ARMENIAN SUPREME ALLEGES FIXED DECISION AGAINST LTP

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000199

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO, JUSTICE FOR CARL
ALEXANDRE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN SUPREME ALLEGES FIXED DECISION AGAINST LTP


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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b/d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) Late on March 6, Valery Poghossian, one of Armenia's
nine Constitutional Court justices, secretly approached the
Embassy for an urgent meeting at his home. Poghossian
alleged to Emboffs that President Kocharian has fixed the
court's upcoming March 8 decision to decide against the
complaint by ex-president Levon Ter-Petrossian alleging vote
fraud in the disputed February 19 presidential election.
Poghossian said he personally had been pressured by the
Presidency, and alleged some of his colleagues had as well.
The justice said "absolute tyranny" now prevailed in Armenia,
and fretted the fixed decision could have "unpredictable
consequences" for the country. He warned that if the
international community allowed the authorities off the hook
after the fixed decision, it would do irreversible damage to
Armenia, and doom any fading hopes the country still has for
democracy. END SUMMARY.

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FIXED DECISION
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2. (S) Constitutional Court Justice Valery Poghossian
secretly approached the Embassy late on March 6 to request an

SIPDIS
urgent meeting at his home. Poghossian is one of nine
justices who sit on Armenia's Constitutional Court, and was
one of the court's first appointments in 1996. The court is
currently hearing a case brought by ex-president Levon
Ter-Petrossian (LTP) requesting the invalidation of the
February 19 presidential election result. LTP claims that
the election results are fraudulent, and that a new election
should be held. LTP finished second in the disputed
presidential election, gaining 21.5 percent of the vote,
while Prime Minister and President-elect Serzh Sargsian
tallied 52.8 percent -- enough to avoid a second-round
run-off. The disputed results triggered an 11-day protest by
LTP supporters that ended in bloody clashes with security
forces on March 1-2, and the declaration of a state of
emergency by current president Robert Kocharian.


3. (S) The frail and grim-looking Poghossian apologized to
Emboffs for approaching the embassy, but said he had nowhere
else to go with his concerns. He explained that he recahed
out secretly to Embassy officials because "I know what
America stands for." He alleged that President Robert
Kocharian has fixed the upcoming decision of the
Constitutional Court, set for March 8, that will rule against
LTP's election result complaint. Late on March 4, on the eve
of the court's hearing of LTP's complaint, Poghossian said he
was contacted by phone and summoned to the Presidency by
someone speaking on behalf of the president's chief of staff.
Initially taken back by the call, he said he laughed at the
caller before refusing the summoning. He then ignored
repeated calls placed to his office that evening.


4. (S) Poghossian alleged that at least three of his
colleagues answered similar summons to the presidency earlier
on March 4, though he cannot prove it. He said he obtained
this information from reliable sources who saw the justices
inside presidential offices that day. He also told Emboffs
that the presidency threatened to fire his brother who works
there if he could not convince Poghossian to answer the
summoning. Poghossian, who has been absent from the court's
hearing of the complaint the last three days, and as a result
cannot participate in the final decision, said illness
prevented him from being present. But he confided that even
if he were healthy, he would not appear at the hearings.


5. (S) When Poghossian said he raised the issue of
presidential pressure with his justice colleagues, his
concerns were "rejected." He also alleged that one of the
judges, Justice Kim Balayan, has been co-opted by the
authorities via the recent appointment of his son Tigran
Balayan as the new spokesman at the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs. (Note: The former spokesman, Vladimir Karapetian,
was fired with five other diplomats in late February after
publicly criticizing the authorities' handling of the
election. End note.) Poghossian said his stance on the

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case, and absence from the hearing, could have personal
consequences for him after the hearing, though he did not
specify what those were. He confided, however, that he had
"grounds to be scared." He also noted that if not for the
pressure they were being subjected to, almost all of the
justices would decide in LTP's favor.

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"UNPREDICTABLE CONSEQUENCES" OF COURT DECISION
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6. (S) Poghossian averred that the court's fixed decision
could be "catalytic" in escalating existing tensions and
fomenting new violence. He said "absolute tyranny" now
prevailed in Armenia, where it was impossible to solve issues
by legal means. He said the current "moral and
psychological" atmosphere created by the ruling regime, in
addition to the declaration of the state of emergency and its
very harsh restrictions, placed the Constitutional Court
under great pressure to hew the directives of the
authorities.


