NATO ENLARGEMENT: SUSTAINING CROATIA'S PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000086

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR - P/DAS VOLKER, DAS DICARLO, EUR/RPM,
EUR/SCE
USNATO FOR AMB NULAND, UNDERWOOD, BAEZ
NSC FOR BRADLEY
OSD FOR NATO POLICY - DAS FATA
JCS FOR SHIELDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO MOPS MARR NATO HR DEFENSE REFORM
SUBJECT: NATO ENLARGEMENT: SUSTAINING CROATIA'S PROGRESS

REF: A. ZAGREB 46

B. ZAGREB 62

C. ZAGREB 65

D. STATE 8781

E. USNATO 22

F. ZAGREB 69

Classified By: Political Officer Tom Selinger for reasons 1.4(b) and (d
).


1. (U) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Upon formation of PM Sanader's
new government, the Ambassador met with President Mesic, PM
Sanader (ref A),FM Jandrokovic (ref B),DefMin Vukelic, and
Speaker of Parliament Bebic (ref C). At all of these
meetings, he discussed the GoC's strategy to address
Croatia's key remaining issues before NATO's Bucharest
Summit, as outlined in ref D. The PM was already energized
by comments made by NATO PermReps at the Jan 16 NAC session
concluding the GoC's sixth MAP cycle (ref E),and leaders are
now actively engaged in making sure there is no reason to
question a Croatian invite in April. In addition, the GoC
has demonstrated a clear understanding at all levels that
reforms must continue beyond the NATO invitation. END
SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

SUPPORT STILL CLIMBING, INFO CAMPAIGN EXPANDING
-------------- --


2. (C) Croatia's State Committee on NATO, which includes the
President and PM as well as key ministers and
parliamentarians, met Jan 28 and approved an expanded public
information campaign to build on already growing support for
membership. This will reportedly include numerous broadcast
and print media interviews, public roundtables, university
debates, internet pages, military "open houses," and NATO
"Info Points" in public libraries. PM Sanader explained to
the Ambassador on Jan 21 that the GoC will use the Croatian
military's participation in Afghanistan as an example of what
it means to be a NATO member, giving a larger role to ISAF
veterans in public outreach and sending journalists to Kabul,
Chagcharan, and Mazar-e Sharif to interview soldiers
currently serving there.


3. (SBU) The President, FM, DefMin, and Speaker all shared
the PM's enthusiasm, with the President promising a
"demanding and comprehensive" public relations campaign at a
gathering of NATO-member state ambassadors on Jan 29. The FM
pointed to his newly appointed spokesperson Mario Dragun, a
PR professional recruited from the private sector, as a sign
that the MFA was taking its outreach mission seriously. The
FM brought Neven Mikec, the former head of the ministry's
NATO office, up to be his chief of cabinet, and promised to
appoint a qualified replacement. Croatian Ambassador to NATO
Davor Bozinovic, who spearheaded efforts to bring support up
from a historic low of 30 percent in late 2006 to the current
figures over 50 percent, will continue to play a key role in
public outreach, according to Jandrokovic.


4. (U) Two recent polls, neither commissioned by the GoC,
show a continuing upward trend in public support. Leading
polling agencies PULS and Promocija Plus have both released
results in February showing more than 51 percent of Croatians
in favor of NATO membership. Earlier results from PULS had
lagged behind government-sponsored polling, making this the
first time this agency has shown support above 50 percent.

COMMITTED TO RESOLVING PROPERTY RESTITUTION ISSUE
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The Ambassador stressed to PM Sanader that NATO
membership depended on ratification after an invitation, and
they agreed on the need to resolve WW II and communist-era
property restitution claims of non-Croatian citizens. FM
Jandrokovic told the Ambassador that the GoC was "completely
committed" to moving ahead with amendments to the property
restitution law to give non-Croatians the same legal remedies
as citizens, and Speaker Bebic indicated that the Sabor was
prepared to consider such legislation.

SOFA SIGNATURE ON HORIZON
--------------


6. (C) The PM told the Ambassador on Jan 21 that the

government would approve the final SOFA text within a week or
two, so Post expects movement soon on this issue within days.
He was amenable to a signing ceremony in Washington on the
margins of the A-3 Defense Ministerial Feb 18 to 20.

REFUGEE RETURNS: BRINGING ETHNIC SERBS INTO GOC
-------------- --


7. (C) With respect to refugee returns, PM Sanader pointed to
his extensive governing coalition agreement with the SDSS
(Independent Democratic Serbian Party),which he said will
ensure progress on the refugee housing issue beyond the
benchmarks achieved in 2007 (ref F). He also highlighted the
fact that he had brought a member of the Serb minority into
the government for the first time in Croatia's history to
serve as a Deputy Prime Minister with responsibility for
refugee returns.

BEYOND BUCHAREST: BECOMING THE BEST POSSIBLE ALLY
-------------- --------------


8. (C) In all of the Ambassador's meetings, Croatian leaders
demonstrated a clear understanding that an invitation in
Bucharest was merely another stepping stone on a long path of
reforms aimed at making Croatia a capable and committed ally.
PM Sanader promised to continue work "beyond Bucharest,"
while President Mesic said that Croatia wants to finish what
NATO SGY Scheffer calls the marathon to membership at "the
same pace we started."


9. (C) DefMin Vukelic, who has already made one creditable
appearance on a national TV talk show to promote NATO
accession, also acknowledged the long-term nature of many
reforms. He highlighted the GoC's commitment to its 10-year
restructuring and modernization plan for their military,
which will continue many years after Croatia's expected entry
into the Alliance.
BRADTKE