ARMENIA SITREP: ARMY CALLED IN TO RESTORE ORDER;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000186

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DS/IP/EUR, DS/IP/ITA
NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV ASEC CASC PREL PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA SITREP: ARMY CALLED IN TO RESTORE ORDER;
STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED; 8 DEAD; EX-PRESIDENT UNDER DE
FACTO HOUSE ARREST; CALM IN CAPITAL

REF: YEREVAN 179

YEREVAN 00000186 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Calm prevailed in Yerevan March 3, after pitched
battles between opposition protesters and security forces
ended in the early hours of March 2. Official GOAM reports
state that eight people died in the armed clashes, 33 police
were injured, and 100-200 injured overall, although a higher
death toll is widely suspected. Authorities declared a state
of emergency in Yerevan through March 20. Heavily armed
police and military units are posted throughout the city. A
media blackout has been placed in effect, with media
authorized only to broadcast officially-sanctioned
information on the Situation, and independent on-line wire
services and blogs shut down. There is widespread public
skepticism of the official story that protesters in Freedom
Square had been armed before authorities used force to clear
them out. Ex-president Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) remains
under de facto house arrest, and has called on his supporters
to postpone further protests until the end of the state of
emergency. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Relative calm reigns in downtown Yerevan as of 16:00
local time, 36 hours after the end of pitched clashes between
protesters hurling Molotov cocktails and riot police shooting
tracer fire overhead. The battles erupted just after 21:00
local time on various downtown streets adjacent to the
Italian, French, and Russian embassies, as well as city hall,
the "Moscow House" and a small adjacent shopping district.
The confrontation ended at approximately 04:30 on March 2.
The overall number of protesters ranged between 15,000 -
25,000, but their size gradually shrank in the early hours of
March 2, when protesters effectively disbanded after a key
LTP ally read a statement from the ex-president urging them
to disperse. Over the course of Saturday afternoon, March 1,
the demonstrators had armed themselves with numerous
makeshift weapons -- rocks and paving stones, Molotov
cocktails, pipes and lengths of wood -- and had constructed a
layered defense of barricades using commandeered vehicles,
park benches, and other local materials. By mid/late
afternoon, a significant cohort (several thousand) of the
crowd were clearly spoiling for a fight. However, contrary
to the official government position, and based on numerous
firsthand accounts from a wide range of sources (including
emboffs),we have seen no evidence that anyone among the
crowd of protesters had firearms or anything other than
makeshift weaponry. We believe that all firearms were in the
hands of government forces.


3. (C) Government forces began their assault on the
protesters' fortified positions at about 21:10 -- as poloff
was on the phone with an opposition negotiator attempting to
broker a last-minute settlement between the two sides.
Security forces began their action by firing thousands of
rounds into the air, including tracer bullets along with
conventional rounds, seemingly with the purpose of scaring
away protesters with a noisy show of force. This seemed to
have some effect in scattering the less committed members of
the mob, but a sizeable core group of supporters stayed on,
chanting "Levon, Levon." They were urged on by radical LTP
ally Nicol Pashinian and other cheerleaders. Riot police
then tried to clear the mob with a shield charge, but were
pushed back. There are indications that some police or
soldiers eventually did turn their weapons fire directly on
protesters, but this seems to have been very limited. The
situation remained stalemated until a statement arrived from
LTP urging the crowd to disperse, which it then promptly did,
leaving just a small band of several dozen of the most
dogmatic for police to clear away. Overall, protesters had
effectively controlled an area of four square blocks for
about twelve hours, indulging in some small-scale looting
(most notably of a food store, from which they looted booze
and foodstuffs) and burned out a number of cars, including
police vehicles.


4. (C) LTP had earlier urged protesters to remain in the
streets until he personally came to their position, but he
eventually changed this stance in the early hours of March 2.
An attempt to enlist the Catholicos (head of the Armenian

YEREVAN 00000186 002.2 OF 004


church) as an intermediary to negotiate an end to the crisis
was reportedly rebuffed by LTP. Other LTP allies, such as
David Shahnazarian and Levon Zurabian, had negotiated with
police March 1 to relocate the crowd to Matenaderan
manuscript museum (a frequent venue for political events),
but the crowd refused to go. The government's human rights
ombudsman was also on the scene attempting to negotiate
peacefully, as were two members of parliament from the
opposition Heritage Party, but without success.


