ARMENIA: UPDATE ON THE SPREAD OF AFRICAN SWINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000026

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

MOSCOW FOR KIM SVEC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AM EAGR
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: UPDATE ON THE SPREAD OF AFRICAN SWINE
FEVER

REF: A. YEREVAN 01193

B. YEREVAN 01120

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) As of Mid-December 2007, approximately 14,000 swine
had died or been culled in Armenia due to ASF, according to
government estimates. Post confirmed reports of outbreak in
four regions in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh. The Government
has been slow to react to the spreading virus despite the
warnings and assistance of the international community. The
failure of the GOAM's compensation program for farmers
affected by the outbreak could become an election issue. END
SUMMARY.

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New ASF Commission Established
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2. (U) On December 17, Poloff met with Deputy Minister of
Agriculture Levon Rukhyan to inquire about the Armenian
government's efforts to combat the spread of ASF since
receiving recommendations from UN/FAO as outlined in reftel
and in fulfillment of the action plan agreed to by Prime
Minister Sargsyan during his October visit to Washington for
the U.S. Armenia Economic Task Force (USATF) meeting.
Rukhyan informed Poloff that he continues to chair the GOAM's
ASF Task Force that meets daily to discuss the outbreak and
assured Poloff that his Ministry had a good handle on the
situation. In addition, Rukhyan stated that an ASF
Commission had been created in September as a means to
facilitate discussions and coordination at a higher level.
This commission is comprised of the heads of the various
stake-holder Ministries, the Deputy Prime Minister who acts
as chairman, and the governors of the regions (Marzs).

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New Outbreaks
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3. (U) Rukhyan confirmed that there had been new outbreaks
in Kotayk and Ararat Marzs and that the ASF Task Force had
responded accordingly, dispatching representatives to oversee
containment. In the case of Kotayk Marz, the outbreak
consisted of one farm in which 110 swine had been culled. In
Ararat Marz, again one farm had been affected and
approximately 300 swine culled. According to Rukhyan, the
Ministry of Agriculture has also established decontamination
checkpoints surrounding the outbreak villages in Kotayk and
Ararat.


4. (U) Rukhyan acknowledged that the outbreak was still a
problem in Lori and Tavush Marzs and that a quarantine was
still in place there. In total, he estimated that 14,000
swine had either died or been culled by mid-December not
including the 3-4,000 swine that had been affected in the
breakaway, Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) region
of Azerbaijan. In response to the N-K outbreak, the Ministry
of Agriculture had banned all pork imports and installed
checkpoints at relevant points of entry. In spite of the
rising number of infected swine, Deputy Minister Rukhyan
claimed that the number of reported cases had declined since
the onset of winter.

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Inconsistent Application of Safety Measures
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5. (SBU) When Poloff mentioned reports of unmanned
checkpoints and empty disinfectant pools, Rukhyan
acknowledged that not all inspectors were as vigilant as he
was about the problem, and that he had personally driven to a
number of checkpoints to observe their procedures. Rukhyan
also implied that the lack of vigilance was a reflection of
the overall fatigue visible within the GOAM and populace of
hearing that ASF was an "emergency" issue.


6. (U) Rukhyan stated that the GOAM had been very pleased
with the support it had received to date from USAID and the
USDA in establishing regional support centers that assisted
in the distribution of information about ASF to the local
populace. However, he cited a recent incident of when he had
to personally pull an ASF-affected carcass from a stream as
evidence that much of the rural populace had yet to read the
materials.


YEREVAN 00000026 002.2 OF 002


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Ministry of Agriculture's Response
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7. (SBU) In response to Poloff's questions about the
implementation of reftel UN/FAO action plan, Rukhyan stated
that they were not implementing the plan but rather working
with the local USDA office while pursuing a policy of
financial compensation for those farmers with affected swine.
However, as of Mid-December the GOAM had yet to receive some
750,000 USD inherited from the World Bank's previous Avian
Influenza (WBAI) program in Armenia and therefore could not
proceed with the compensation plan. As a result, many
farmers who had been forced to cull swine were upset and this
was becoming an election issue. In addition, Rukhyan stated
that his ministry was attempting to keep pork prices low by
giving fines to pork speculators. According to Rukhyan, the
ban on Armenian pork exports to Russia was also helping to
maintain price stability since all Armenian meat had to stay
in country.

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USDA Estimates and Concerns
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8. (SBU) Post's resident USDA experts estimate that as of
mid-December the total number of swine that had died or been
culled in Armenia because of ASF was approximately 11,000.
However, their estimate on the number of swine affected in
N-K was as much as 9,000 dead or culled, much greater than
the figure stated by the Armenian Ministry of Agriculture.
According to USDA's contacts with connections to N-K , the
GOAM was using all available resources including those
provided by the World Bank, UN/FAO, and USAID to assist the
N-K outbreak. (NOTE: The breakaway Azerbaijani region of
Nagorno-Karabakh is controlled by the self-declared "Republic
of Nagorno Karabakh" or "NKR" authorities. While the "NKR"
is formally separate from the Republic of Armenia, there are
considerable political and economic ties between the "NKR"
and Armenia proper. USG personnel are restricted from
visiting N-K. END NOTE)


9. (U) ASF has also reached farms near Yerevan, and has even
affected the personal menagerie of Armenian oligarch Gagik
Tsaroukyan in a Yerevan suburb. USDA representatives blame

SIPDIS
the continued spread of the virus on poor implementation of
the quarantine and non-compliance with the agricultural
recommendations made at the USATF conference in October.
Vehicular decontamination points and meat inspections are
either non-existent or poorly functioning. There should be
an economic payoff, however, for those independent farmers
that successfully protect their herds with rigorous
sanitation and containment practices, as only they will be in
a position to bring safe meat to market when prices rise.

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Comment
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10. (SBU) The GOAM's lack of capacity and resolve to respond
effectively to the ASF outbreak is evident in the increasing
number of affected swine in Armenia and neighboring
Nagorno-Karabakh. While the onset of winter may have
temporarily slowed the virus' spread due to snow covering the
contaminated soil and reduced inter-actions between
mountainous rural areas, an accelerated resurgence of the
virus could appear after the spring thaw. Furthermore, post
questions to what extent Armenia's poor handling of the ASF
outbreak could reflect on its ability to combat epidemics
that are harmful to humans such as Avian Influenza. The
failure to date of the GOAM's compensation plan does not
augur well for farmers' continued and future cooperation with
government-ordered biosecurity measures, in addition to
potentially becoming a political liability for the government
in rural areas.
FRAZIER