Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08YEREVAN227
2008-03-14 14:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

GOAM RATCHETS UP THE PRESSURE UNDER STATE OF

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC KDEM AM 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141446Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7209
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ4/ECJ5-A/ECJ1/ECJ37// PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000227 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC KDEM AM
SUBJECT: GOAM RATCHETS UP THE PRESSURE UNDER STATE OF
EMERGENCY

REF: A) YEREVAN 200 B) YEREVAN 199

YEREVAN 00000227 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 (B/D)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000227

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC KDEM AM
SUBJECT: GOAM RATCHETS UP THE PRESSURE UNDER STATE OF
EMERGENCY

REF: A) YEREVAN 200 B) YEREVAN 199

YEREVAN 00000227 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 (B/D)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Despite recent conciliatory public statements from
President-elect Sargsian, the authorities appear to be
ratcheting up their pressure on opposition supporters with
one week left to the state of emergency. Foreign election
observers who stayed to observe Constitutional Court
proceedings reported harassment that prompted some to leave
the country prematurely. The NSS continues to search homes
and offices of opposition party members, and has arrested key
LTP lieutenants. Meanwhile, Sargsian has issued conflicting
statements about the potential arrest of Levon
Ter-Petrossian, and has previewed the imminent sacking of an
Armenian General with suspected LTP leanings. The Embassy
has received a spate of requests for political asylum as
citizens come out of the woodwork with allegations of
intimidation and harassment. END SUMMARY.

--------------
TARGETING ELECTION OBSERVERS
--------------


2. (C) In recent days the GOAM has undertaken a campaign of
harassment and intimidation against members of the OSCE/ODIHR
election observation mission (EOM). We learned from the
British Embassy that Paul O'Grady, a British citizen and the
EOM's Deputy Head of Mission, got so spooked by fear of
retaliation in the wake of the latest ODIHR interim report
(despite the GOAM's public claims that ODIHR had endorsed the
election's fairness) that he requested the Embassy's
assistance to ferret him secretly out of Armenia a day
earlier than scheduled, which they did, taking him to Georgia
in an embassy car. O'Grady told the Embassy he had done
election observation for over a decade, including in such
difficult places as Angola, and stated that he had never felt
the kind of pressure he perceived here. (NOTE: Post heard
from one member of the ODIHR mission that a senior GOAM

official had told him that the latest interim report "had
better be more positive" than the initial one. END NOTE.)
The Head of Mission, retired German Ambassador Geert Ahrens,
was more sanguine, but nonetheless accepted the German
Ambassador's offer to drive him to the airport for his
departure -- the German flag waving from the fender -- as a
show of solidarity and to head off any difficulties. Neither
man had diplomatic status.


3. (C) Authorities have continued their efforts to summon
ODIHR staff to testify in criminal cases being developed
against persons alleged to have been involved in electoral
violations, a violation of ODIHR's customary neutrality.
Ahrens was served a summons by the Gyumri prosecutor, which
he then deposited at the Presidency, with Senior Adviser
Vigen Sargsian, saying that the Presidency should resolve it.
Gyumri prosecutors and police have continued in their
efforts to demand documents from Karen Gayner, the Canadian
ODIHR legal analyst who remained behind after most of the
core team left in order to monitor the Constitutional Court
proceedings. She refused either to supply any documents, or
to heed a Gyumri policeman's insistence that she sign a
document. She also stated there have been indications that
police may summon ODIHR-contracted Armenian interpreters for
questioning or to testify in court proceedings. She made
arrangements with the permanent OSCE Office in Yerevan to
help run interference if these people are summoned by police.


--------------
THOSE RUMOR-MONGERING CAB DRIVERS!
--------------


4. (SBU) In a new step in its effort to control the flow of
information, an Embassy FSN reported a recent conversation
with a taxi driver who mentioned that his dispatch office had
been recently visited by Armenia's National Security Service
(NSS) and issued a warning to cease backseat gossip with
passengers. This is consistent with a March 12 public
comment by President Kocharian about "rumors" making the
rounds in society, and his plans to lighten media
restrictions to help staunch their spread.