5. (C) Late on March 1 the Armenian Parliament convened an
extraordinary session where they approved the presidential
declaration of a state of emergency in Yerevan (septel),
effective through March 20 (unless extended),which prohibits
all public gatherings and rallies and forbids political news
broadcasts. During the evening of March 1, army units were
deployed to the capital, with armored personnel carriers and
troops taking up position around the city. On March 2, Army
Chief of Staff Colonel-General Seyran Ohanyan warned citizens
in a televised statement to avoid gathering in public, even
in small numbers. He declared that soldiers would "strictly"
counter any attempts to stage new anti-government rallies.
Army units on March 2 continued to patrol government
installations, key squares and parks, and streets and
bridges. Police units closed off certain streets leading to
the center of town, but these checkpoints were lifted as of
early morning March 3.


6. (C) Official reports state that eight died as a result of
the clashes, including an innocent bystander struck by a
stray bullet as she watched events unfold on her balcony.
Protesters represent most of the fatalities reported so far,
but there are rumors that the death toll is higher. 33
police were injured in the clashes, and Armenia's Health
Minister said on March 2 that 230 people had been treated so
far at Yerevan hospitals. When special forces tried to break
up one end of the assembled protesters at approximately
21:10, media reports declared that bullets could be heard
overhead, but their source could not be ascertained. Emboffs
residing near the clashes heard shooting and explosions from
Molotov cocktails, which picked up around midnight on March
1, and RSO personnel saw tracer fire in the air at the same
time. One member of parliament was apparently stabbed during
the clashes when he tried to stop several people from beating
a policeman. The MP later alleged the beating was a
provocation undertaken by authorities to put protesters in a
negative light. He was subsequently hospitalized and remains
in stable condition.


7. (C) According to data provided by LTP aides, over 50
protesters were detained following the clearing of Freedom
Square early on March 1 and afterwards. Among those detained
at that point and then subsequently released were ex-prime
minister Hrant Bagratian, former foreign minister Alexander
Arzumanian, and current chairman of LTP's Armenian National
Movement, Ararat Zurabian. Two members of parliament, who
supposedly posses immunity from criminal prosecution, were
also detained late on March 2 for planning a coup d'etat.
Both are key leaders of two different Karabakh war veteran
organizations. Among the reported detained also figure two
U.S. citizens, who are currently being held by the National
Security Service. LTP's camp says three of their supporters
are still unaccounted for.


8. (C) Poloffs surveyed the aftermath of the clashes at
approximately 11:00 am on March 2 in the downtown area, where
the army had dispatched hundreds of troops, positioned
heavily armored personnel carriers, medical vans, and
concertina wire. An area of about 2 square miles, including
the perpendicular thoroughfares connecting the adjacent
Italian and French embassies with Yerevan's municipality and
the Russian diplomatic mission were strewn with overturned
buses, army jeeps and vans, many of which had been burned out
during the clashes. Rocks, glass, and debris littered the
streets, and some storefronts had been vandalized and looted.
(NOTE: Protesters deny police reports that they were to
blame for the destruction of private property, and accuse the
authorities of using provocateurs to tar the otherwise
peaceful opposition. END NOTE.) The intersection connecting
downtown with Victory Bridge still had a tipped-over bus and
several yards of landscaping dirt barricading the road.
Police cruisers were using their loudspeakers to order
bystanders to disperse and leave the various scenes.


