VOICES FROM ARMENIA'S FREEDOM SQUARE: IT'S NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000209

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM AM
SUBJECT: VOICES FROM ARMENIA'S FREEDOM SQUARE: IT'S NOT
ABOUT LTP, IT'S ABOUT TAKING BACK OUR COUNTRY

REF: A. YEREVAN 164


B. YEREVAN 161

C. YEREVAN 160

YEREVAN 00000209 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (U) This cable was mostly drafted late February 29, before
police cleared the protesters from Freedom Square March 1,
and the subsequent chaos. After some thought, we have
decided to transmit it anyway, as a small window into what
continues to be an important constituency.

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SUMMARY
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2. (C) Emboff visited Freedom Square February 28 to gauge
protesters' views of the unfolding situation. The standoff
between ex-president Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) and Armenian
authorities had entered its ninth day of protests, 36 hours
before police cleared the square. More than a few protesters
at the square on February 28 admitted they were not LTP
supporters at all, but attending the rallies to "save our
country." For many, the protests had morphed from a
rejection of falsified election results into what they deemed
a principled stand against Armenia falling irretrievably
under the arbitrary rule of a clique of kleptocrats. Some
considered the flawed election a personal insult to their
dignity. Protesters at the time expressed confidence that
the authorities would not resort to force, but warned of a
massive popular backlash if they did. LTP loyalists also
expressed certitude that in a newly held election, their
candidate would win hands down, now that the Armenian people
had seen "the regime" for what it truly is. END SUMMARY.

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"THIS IS OUR LAST CHANCE"
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2. (C) On February 28, Emboff visited Freedom Square to speak
with Armenian citizens attending around-the-clock protests
initiated by LTP to dispute the results of the February 19
presidential election that controversially went to Prime
Minister Serzh Sargsian. During several hours of
discussions, Emboff spoke with husband-and-wife LTP
supporters who had served as election day proxies (registered
candidate representatives/observers in a polling station) in
the northern city of Stepanavan; a recently fired Armenian
diplomat who used to head the Americas Division at the MFA
before she and five of her colleagues publicly denounced the
conduct of the election; and a dozen elderly and middle-aged
Armenian citizens -- some of whom did not vote for LTP -- who
had been attending the afternoon portion of protests on a
daily basis. Some of these individuals had spent multiple
nights on sub-freezing Freedom Square, maintaining all-night
vigils around bonfires and catching up on sleep during the
day. Unshaven and unfazed about the risks they were taking
to support the protests, almost all said they were doing so
"to save" their country.


3. (C) Karine Afrikian, the former Head of the Americas
Department at the MFA who was fired by FM Oskanian on
February 25 for having publicly denounced the conduct of the
February 19 presidential election with five of her MFA
colleagues, told Emboff the protests were Armenia's "last
chance" to salvage any hopes for democracy that people had
after the country gained independence in 1991. She despaired
that "we can't lose," or else Armenians "would lose our
country." Elderly protesters echoed her sentiment, stating
they were attending the daily protests to "save our country"
from corruption and the perpetuation of a perceived corrupt
regime. If Armenians let the vote stand as is, one
middle-aged man said, then "Robert's son and Serzh's
relatives" will take over after "Serzh." One woman said "we
are here to say 'no' to the regime."

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"WE'LL LEAVE THE COUNTRY"
--------------


4. (C) Both Afrikian and two of the elderly protesters said
that if LTP lost the current battle with authorities, there
would be no sense in staying in Armenia, and that "we'll
leave the country." Afrikian noted that her decision to
denounce the elections meant she would never be given a
government job again -- at least while the current regime was
in control. She had confided to Emboff the evening before on

YEREVAN 00000209 002.2 OF 003


the square that she and her colleagues had felt compelled to
denounce the elections and support the "courageous" stand
taken by three Armenian ambassadors and a deputy foreign
minister who had also publicly refuted the election results
and were promptly fired. (NOTE: Since March 1, half a dozen
Armenian citizens have approached the Embassy to request
political asylum in the United States. Anecdotal reports
also suggest that some citizens have departed Armenia for
Georgia and Russia in the wake of the violence. Many civil
society representives have also begun to speak of emigration.
END NOTE.)