--------------

YEREVAN 00000227 002.2 OF 004


DETENTION OF WITNESSES...
--------------


5. (C) Post has learned of numerous instances in which
persons with relatively minor involvement with the opposition
have been detained at least briefly by the NSS, usually in an
effort to obtain information about the whereabouts of other
opposition figures. Last week a college acquaintance
frantically called a POL-ECON FSN to report that unidentified
individuals were trying to break down her door. An assistant
to fugitive MP Khachatur Sukiasian who had his parliamentary
immunity stripped on March 4, she was eventually detained by
NSS officers as police arrived at the scene. (NOTE: The
Embassy alerted the police to the break-in as it was taking
place. END NOTE.) She and her companion inside the home
were taken to an undisclosed location for several hours of
questioning before being released.

--------------
...AND POSSIBLE INTIMIDATION
--------------


6. (C) Meanwhile, those who saw things they should not have
during the March 1 crackdown may be under pressure to recant
their accounts. At the National Assembly session on March 4,
Heritage Party MP Stepan Safarian said he saw a police car
run over two opposition demonstrators. Several days later,
the Azg (Nation) newspaper reported that Safarian had
recanted, and told prosecutors that he had only heard about
this from another witness and had not seen it himself.
However, this week Safarian directly told us that he had in
fact witnessed the incident and had never told the police
otherwise.

--------------
ASYLUM REQUESTS
--------------


7. (C) Following the March 1 crackdown, post has received
about a dozen requests for political asylum, most from
persons who say they or their families are being harassed and
intimidated by the GOAM due to their opposition political
activity or participation in the post-election
demonstrations. One of the requests came from the
93-year-old mother of Karabakh War Veteran Leader and MP
Myasnik Malkhasyan, who was arrested and had his
parliamentary immunity stripped on March 4. Another war
veteran leader from eastern Armenia also requested political
asylum by email, saying he was in hiding from the authorities
who were persecuting him for his support of LTP. In
addition, two persons appeared unannounced at the consular
section to make asylum requests. Post has directed most of
these persons to UNHCR. Post has also received about a dozen
requests for information about immigration to the U.S. While
none of these explicitly mentioned the post-March 1 events,
in the previous nine months post has received perhaps two or
three such requests, an indicator that the recent uptick is
likely due to the current turmoil.

--------------
THE DRAGNET ON OPPOSITION CONTINUES...
--------------


8. (C) The GOAM has continued its dragnet to arrest LTP
supporters, netting the third of four opposition MPs who were
stripped of their parliamentary immunity on March 4. Two of
the MPs, Hakob Hakopian and Myasnik Malkhasian, were arrested
and brought to the National Assembly when the body voted to
rescind their immunity. The third, Sasun Mikaelyan, was
apprehended on the evening of March 12, and charged under
Articles 225 and 300 (organization of massive disorders and
"usurpation of power"). Since the February 19 presidential
election, 97 LTP supporters have reportedly been arrested,
and LTP's camp calls them all political prisoners. On March
10, former Armenian Foreign Minister Aleksander Arzumanian
and Ararat Zurabian, the former chairman of LTP's now-defunct
Armenian Pan-National Movement, were also arrested and
charged under the same articles.

-------------- -
WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM THEIR GEORGIAN FRIENDS
-------------- -


9. (C) LTP confidant David Shahnazarian told CDA on March 13
that two other "low-level" LTP supporters arrested in the
past few days had been captured in Georgia, apparently with
the cooperation of Georgian law enforcement authorities and

YEREVAN 00000227 003.2 OF 004


in the absence of any formal extradition procedure. He
further claimed that Georgian police have been posting photos
of two other Armenian fugitives -- pro-LTP oligarch Khachatur
Sukiasian and Haykakan Zhamanak (Armenian Times) editor Nicol
Pashinian -- and are actively trying to locate them.

--------------
THE FATE OF THE MUTINOUS GENERAL
--------------


10. (C) During the post-election demonstrations, LTP claimed
to have the support of Deputy Defense Minister General Manvel
Grigorian. Grigorian, a Karabakhi, never made any public
show of support for LTP, but made his loyalties known more
discreetly. However, we have heard that Grigoryan lobbied
Defense Minister Harutiunian not to allow the use of the
armed forces in quelling any opposition demonstrations. In
its nightly bulletin on March 13, Armenian Public Television
-- the official mouthpiece of the government -- referenced PM
Sargsian's regrets that Grigoryan "made an attempt not to
obey the orders of the chief commander," and that the
circumstances of the case should be studied. Grigoryan has
not yet resigned or been fired, but Sargsian's first public
comments suggest this may be just a matter of time.