YEREVAN 00000186 003.2 OF 004



9. (C) Ex-president and opposition leader Levon
Ter-Petrossian remained under de facto house arrest on March

3. A Poloff in the vicinity of LTP's home at 13:00 local
time on March 2 witnessed security forces stop and check
LTP's armored vehicle (inside and trunk) as it tried to leave
the premises. The 20 or so security forces also stopped and
thoroughly searched a vehicle with LTP aides that
subsequently arrived at the scene. LTP aides tells us that
none of LTP's political lieutenants are allowed into the
house, except for David Shahnazarian. Shahnazarian's
daughter is married to LTP's son, and the couple lives in
LTP's house, so Shahnazarian is granted access as a family
member. In the afternoon of March 1, Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian publicly stated LTP was not under house arrest, that
he was free to leave his home if he signed a document
acknowledging that security forces could not guarantee his
safety outside his residence, and if he also forsook the
services of his current bodyguards from Armenia's State
Protection Service (SPS),an offer the ex-president has yet
to accept. In subsequent press conferences that LTP has
given in his Soviet-era presidential mansion, he has asked
his supporters to refrain from gathering anew until the end
of the state of emergency on March 20.


10. (C) The state of emergency also prescribes a media
blackout, with all news outlets forbidden to publish any
information on the current political situation which is not
furnished by the state. Armenia's on-line news agencies
stopped updating their own reports on the situation late on
March 1, though the Prague-based Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty site has continued their own English-language
reporting. Radio Liberty broadcasts are no longer being
carried on Armenian radio affiliates. Even before the state
of emergency had been declared late on March 1, local feeds
of the Paris-broadcast Euronews (in Russian and Armenia
languages) and U.S.-broadcast CNN were interrupted whenever
Armenia-related news appeared. Late-breaking reports
indicate that security agencies on March 3 have begun to bar
access to various independent on-line websites. At 13:30
local time, the independent A1Plus wire service said the
National Security Service had shut down access to its
website. Lragir.am, another independent wire service,
reported the same thing. Panorama.am says they are posting
only official information on their site, as prescribed by the
state of emergency, but their site has also apparently been
blocked. The Armenian version website of RFE/RL has also
been blocked, but audio news can still be accessed through
the RFE/RL armenialiberty.org website.


11. (C) Average citizens on the street appear visibly upset
by developments in the capital. While dozens of young army
recruits in full battle dress patrolled a popular market area
and public park, local market vendors told Poloff in the
early evening of March 2 that they were sickened by the turn
of events, and blamed the authorities for the senseless loss
of life and pitting of innocent citizens against one another.
None of the 20 or so surveyed late on March 2 believed the
official televised version of events -- whereby police
decided to clear Freedom Square early on March 1 after
learning that protesters had recently armed themselves.
Almost everyone rhetorically asked why protesters didn't use
any of the weapons shown on TV -- grenades, pistols, metal
bars, homemade metal instruments -- if they indeed held them
in their possession.


12. (C) The violence that erupted on March 1 has resulted in
the postponement of a planned visit by a top Vatican envoy.
The Vatican's number two, Secretary of State Cardinal
Taarcisio Bertone, was scheduled to visit Armenia March 2-6,
but postponed his visit in light of current events. Vatican
flags that had been placed around the city on February 29
were abruptly removed by the morning of March 3. The
Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) dispatched a
special envoy on March 2 to try to mediate between the
government and the opposition. OSCE envoy Heikki Talvitie,
former European Union Special Representative for the South
Caucasus from 2003 to 2006, was dispatched by OSCE
chairman-in-office, Finish Foreign Minister Ilkka Kanerva.
In a public statement, Kanerva urged the authorities to
release those detained during the violence, and for both
sides to engage in dialogue to avoid further casualties and
further escalation of tension.


13. (U) On March 2, president-elect and Prime Minister Serzh

YEREVAN 00000186 004.2 OF 004


Sargsian issued a statement to Armenian's citizens on the
events of the last two days. The text follows:

"Dear countrymen, as a result of the recent events, our
people have suffered heavy losses: there were victims among
both policemen who were carrying out their duty, and
protesters who fell under the influence of a group of people.
Hundreds of citizens suffered as a result of the illegal
actions of the radical opposition.

The revolutionary leaders of the so-called "movement" made
those who defended public order and their supporters the
target of their insatiable ambitions. The organizers and
inciters of the disorders will still answer for all this
before the law, history and future generations. I note with
pain that our compatriots became the victims of blind hatred
of some people.

Today I share everyone's grief and wish all of you strength
and spirit to overcome this disaster.
End text.
PENNINGTON