Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08YEREVAN3
2008-01-04 09:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

ARMENIAN PRESIDENCY OPPOSES EXIT POLL FOR

Tags:  PGOV PREL EAID KDEM OSCE KPAO AM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4600
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHYE #0003/01 0040955
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 040955Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6820
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1405
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0493
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 0536
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000003 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM OSCE KPAO AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN PRESIDENCY OPPOSES EXIT POLL FOR
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

REF: A) YEREVAN 1467 B) YEREVAN 1439

Classified By: CDA JPENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 B/D.


-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000003

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM OSCE KPAO AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN PRESIDENCY OPPOSES EXIT POLL FOR
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

REF: A) YEREVAN 1467 B) YEREVAN 1439

Classified By: CDA JPENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 B/D.


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) During a lengthy, back-and-forth discussion, President
Kocharian's Chief of Staff and senior aide conveyed the
president's opposition to the exit poll proposed by USAID for
the February presidential election. Asking the Mission to
understand, and not politicize the president's request to
forego the poll, the officials enumerated the
administration's numerous concerns. These included a lack of
trust in the poll's administration, fear that it could
jeopardize political stability, and a concern that the poll
would overshadow the election process itself. The Charge
d'Affaires disagreed with the Presidency's assessment,
regretted the decision to oppose the exit poll, and cautioned
that it could send the wrong signal about GOAM stated
commitments to democratic reforms. He noted that while the
Mission would not hold the poll if it was not welcomed, it
would eventually have to go public with the reason why. End
summary.

--------------
POLL "NOT WELCOMED AT ALL"
--------------


2. (C) At the request of the Presidency, the Charge
d'Affaires on December 28 met with presidential Chief of
Staff Armen Gevorkian and presidential aide Vigen Sargsyan,
to discuss the USAID-funded exit poll commissioned by IRI for
the February 19 presidential election. USAID's acting
director, democracy programs chief, and acting polchief
accompanied the Charge to the meeting which was held at the
Presidency. The meeting was the third held on the subject
within the space of three weeks, all at the request of the
Presidency, after Prime Minister (and presidential
front-runner) Serzh Sargsyan publicly supported the exit
poll. While the Presidency has remained publicly silent
about the poll, in private it has stridently opposed it
(reftels),and criticized the Mission for not consulting it

first before broaching the idea with the Prime Minister.
(Note: The Mission raised the issue peripherally during a
late November meeting with the PM that addressed other
issues, and was pleasantly surprised that he went immediately
public with his support right after the meeting. End note.)


3. (C) Exhibiting a highly suspicious attitude toward the
exit poll, the officials expressed at length the presidential
administration's concerns, noting that "the president does
not welcome it at all." While showing appreciation for U.S.
election assistance in general, Gevorkian nevertheless
attacked the poll, which he viewed as "a political tool"
whose methodology and administration inspired little
confidence. The officials said the specter of an exit poll
"commissioned by one country" and "conducted by a private
organization of a third country" would open the door to
additional requests from other countries with "different
political agendas." Sargsyan noted that "chaos" would ensue,
and Armenian sovereignty would be threatened, if Armenia were
to go down this path. (Note: The reference to a private
organization of a third country is attributed to the fact
that IRI commissioned the Baltic Surveys, Ltd. / Gallup
Organization in Vilnius to conduct the poll. End note.)


4. (C) Gevorkian repeatedly emphasized the lack of trust that
the administration had in the poll's methodology and conduct,
and the fact that the GOAM was not invited to participate in
carrying it out. Focusing in on the possibility of fraud in
the collection of polling data, its electronic transmission
to Vilnius, and its analysis by foreigners there, Gevorkian
said Armenia was "not guilty" in turning down the poll. He
also had concerns that Gallup could not share polling data
broken down by precinct after the poll. (Comment: In a
December 19 meeting at the Presidency, the Embassy and USAID
invited IRI and Gallup to explain the poll's methodology to
Sargsyan and other officials. During that meeting, none of
these officials directly asked that the GOAM be allowed to
participate in the polling process. So Gevorkian's repeated
emphasis that Gallup had rejected GOAM entreaties to
participate should be viewed as political posturing. End
comment.)