--------------
NO RALLIES WITHOUT A PERMIT...
--------------


11. (C) The State of Emergency bars political rallies, and
LTP has pledged not to organize any rally until the ban is
lifted, and even then pledges to hold only legally sanctioned
rallies. While announcing March 12 that various elements of
the state of emergency (SOE) had been lifted, and that he had
no plans to extend the SOE, President Kocharian nonetheless
warned the opposition against new protest rallies in Yerevan.
Kocharian told state-run television, "Imagine if we give
permission to hold rallies, and the people who participated
in the unrest and clashes with the police and the
representatives of law-enforcement bodies gather at one
square, I cannot imagine what the 'communication' will be..."

--------------
...AND DON'T EVEN THINK OF APPLYING FOR ONE
--------------


12. (C) Earlier this week, Artak Zeinalyan (a member of the
Republic Party, and one of LTP's legal counsels before the
Constitutional Court) submitted an application for LTP to
hold a rally at Freedom Square on March 21, the day after the
SOE is set to end. The city denied the permit, and not long
after, Zeinalyan received an anonymous call warning him to
stay home (and presumably not file any more applications) if
he wanted to keep himself and his family safe. (NOTE:
Zeinalyan happens to be disabled. END NOTE.) Zeinalyan's
wife received a similar call a short time later. On March
14, another LTP supporter, Lyudmila Sargsian, President of
the Social Democratic Hnchak Party, had her apartment
searched and was summoned to the police. The previous day
she had filed applications to the city for rallies on March
22, 23 and 24.

--------------
LTP WILL NOT BE ARRESTED...OR WILL HE?
--------------


13. (C) GOAM officials have spoken inconsistently but loudly
about the possible fate of LTP. Speaking to students at the
Armenian State University of Economics on March 11, Sargsian
denied rumors that the GOAM had plans for LTP's imminent
arrest. These followed remarks by Armenia's Prosecutor
General (PG) and Justice Minister, respectively, who had
previewed the arrest. PG Aghvan Hovsepian had previously
stated publicly that he possessed enough information to
prosecute LTP, asserting that opposition protest had been
"managed from one center," in apparent reference to LTP's
role in the March 1 violence. Justice Minister Gevorg
Danielian told an AFP reporter March 10 essentially the same
thing, and added LTP "has crossed from the political sphere
to the criminal sphere." But PM Sargsian muddied the waters
in his address to students, declaring "Levon Ter-Petrossian's
fate will be primarily decided by the people, not now," and
then in the same breath said, "Talk of Levon Ter-Petrossian
being arrested today or tomorrow is not true. Neither are
the claims that nobody will dare arrest him."

--------------

YEREVAN 00000227 004.2 OF 004


MOVING THE GOAL POSTS IN MID-GAME?
--------------


14. (C) On March 14, the GOAM submitted to parliament
legislative amendments to the law on "Providing Security To
People Subject to Special State Protection" that apparently
would force security personnel to cease their duties in the
event of criminal activity by the person they protect. As
its title implies, this law pertains to persons who enjoy
special state protection, including former presidents, state
officials, public, political and religious figures. The
draft legislation appears squarely directed at LTP. During
one of the rallies at Freedom Square, LTP had told the crowd
that police had moved to disarm his bodyguards without any
explanation. His bodyguards refused, citing a law that
entitled the ex-President to have armed protection. Justice
Minister Gevorg Danielian confirmed to an Armenian wire
service on March 14 that the draft law is directly related to
the post-election events in Yerevan.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


15. (C) The authorities' aggressive pursuit of LTP supporters
during the SOE seriously undercuts the PM's public rhetoric
about reconciliation. As events testify, harassment and
intimidation of opposition figures and their supporters
continues unabated, and appears to be even intensifying as
the SOE draws to its presumed end. While we continue to
encourage confidence-building measures both in public and
private, we have now begun to privately question the
authorities on the apparent disconnect between their words
and deeds. END COMMENT.
PENNINGTON