7. (S) Poghossian said it was clear the authorities intended
to resolve the situation in their favor by resorting to fear
tactics and repression. As examples, he cited the
authorities' violent dispersal of protesters on March 1 and
fostering the bloodshed that ensued; the subsequent arrests
and searches for protesters and LTP supporters; the illegal
trials that have taken place afterwards (in apparent
reference to the stripping of immunity of four members of
parliament and the nature of the Constitutional Court case);
and the president's vicious public attack on Armenia's Human
Rights Defender (ombudsman) who issued a critical report of
the authorities' mishandling of the weekend events. All of
these events are designed to do one thing, Poghossian
contended, and that is to "strike fear" into genuine and
would-be opponents of the regime. He said the President will
brook no dissent, and sees people through the lens of either
being "with or against" him.


8. (C) Despite the climate of fear the authorities seek to
create, Poghossian said it was conceivable that LTP could
attract hundreds of thousands of supporters in the street
after the lifting of the state of emergency. In this case,
Poghossian said he did not rule out a scenario where the
authorities would extend, or reimpose emergency control if
they felt their grip on power was being challenged. He also
said the authorities were brazen enough to follow through on
their threat to arrest LTP, even though they had no legal
right to do so. But "they can do anything they want to"
lamented Poghossian.

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DON'T LET THE AUTHORITIES OFF THE HOOK -- DEMOCRACY AT STAKE
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9. (S) Poghossian said he took great comfort from the
post-election statements by the State Department that flagged
problems with the presidential election. And he welcomed all
of the strongly worded statements made by the international
community following the violence over the weekend. But
Poghossian warned that "all of these statements could be
wasted" after the court's decision if the international
community let the authorities off the hook. He gravely noted
that recognition of the court decision as the final word on
the election would legitimize the fraud undertaken by the
regime. Even worse, Poghossian stated, was the irreversible
damage that recognition, and bolstering the regime, could do
to Armenia. He characterized the moment as a decisive one,
where he said any fading hopes of democracy hung in the
balance.

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NOTHING RULED OUT
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10. (S) During the meeting, Poghossian shared that at various
points in the 1990s he headed the KGB and national police in
Armenia. Emboffs proceeded to quiz him on post-violence
reports of unreported dead, and allegations that army units
from Nagorno-Karabakh were brought in to quell the violence.
He said information made available to him "by virtue of who I
used to be" suggests the reports are not entirely baseless.

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He said he had information that the death toll had been
reduced by the authorities, and that some families had been
forced to sign fabricated death certificates before they were
allowed to recover relatives' remains. He said he ruled
nothing out, given the nature of the regime.

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COMMENT
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11. (S) We have no way of confirming Justice Poghossian's
allegations, but the fact that one of Armenia's
highest-ranking public servants reached out the way he did is
revealing in itself. Poghossian was appointed Justice during
the LTP administration, and while he didn't hide his
political sympathies, it's possible that recent political
events have jaundiced his views. That said, his apprehension
appeared bona fide, and Emboffs had the sense he was acting
out of a feeling of patriotism for his country. END COMMENT.

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BIOGRAPHICAL NOTE
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12. (S) Valery Poghossian was born March 25, 1944 in Armenia,
is married, has two children and is fluent in Armenian and
Russian. He was appointed to the Constitutional Court in
1996 during the presidential administration of Levon
Ter-Petrossian, one of the first justices appointed to the
court. From 1991-92, he was Minister of the Interior, and
from 1992-93 Head of National Police (or National Security
State Department). From 1993-1996 he was Advisor to the
Chairman of the Supreme Council, which effectively meant he
was second in command to Levon Ter-Petrossian in what is now
the Armenian parliament, or National Assembly. He has a
scientific training by background, having studied physics at
Yerevan State University from 1961-66, and a Ph.D from the
same institution in 1974. He is the author of five books on
political science, democracy and law, human rights, and
constitutional law. He currently also teaches political
science at the prestigious Brusov Qnguage Institute in
Yerevan where he told Emboffs he always begins his courses
with a study of America's Declaration of Independence.

PENNINGTON