YEREVAN 00000003 002 OF 003



--------------
NO "SOUND SLEEP" ON ELECTION NIGHT
--------------


5. (C) Trotting out the same argument from the December 19
meeting, Sargsyan iterated that the poll could result in
political instability, claiming people would not get a "sound
sleep" on election night if official and exit poll results
diverged. He said "one to three bad apples" could tamper
with the poll and put Armenian sovereignty to the test.
Gevorkian chimed in and said a botched poll could even
jeopardize the ten years of accomplishments under Kocharian,
listing democracy, development, and stability. Gevorkian
expounded at length on an episode of the 2003 presidential
election, in which the OSCE charged in its post-election
report that vote fraud had occurred in a particular district
where the OSCE did not even have observers present. Alleging
the episode unfairly tarnished the elections, Gevorkian said
"we do not want to repeat" the situation when it comes to the
exit poll.


6. (C) The officials also repeatedly stressed that the exit
poll risked overshadowing the "real" task at hand, the
electoral process itself. Drawing a distinction between the
two, they said the legal complications that could result from
the exit poll, in a country that had "no tradition" of exit
polls, could harm the entire electoral process. Sargsyan
returned to his contention that the exit poll could not be
challenged in court, and both alleged that since the exit
poll had no legal basis in Armenian law, the GOAM would not
feel any accountability regarding its results. Gevorkian
further noted that exit polls were not a component of
international agreements on election assistance with Armenia,
and Sargsyan said Armenia did not need exit polls to
"validate" its election results.

--------------
PLEASE DON'T POLITICIZE DECISION
--------------


7. (C) Gevorkian asked the Charge not to publicize or
politicize the president's opposition to the poll. Appealing
to the Embassy to try to understand the GOAM's perspective,
he hoped the Mission would maintain a low profile on the
topic until he had one final meeting with President Kocharian
on the subject, and after the president eventually made his
views public. At that point, Gevorkian said it would be
natural for the Embassy to air its own position. He added
that the president planned to meet with foreign ambassadors
in January, where he would explain his position on the exit
poll to the diplomatic community. Sargsyan then hinted that
the GOAM would review electoral legislation after the
election to preclude foreign sponsorship of exit polls in the
future.

--------------
CHARGE'S RESPONSE
--------------


8. (C) The Charge disagreed with the characterization of the
exit poll as a political tool, said the poll was proposed in
good faith, and stressed it would increase the credibility of
the election results in Armenian eyes, and abroad. He
pointed out to Gevorkian that the GOAM (and the President)
was missing an opportunity to demonstrate greater
transparency in the election process, and publicly
demonstrate its stated commitments to democratic reforms. He
also previewed a letter from MCC President Ambassador
Danilovich to Kocharian which noted the importance of a clean
election for the continuation of Armenia,s MCC Compact. He
noted that while the Mission would not hold the poll if it
were not welcomed, it would eventually have to be honest with
the media when asked about why the idea had been nixed.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) This decision was disappointing, but not unexpected.
The posturing over the lack of GOAM participation is a fig
leaf concealing the president's distrust of the exit poll, a
distrust we find puzzling given the fact he's stepping down
after two terms and his hand-picked successor enjoys a
credible double-digit lead over his next closest rival. We
suspect the Presidency will now use this "non-participation"

YEREVAN 00000003 003 OF 003


line publicly to explain Kocharian's opposition to the idea.
Given the Prime Minister's public enthusiasm for the poll, it
will also be interesting to observe his private and public
reactions to the president's contradicting decision. The
election process has willy-nilly revealed the contrast in
operating styles -- and apparently in confidence levels --
of both leaders. The exit poll issue has crystallized these
differences, and suggests that the perceived political
interests of the PM and President have started to diverge.
PENNINGTON