but also noted that it will be
difficult (if not impossible) for the parties to accept UN
certification of the electoral list and other aspects of the
process, and then reject the UN's assessment of the results.


6. (C) Comment: Badini's concern that the Constitutional
Council could ultimately prove to be problematic is
legitimate and one that we should keep on our radar screens.
We believe it is important to note that President Gbagbo's
actions reflect his long-standing determination to minimize
the role of the UN in the elections. Gbagbo delivered remarks
on May 29 at the UN Day celebration in which, to his credit,
he acknowledged that Cote d'Ivoire's problems were caused by
Ivorians and could only be solved by Ivorians. He also stated
quite pointedly, possibly in response to Choi's press
conference, that many people had deceived themselves about
the nature of the crisis in Cote d'Ivoire, going so far as to
believe that it could be solved by UN resolutions. He noted
with satisfaction that after the individuals who occupy
certain seats changed, (a not-so-subtle reference to former
French president Chirac and the former UNSRSG in Abidjan),a
much better understanding of the crisis in Cote d'Ivoire had
emerged. Gbagbo welcomed the international community's role
in "accompanying" the nation on the road to peace but made it
clear that he was interested in nothing more expansive. End
Comment

NESBITT