GOAM'S SPIN CYCLE UNDER STATE OF EMERGENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000228

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ASEC KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: GOAM'S SPIN CYCLE UNDER STATE OF EMERGENCY

REF: A) YEREVAN 202 B) YEREVAN 213 C) YEREVAN 214

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Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 (B/D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The suspension of independent media in Armenia
following the March 1 imposition of a State of Emergency has
allowed the GOAM to construct its own narrative of recent
events without the inconvenience of opposition challenge or
independent scrutiny. Not surprisingly, the GOAM has used
this opportunity to justify the necessity of its fatal
crackdown on demonstrations while placing blame for the
events on the opposition and its supporters. Any assertions
made by the GOAM prior to the unconditional lifting of media
restrictions and the permitting of independent reporting and
investigations should be viewed with extreme skepticism. END
SUMMARY.

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LIE ABOUT A LITTLE THING, LIE ABOUT A BIG THING
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2. (C) The GOAM began trying to influence perception of
events through misleading statements even before the March 1
crackdown on demonstrations at Freedom Square. On February
29, responding to a request from the MediaMax news service,
Armenian police estimated the crowd sizes at the opposition
rallies at Freedom Square at 8,000 on Febuary 27, 7,000 on
February 28 and 6,200 on February 29. EmbOffs were in
attendance every day at these rallies, and every day
attendance clearly peaked at 30,000 or more. (Note:
Kocharian also insisted to DAS Bryza March 7 that there were
never more than 12,000 persons at Freedom Square. End Note).
The GOAM's practice of making false statements about such
easily-refuted facts and events should provoke considerable
skepticism about its other assertions.

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THE NUMBERS KILLED
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3. (C) The GOAM has consistently reported the official death
toll from the crackdown at eight, while opposition supporters
have claimed a death toll closer to 50. Thus far it has not
been possible to obtain independent information about the
actual number, though some Western news reports and visiting
officials have already begun to repeat the eight fatalities
as established fact. We have heard reports, however, that
families of persons killed in the crackdown have in some
cases been forced to sign death certificates with falsified
dates of death in order to retrieve their relatives' remains.


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SOLDIERS INJURED WHILE MERELY OBSERVING CRACKDOWN...
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4. (C) After the imposition of the state of emergency, the
chief of the armed forces, Seyran Ohanian, warned Armenians
in a televised address not to gather - even in small groups -
and said that his troops would react with severe authority to
the "slightest" sign of public display of non-sanctioned
gatherings. "I would like to warn all citizens that any
attempt to organize or participate in events prohibited under
the state of emergency would be adequately and strictly
countered by the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia."
Later, despite eyewitness accounts and video that readily
contradict his claim, Ohanian said that army troops had not
been involved in the March 1 crackdown; they allegedly had
stayed back while police acted. However, a March 6 report
from the National Security Service noted that 217 persons had
received medical treatment after the crackdown: 41 civilians,
43 policemen and "133 military servicemen."

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...AND POLICE DIDN'T FIRE AT DEMONSTRATORS
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5. (C) While the Armed Forces Chief claimed military units
had not participated in the crackdown, the GOAM claims the
police also played a limited role. The
Prosecutor General's spokesperson on March 6 said in a press
briefing that law enforcement officers "had not fired in the
direction of demonstrators," that they had only fired tracer
bullets "into the air." However, video footage (now

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circulating on YouTube) shows police or soldiers firing their
guns, and not into the air. (NOTE: To date we have heard
that one person was killed by a stray bullet while standing
on a balcony, and four others were killed by bullet wounds.
END NOTE.) The GOAM has now claimed that this footage was
"doctored" and has appealed to United Nations officials to
investigate.

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IT'S ALL THE FAULT OF THE PROTESTERS
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6. (C) GOAM public statements consistently blame
demonstrators for the violence on March 1, and claim that
police entered Freedom Square only after receiving tips that
demonstrators were assembling weapons. We, however, have
heard credible suggestions that the assault on Freedom Square
was premeditated. On March 12, Armenia's Mediamax Wire
Service reported that the Special Investigative Service's
Senior Investigator said that "in the process of preliminary
investigation, it turned out that the mass unrest was planned
and organized, was coordinated from a single center and was
directed to destabilize the situation in the country."
However, one of Kocharian's advisers recently admitted to
PolChief (Ref A) that Kocharian planned by February 29 to
clear out the demonstrators on March 1, thus lending credence
to suggestions that police had in fact planted arms and
explosives in order to have a pretext for staging the
assault. This tracks with Kocharian,s boast to CDA on
February 27 that he could "clear the square in 20 minutes."

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BELIEVING YOUR OWN PR -- Part 1
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7. (C) On March 6, during a cabinet meeting, PM Sargsian
noted that ministers have been too "passive" in the provision
of objective information on the situation in the country to
international organizations. He assured them that relevant
official reports aired by Armenia,s TV channels are
"truthful" and can be cited as proven facts "without
hesitation." In what might be his version of extending an
olive branch, Sargsian also stated that "it is necessary to
get involved in a dialogue, even if the interlocutor is
'blinded by hatred.'"

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BELIEVING YOUR OWN PR -- PART 2
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8. (C) On March 7, President Kocharian,s spokesman said that
"the world is forming a clear idea of what was happening in
Yerevan on March 1-2 in reality," and that meetings that week
with DAS Matthew Bryza, EU Special Representative Peter
Semneby and PACE Representative John Prescott in many
respects assisted that process. "I am sure that, after
getting familiar with the given chronology, no one will have
doubts about what happened in Yerevan in reality."

