FACILITATOR'S REPRESENTATIVE SAYS KEEP PRESSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000185


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON EAID IV
SUBJECT: FACILITATOR'S REPRESENTATIVE SAYS KEEP PRESSING
FOR ELECTIONS IN 2009

REF: A) ABIDJAN 122

Classified By: Ambassador Wanda L. Nesbitt for Reasons 1.4 (b/d)



1. (C) Summary: In a March 10 conversation, Ambassador
Boureima Badini (Facilitator Blaise Compaore's representative
in Abidjan) urged that the US and other donors keep pressing
for elections in 2009. He expressed concern that the
political will to hold elections has faded as it has become
increasingly clear to the FPI that their chances of winning a
fair election are slim. But, Badini stressed, there is no
technical or logistical reason why elections can't be held in

2009. He hoped that a new date for the election would be set
at the next CPC (Consultative Framework Mechanism) meeting,
now anticipated in early April, and thought it would be
helpful for the US and other governments to issue statements
calling for elections this year. Ambassador agreed to explore
with Washington the timing of such a statement. End Summary

ELECTION DELAY REFLECTS THE FPI'S LACK OF CONFIDENCE
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2. (C) Badini applauded the international community's effort
to get the Ivorians to commit to a timeframe for elections at
the February 16 CEA meeting (see ref A) and urged more of the
same. Although the effort was unsuccessful, Badini thought it
important for the international community to keep the
pressure on Pres. Gbagbo and to be vocal about the need for
elections sooner rather than later. He told Ambassador that
the FPI leadership now realizes that its representatives at
the grassroots level have not done a very good job of
mobilizing and registering FPI supporters. This is evidently
one of the reasons that FPI hardliners, such as Martin
Sokoury Bohui, the FPI's National Secretary for Elections,
who last November called for the identification process in
the north to be suspended due to "massive fraud", is now
proclaiming that the process should continue until every
Ivorian who wants to register has had a chance to do so.


3. (C) The CEI (Independent Electoral Commission) has stated
that they cannot set a date for elections until the
reconstitution of civil registries is completed. However, CEI
President Mambe has stated (ref A) that if the reconstitution
process was completed by the end of April, elections could be
held by October. Badini expressed concern that while action
to reconstitute these important registries has begun in some
areas, no action is being taken in others. He saw the lack of
movement as politically motivated. The committees that carry
out the actual reconstitution process are chaired by the
sub-prefects, Badini said, and those who are not working
claim that they have not received the necessary orders from
Minister of Interior Desire Tagro (a close ally of the
president). Tagro's justification is apparently that the
appropriate security mechanisms (i.e. the presence of mixed
brigades) for the prefects and sub-prefects are not yet in
place. Badini speculated that these kinds of delays are part
of a strategy to buy time for President Gbagbo to try to
improve his chances of winning.

POSTPONEMENT OF HANDOVER CEREMONY
--------------


4. (C) Ambassador commented that this was the same
justification Tagro had used to postpone the handover of
administrative powers from the Forces Nouvelles (FAFN) to the
government. Badini agreed but said the Forces Nouvelles was
fundamentally at fault. The government has identified and
given to Facilitator Compaore its list of 2,000 gendarmes who
are being assigned to the mixed brigades, but the FAFN has
yet to produce a list of the 3,400 elements it will
contribute to these brigades. Badini was very frustrated
with the FAFN over this issue, telling Ambassador that PM
Soro had promised to produce the list at the March 4
ceremony, then failed to do so. He said it was easy for the
government to refuse to send their police elements north as
long as the Forces Nouvelles appeared unable to produce their
presumed counterparts. Ambassador wondered if the delay was
because the FAFN was finding it difficult to identify 3,400
soldiers interested in and qualified to do police work;
Badini said sadly that he feared that was precisely the case.


2010 WILL BRING A NEW DYNAMIC
--------------


5. (C) Returning to the need to push the Ivorians to hold
elections, the Facilitator's representative said he worries
that the Ouagadougou peace process could peter out if Gbagbo
and the FPI succeed in postponing elections until 2010.
Badini noted that Blaise Compaore will be up for reelection
in 2010 and will be forced to devote more time to domestic
issues (including his campaign) and less time to the problems
of Cote d'Ivoire. In Badini's view, the OPA's failure would
also represent the failure of a homegrown, African conflict
resolution effort, which he thought would be a very bad omen
for the region. Ambassador noted that, according to Cote
d'Ivoire's constitution, former president Bedie would be too
old to remain a candidate in a 2010 election and that this,
too, would change the dynamic. Badini agreed and said it was
more likely than not that Gbagbo would champion the
constitution over any previous peace agreement (e.g. the
Linas-Marcoussis or Pretoria accords) and try to exclude
Bedie from the race. In Badini's view, the president's camp
has failed so far to break up the RHDP (an alliance between
RDR leader Alassane Ouattara and PDCI leader Henri Bedie,
literally Rassemblement des Houphouetistes pour la Democratie
et la Paix) but continues to pursue this objective, and may
now see an alliance with Bedie's successor as more feasible.
Badini asserted that these factors, combined with the
stalemate that the current political situation has created in
many sectors and ministries, make it all the more important
for the international community to continue to insist on
elections as soon as possible. He thought a statement issued
from Washington would be helpful.


6. (C) Comment: Although there are technical and logistical
impediments to holding elections in 2009, I agree with
Badini that these obstacles could be overcome in a matter of
months if the political will to hold elections was strong. I
also agree that a statement from Washington would be helpful.
(It is likely that the Facilitator is also lobbying other
countries to make statements.) If, as anticipated, Cote
d'Ivoire reaches the HIPC decision point at the end of March,
a statement by the Department shortly afterwards would be
extremely timely. It would be a good opportunity to
acknowledge the good things Cote d'Ivoire has done but also
reiterate the need for elections and stipulate that we
believe they can and should be held in 2009. Post will be
pursuing this idea with AF/W.


7. (C) Comment Cont'd: It was evident that much of Badini's
concern is for Burkina Faso president Compaore's reputation
and their shared interest in being able to flag the OPA as a
Burkinabe success story. But it is also true that Compaore
remains one of the few leaders who appears to have real sway
over President Gbagbo. It is certainly in Cote d'Ivoire's -
and our - interest to see the crisis resolved as soon as
possible. End Comment

NESBITT