SCENESETTER FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY,S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000659

SIPDIS

DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FROM DATT
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE AND EUR/RPM
ALSO PLEASE PASS TO EUCOM PLANS AND ANALYSES STUTTGART GE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO MOPS MARR NATO HR DEFENSE REFORM
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY,S VISIT TO
CROATIA

Classified By: COL Brendan McAloon, DATT, for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Sir, yours is the highest level visit since President
and Mrs. Bush, and Secretary Rice visited after the Bucharest
Summit in April 2008. Since that time, Croatia has continued
its MAP process with an eye to full membership soon and
increased its ISAF contribution from 200 to a maximum of 300
soldiers on the ground. There are 277 Croatian soldiers in
Afghanistan now.

2. (C) Atmospherics. You have a good set of meetings with
the MOD, MFA, PM and President scheduled for your time here.
The NATO invitation completed the first part of Croatia,s
goal to be accepted as an advanced European state. The
second more distant step is an invitation to join the
European Union. The Prime Minister has been a reliable
supporter of U.S. positions, for example in the UNSC, while a
sense of nostalgia for the good ol, non-aligned state days
sometimes leads President Mesic to take what he sees as a
more nuanced view of issues and seek dialogue with states
like Russia and Iran. Prime Minister Sanader is a skillful
politician who likes to keep his own counsel and thus rarely
appoints strong ministers which is the case with both MoD
Minister Vukelic and MFA Minister Jandrokovic.


3. (SBU) OMLTs: Croatia has the only non-NATO Operational
Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT) in ISAF for which it bears
all the costs except the U.S.-provided stratlift. Croatia and
the Minnesota National Guard are in the early stages of
planning to deploy a combined combat-support OMLT next year.
There are plans for a third, garrison-level OMLT to deploy to
Afghanistan in the 2009-2010 timeframe. Croatia continues to
express a desire to deploy a PRT in the future, but we assess
that the current focus on OMLTs is the best use of its
capabilities in the near to mid term.


4. (C) KFOR: The Croatian Parliament has authorized the
deployment of two helicopters to Kosovo in 2009. We expect
that the Croatians will offer two of their new MI-171Sh lift
helicopters in September for deployment sometime in 2009.
This will be the first deployment outside of Croatia for the
Air Force. We expect that there will be a need to upgrade
the new helicopters to NATO standards prior to deployment and
that Croatia will ask us for that assistance.


5. (C) Peacekeeping: Croatia prides itself on its transition
from a security consumer with UN Peacekeepers on its
territory to a security provider with Croatian Armed Forces
(CAF) elements involved in fifteen UN peacekeeping operations
around the globe, to include the 3 Croatian participants in
the UN Mission to Georgia. The most recent deployment was of
98 CAF personnel to the UN mission in the Golan Heights.
Croatia will soon deploy 15 soldiers to the EU-led mission in
Chad. With these deployments Croatia is in the process of
implementing its plans to increase and sustain its PKO
contributions from around 250 soldiers in 2007 to 600
soldiers by 2010.


6. (C) ASPA: The U.S. FMF and IMET programs were suspended in
July 2003 due to ASPA sanctions. As a result, in the past
few years the CAF depended entirely upon national resources
to accomplish its NATO partnership goals and to equip its
forces for ISAF. Croatia is the only ISAF partner and new
NATO invitee that accomplished its transformation and
financed its ISAF commitments without FMF or Coalition
Support Funding. The suspension of IMET during this time has
had a telling impact throughout the CAF. Most notably is the
lack of U.S.-educated staff officers at the senior and
mid-grade officer level to fill critical billets on the MOD,
CAF, and NATO Staffs. Croatia has been identified to receive
one million dollars of Global Peace Operations Initiative
funds, the bulk of which will be dedicated to improve the
English language capability of the CAF.


7. (SBU) FMF/IMET levels. Croatia did not receive any FMF
in FY08, and is projected to receive only 1.8 million dollars
in FMF in 2009. IMET is similarly under-funded for a NATO
invitee with only 309K in FY08 (including the 9K in
end-of-year fallout) and is projected to receive 500K in
FY09. The proposed budget numbers trend better in FY10.


8. (C) Procurement Priorities. U.S. FMF funding will be
directed at obtaining the necessary NATO-compatible radio

equipment, night vision equipment, weapon sights, combat
medical equipment, and GPS required to sustain Croatia,s
forces in ISAF. Croatia currently has no Type 1 radios or
Selective Availability Anti-Spoof Module (SAASM) global
positioning systems in its inventory. The MoD has also
expressed interest in procuring counter-IED jammers for its
ISAF mission. We will also need to direct FMF funds to the
upgrades needed to deploy Croatian helicopters to KFOR.


9. (C) Coastal Radars. The Croatian Navy has had ongoing
problems with its Enhanced Peregrine coastal surveillance
radar system. The Peregrine radar system purchase, from a
private American manufacturer without US government
involvement, began in 1999. To date the Peregrine radar
system has not achieved full operational capability. The
Croatian government and military have invested approximately
80 million US dollars and huge political capital trying to
make the system work. This topic is significant enough to
the Croatian government that President Mesic considered
bringing it up with President Bush during the President,s
visit to Zagreb in April 2008. In June 2008, a team of US
Navy radar experts visited Croatia to inspect the system and
offer advice, but not to perform hands on maintenance.


10. (C) F-16s. The MoD,s Long Term Development Plan calls
for Croatia to replace its 12 soon-to-be post-lifecycle
MiG-21 aircraft with a similar number of advanced fighters
for domestic air policing. Croatia sent requests for
information for Mirage, MiG-29, Eurofighter, Gripen, and F-16
(Block 15 used, Block 15 mid-life upgrade, and Block 50/52
new). Croatia now has all the answers it requested and is
conducting further internal studies. Sticker shock and an
inefficient procurement process means that we may not see a
decision until next year or later.
Bradtke