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CLAIMING THE USG'S SUPPORT...
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9. (C) After Deputy Assistant Secretary Matthew Bryza met
with PM Sargsian on March 6, local media reporting of the
meeting strongly implied that Bryza had agreed to the
necessity of the state of emergency "as an instrument that
helps ease tensions and leads processes towards a natural
state of affairs."

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...OR MAYBE NOT
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10. (C) However, the MFA on March 12 claimed to be
"astonished" by Bryza's comments to the Associated Press (AP)
following his visit to Armenia. "We're astonished that even
after his visit to Yerevan, after meeting with and hearing
from various official and unofficial sources, US Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza would make such
arbitrary statements," said MFA spokesman Tigran Balayan.
"Assigning such one-sided blame is unfounded and not helpful.
The number of wounded law enforcement officers (108) -- 43
of them wounded by firearms and hand grenades -- clearly
demonstrates that rioters were in possession of firearms and
explosives. That coincides with the operative information of
law enforcement agencies which had informed the public about
all this, days before the events of March 1. In that case,

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labeling the reaction of the government as 'a crackdown on
opposition protests' or qualifying it as 'harsh and brutal'
is incorrect. This was not at all an attack by policemen on
civilians."

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OSCE/ODIHR AGAIN ENDORSES ELECTION
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11. (C) After the initial OSCE/ODIHR report on the February
19 election called the election administration "mostly in
line" with international standards, the GOAM widely and
frequently claimed that ODIHR had called the election fair
and democratic. It never mentioned all the concerns ODIHR
cited. Many Western media outlets said essentially the same
thing, perhaps confirming both the ambiguity of ODIHR's
rating system and the cleverness of the GOAM's information
campaign.


12. (C) Following last week's release of the latest interim
ODIHR report, which provided a more extensive cataloguing of
irregularities but no actual negative headline (ref B),the
MFA on Monday claimed the report reaffirmed the original OSCE
conclusion. This was at best misleading, as the report only
made reference to the initial finding -- which had just been
about election administration -- and did not reaffirm it.

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SHE DIDN'T QUIT -- SHE WAS FIRED!
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13. (C) On March 6, the GOAM reported that Sargsian had
dismissed Hranush Kharatian as head of the Department on
National Minorities and Religious Issues. As we reported Ref
C, Post learned from Kharatian that she had resigned on March

3. There has been no other word of other possible
resignations (or
firings, as they might appear in the press) in the GOAM
following the events of March 1.

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MEDIA RESTRICTIONS LIFTED...
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14. (C) On March 10 President Kocharian lifted several
elements of the State of Emergency, most notably political
party activity. Media restrictions and bans on gatherings
remain in place, however. On March 12, Kocharian said that
he would soon "sign a decree on mitigating the limitations
for the work of the media, implemented in connection with the
state of emergency."

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... BUT ONLY OFFICIAL LIES PERMITTED
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15. (C) On March 12 Kocharian pledged to ease restrictions on
media operation, but warned the opposition not to stage any
new protests while political tension remained high. "Now,
under the state of emergency, we are telling you what you can
do regarding the internal political situation. After signing
the decree we will tell you what you can not do. Those
restrictions will be very narrow. They will relate to
provocative actions, the spread of overtly false information.
All of you will be much freer to express your views and
approaches, to report analyses and information in general."


16. (C) True to his word, on March 13, Kocharian modified
Item 4 of the State of Emergency decree, which used to read:
"The publications in the mass media on the issues of internal
situation and state importance are to be restricted to
official information provided by state entities only." It
now reads, "It is banned for media outlets to publish or
spread by any other means obviously false information on
state and internal political issues, destabilizing
information, urges to participate in unauthorized events."
(Comment: The GOAM has not defined what constitutes false or
destabilizing information, but it's safe to guess that it
would include any information not consistent with the GOAM
line, particularly with regard to the events of March 1-2.
End Comment).

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HAS PRESIDENT BUSH CONGRATULATED YOU?
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17. (C) Adding to nearly two weeks of GOAM prevarication, PM
Sargsian appeared on public television the evening of March

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13 to answer 80 of the more than 3,000 questions that had
been allegedly sent to him on his hastily-constructed live
journal blog. During the two-hour program in which Sargsian
sat in what appeared to be a wooden throne at the head of a
table flanked by aides with their laptops, he proceeded to
answer the questions put to him usually with terse one or two
word replies and always touting the "established chronology"
when discussing the events of March 1-2. One of the
questions asked, "Has President Bush congratulated you yet on
your election victory?" Sargsian replied that President Bush
had "already congratulated (him) when (he) became Prime
Minister." A little knowledge of protocol and a quick look
at our records proved this allegation to be patently false.

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COMMENT
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18. (C) While some of the information provided by the GOAM's
officially approved media sources may in fact be accurate,
the GOAM has not yet let up on a campaign of demonstrated and
blatant dishonesty in its media and public statements. We
are concerned that some of these statements -- notably
estimates of the number killed, the responsibility for the
crackdown on March 1, and the conclusion of the ODIHR
election report, among others -- have been repeated as
established fact in some Western circles, something that will
only encourage the GOAM to continue disseminating false
information. Therefore, any assertions made by the GOAM
prior to the unconditional lifting of media restrictions and
the permitting of independent reporting and investigations
should be viewed with extreme skepticism. END COMMENT.
PENNINGTON