Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ABIDJAN178
2009-03-17 16:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abidjan
Cable title:  

OUATTARA SEES LACK OF WILL TO HOLD ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PREL IV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1928
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0178/01 0761610
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171610Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5002
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000178 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IV
SUBJECT: OUATTARA SEES LACK OF WILL TO HOLD ELECTIONS

Classified By: PolEcon Chief Silvia Eiriz for reasons 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000178

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IV
SUBJECT: OUATTARA SEES LACK OF WILL TO HOLD ELECTIONS

Classified By: PolEcon Chief Silvia Eiriz for reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. RDR president Ouattara told Ambassador that
President Gbagbo has no political will to hold an election
and is taking steps to delay the process. Ouattara said it
is technically feasible to hold the presidential election in
2009 and urged the international community to send a stronger
message regarding establishment of an electoral date. End
Summary.


2. (C) Ambassador called on RDR political party president and
former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara March 16 to discuss
delays in the electoral process and the opposition's apparent
acceptance of the failure to set a new election date.
Ouattara told Ambassador without hesitation that President
Gbagbo does not want to hold an election and is even
attempting to delay it. He said that putting off elections
also benefits some individuals in the Prime Minister's office
as well as those in government institutions, such as the
National Assembly, whose mandates have expired. Ouattara
stated that Gbagbo's electoral base represents only 12 to 15
percent of the population, making a Gbagbo victory impossible
in the absence of an alliance with a larger party. The RDR
leader confirmed that Gbagbo has been unable to breach the
agreement between him and PDCI leader and former president
Henri Bedie to support each other against Gbagbo if the
election goes to a second round. Ouattara scoffed at the
idea of an alliance with Gbagbo, saying they have nothing in
common while he and Bedie remain committed to
Houphouet-Boigny's principles.

ELECTION SHOULD NOT BE TIED TO RESOLVING MILITARY QUESTIONS
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Ouattara expressed concern about linking the election
to a resolution of military disputes between the government
and the Forces Nouvelles (FAFN),noting that the country has
been relatively peaceful for several years. He thought that
security for the election could be assured if the two sides
were committed to it. Ouattara also complained that military
issues were being linked to the election but had never even
been on the agenda of a CPC meeting. (The Permanent
Consultation Framework (CPC) of the Ouagadougou Political

Agreement (OPA) includes Ouattara, Bedie, Gbagbo, Soro and
Facilitator Compaore and meets periodically to assess the
progress of the OPA.) Ouattara said the military questions
only concern the two former belligerents while the election
concerns the entire political class. He also noted that the
country is no longer truly divided. The President and the
Prime Minister travel freely throughout the country and there
is no concern about the candidates' ability to campaign
nationwide.


4. (C) Ouattara told the Ambassador there is no technical
reason preventing a presidential election in 2009. He said
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) president Mambe has
formulated an electoral timeline that envisions September 27,
2009 as election day, proof that an election is possible this
year. The next step, Ouattara said, should be to set a
definitive end date for the identification/voter registration
process. He agreed that the process was critical but said
most countries have a fixed voter registration period and
Cote d'Ivoire should too. He also remarked that more persons
have been registered to vote thus far than the total number
of persons on the 2000 electoral list. Ouattara doubted that
the reconstitution of civil registries would ultimately
affect more than 50,000 voters and thought this process as
well as the registration of Ivoirians living overseas could
be completed by the end of April. He calculated that the
draft electoral list could be compiled by the end of May with
the final list ready by the end of June and elections three
months later. He agreed, however, that President Gbagbo
would ultimately have to consent, noting wryly that
regardless of the feasibility of holding an election in 2009,
a presidential decree would have to be signed before one
could actually take place.

OPPOSITION DOESN'T HAVE A STRATEGY
--------------


5. (C) Ambassador told Ouattara that the USG's position
remains that elections should be held as soon as possible and
that we will continue to pressure the Gbagbo government to
hold elections this year. She noted that it is difficult,
however, for the international community to convince the
government to move more quickly when the opposition appears
to be satisfied with the pace of activity. Ouattara agreed
that the international community should not be seen as trying
to impose elections on Cote d'Ivoire and said he is aware
that the political opposition sometimes appears to be
complicit in the electoral delay. He explained that he has
not publicly exerted pressure on the government to set a date

ABIDJAN 00000178 002 OF 002


because it was important to allow the identification process
to move forward. He also reminded Ambassador that several
hundred people were killed the last time the opposition
launched a major protest. No one wants a repeat of that
experience. Ouattara said he plans to meet Bedie in a few
days to establish a common position regarding the
establishment of an electoral date. He said he would also ask
Compaore to allow the CEI to announce an election date if the
government fails to do so.


6. (C) One of the several rumors circulating in Abidjan is
that President Gbagbo may step down if he stays in office
until 2010 as he will have completed two terms by then.
Ouattara dismissed this conjecture; he thought it more likely
that Gbagbo would seek two more terms. Ouattara said it was
important for the international community to send a strong
message about setting a new date for elections and suggested
United Nations Security Council resolutions as a mechanism to
do so. Ambassador asked Ouattara if there are any African
leaders that Gbagbo would listen to and who might push for
elections. Aside from President Compaore, Ouattara could
think of none.


7. (C) Ouattara expressed dismay at Cote d'Ivoire's economic
stagnation due to the political crisis. He said he is tired
of the stalemate and expressed frustration at his inability
to significantly contribute to his country's welfare and
development. He even wondered whether he'd made a mistake in
leaving the IMF to return to politics in Cote d'Ivoire.


8. (C) Comment: It is ironic that it is Ouattara who is
calling for the identification process to end since this
issue is one of paramount importance to his constituents, and
must reflect his confidence that his party has registered
more than enough voters to secure a win. Ouattara seemed
convinced that Gbagbo's FPI party is dragging their feet
because they know they cannot win and doubted that the FPI
would be able to register a significantly greater number of
supporters. Most striking, however, is the fact the
opposition appears to have no strategy for pushing President
Gbagbo closer to elections and is relying on President
Compaore and the international community to persuade the
Ivoirian leader to hold elections.
NESBITT