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THE YOUNG GENERATION WILL BE LOST
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5. (C) Echoing concerns expressed by others on the square,
Afrikian warned that a perpetuation of the ruling regime, and
its kleptocratic ways, would spawn outmigration of talented
youth and doom those youth who stay to living in a
criminalized society. She stated that bright youth were
disaffected with society, and continued to look overseas to
realize their aspirations, as they had since Armenian
independence. But what she found more dangerous was the fact
that the youth who stayed in Armenia would become resigned to
living in a "criminalized" society where they "won't have any
chance" to survive but by adapting to the system.

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TURNING ARMENIANS INTO "ASSES"
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6. (C) The middle-aged husband-wife LTP supporters from
Stepanavan stressed that the presidential election was no
longer just about "Serzh versus LTP." "We have a right to
have normal elections," they exclaimed, and the authorities
do not have the right "to turn the entire Armenian population
into asses." The couple, one of whom served as LTP's
election proxy on election day, said "we saw" what the
authorities did on election day, using violence,
intimidation, and ballot box stuffing to take the vote. The
wife said she didn't want Armenia to "return to the times" of
the Soviet Union. "If we accept the results," she said, "we
won't be normal people."

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CONFIDENT OF NO VIOLENCE
--------------


7. (C) Almost all of the protesters expressed confidence that
the authorities would not resort to force to end the
protests. They said doing so would be a huge blunder that
would create a popular public backlash. The LTP proxy from
Stepanavan said "we have the moral high ground," and that
they were conducting the protests peacefully while exhausting
all of the legal options afforded them by Armenia's
constitution. When asked what would happen if the
authorities tried to sideline LTP -- whether legally or not
-- the elderly people Emboff spoke with said they would still
come to the square, "as would others."


8. (C) The wife of the LTP proxy from Stepanavan was less
certain that violence would be avoided. She said she worried
for her two college-age children who came to the protests
after classes, and for others. Afrikian said she spent the
first two nights on the square and feared the worst. But she
said she respected the courage LTP was showing by standing up
to the authorities, and thought that only a leader "who is
unafraid, and willing to risk it all," could help set Armenia
back on a democratic course.

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AUTHORITIES RAMP UP THE PRESSURE ...
--------------


9. (C) The Stepanavan couple and Afrikian said the
authorities were upping their pressure on loyalists around
the country and within the government to stamp out any
possible or real LTP sympathies. According to the Stepanavan
LTP proxy, as of the morning of February 28 on roads leading
out of Stepanavan and Vanadzor, road police were still
stopping vehicles and questioning people on their travel
plans and destination. "We are getting through," he laughed,
"by saying we are Serzh supporters." Some of the elderly
said Public TV was a disgrace for its virtual media blackout
on the protests, saying the country did not know what was
transpiring in the square. Almost all said they were

YEREVAN 00000209 003.2 OF 003


relaying the news to distant relatives by cell phone, and
that where once they had been politically apathetic were now
being harangued by calls for updates nonstop. Afrikian said
colleagues of hers in various ministries had reported feeling
a Soviet-era chill of repression in the last week, with
employees afraid to express their views on the current
situation. She said some colleagues had complained to her
that they had been forced to sign a declaration they would
attend president-elect Sargsian's February 26 rally in
Republic Square.

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... BUT LTP WILL EASILY WIN NEW ELECTION
--------------


10. (C) The protesters said they were virtually certain LTP
would win a newly held presidential election. The LTP
Stepanavan proxy declared the political calculus had changed
now that Armenians fully grasped the extent of the "stolen"
election, and seen "the regime" for what it truly is. He
predicted that those Sargsian loyalists who had committed
dirty tricks on election day now knew -- and feared -- that
they could not get away with such chicanery a second time.
"The people will be watching," he grinned confidently, and
"the pressure will be on them" to not interfere in a new
election. Afrikian seconded this line of thinking, saying
the falsification of the election had consolidated new
supporters for LTP, who would reap a larger, more bona fide
protest vote against the ruling regime.
PENNINGTON