RULING PARTY OFFICIAL OFFERS INSIGHTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000178

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC KDEM AM
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY OFFICIAL OFFERS INSIGHTS


Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Republican Party official Samvel Nikoyan
offered confidential, personal insights on the political
standoff. He reported that President Kocharian and
President-elect/PM Sargsian have very different strategies,
with Kocharian favoring a "get tough" approach, and Sargsian
prefering to negotiate with and/or outwait the opposition.
Nikoyan said that Artur Baghdassarian's party had done a much
more thorough job in documenting Election Day violations, and
thus the ruling party hoped to entice Baghdassarian into a
coalition agreement to keep this evidence out of the
Constitutional Court. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) CLOSE, BUT NOT INNER CIRCLE: Samvel Nikoyan has been
a useful embassy interlocutor from time to time, as a
relative progressive member of the ruling party. He has, on
the margins, helped smooth the ways for such democracy
implementers as IFES and the National Democratic Institute,
seemingly due to his own belief that this assistance has
value for Armenia. Nikoyan has no government position, but
is a member of the Republican Party's top executive council.
Though relatively young, Nikoyan is part of the camp within
the Republican Party that was close to the late Prime
Minister and founding party member Andranik Margarian -- a
wing that has not entirely found peace with the influx of
influential political players that joined the party in 2006
when Serzh Sargsian joined. Nikoyan called our LES Political
Specialist February 27 for a lengthy, informal chat,
seemingly based on their long-standing friendly relationship,
rather than specifically intending to communicate to the U.S.
Embassy.


3. (C) DIVERGENCE ON STRATEGY: Nikoyan said there was an
ongoing disagreement between Prime Minster Sargsian and
President Kocharian on how to deal with the protracted
rallies in Freedom Square. While the president prefers to
drive the protesters from the square, the PM is sensitive to
the negative reaction that would cause, and prefers if
possible to reach a peaceful solution. He favors a
combination of negotiation with the more reasonable
opposition elements, and simply waiting until the
demonstrators grow tired of the demonstrations. (NOTE: FM
Oskanian's briefing to the diplomatic corps February 29
(septel) could suggest that the PM has won this argument for
now. END NOTE) Nikoyan said that while the LTP rallies
might seem entirely peaceful on the surface, he alleged that
LTP was secretly forming armed units as well.


4. (C) LTP RAILED, BUT BAGHDASSARIAN GOT THE GOODS: Nikoyan
said the ruling party was most interested in attracting
Orinats Yerkir party leader Artur Baghdassarian into a
power-sharing coalition. Partly, this is because he is less
radicalized and absolutist than Levon Ter-Petrossian, but
also because, he said, Orinats Yerkir had done a much better
job of training its commission members and accredited party
proxies. The party's PEC members and proxies had done a much
more systematic job of collecting certified copies of the
final results protocols and other relevant documents on
Election Night, and thus had a much stronger package of
documentary evidence that it could submit to the
Constitutional Court. If Baghdassarian did not get a deal he
found satisfactory, he would most likely join LTP's court
complaint seeking to annul the election. (NOTE:
Baghdassarian announced February 29 that his party had
concluded a cooperation agreement with the ruling Republican
and Prosperous Armenia coalition. Baghdassarian has been
offered the postion of Secretary of the National Security
Council -- which seems surprisingly insignificant, since that
position has been only a part-time job in recent memory. The
current incumbent of the position is presidential chief of
staff Armen Gevorkian, and his predecessor was then-Defense
Minister Serzh Sargsian. END NOTE)


5. (C) CONSTITUTIONAL COURT A HELPFUL DELAY: Nikoyan
thought that the ten-day window for the Constitutional Court
to act on election related complaints would be useful in that
the delay would give protesters that much more time to get
bored of their demonstrations.


6. (C) RAFFI TAKES INSTUCTIONS FROM U.S.?: Nikoyan shared
his (completely mistaken) belief that Heritage Party leader
and former AmCit Raffi Hovhannissian takes political
instructions from the U.S. Government. Nikoyan therefore
found it very worrisome that Hovhanissian had aligned himself
with LTP.
PENNINGTON