Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08YEREVAN164
2008-02-28 04:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

LTP AND SARGSIAN HOLD DUELING RALLIES; LTP WINS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM AM 
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P 280414Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7087
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1492
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 0648
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0568
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000164 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR DAS BRYZA AND CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AM
SUBJECT: LTP AND SARGSIAN HOLD DUELING RALLIES; LTP WINS
HANDS DOWN

REF: A. YEREVAN 161


B. YEREVAN 160

Classified By: Joseph Pennington, for reasons 1.4 (b and d).

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000164

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR DAS BRYZA AND CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AM
SUBJECT: LTP AND SARGSIAN HOLD DUELING RALLIES; LTP WINS
HANDS DOWN

REF: A. YEREVAN 161


B. YEREVAN 160

Classified By: Joseph Pennington, for reasons 1.4 (b and d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Ex-president Levon Ter-Petrossian and president-elect
Prime Minister Serge Sargsian held competing rallies blocks
away from each other in downtown Yerevan the afternoon of
February 26. While Sargsian's first post-election rally drew
approximately 60,000 to 70,000 bussed-in supporters, LTP's
seventh post-election rally in as many days drew 85,000 to
100,000, his largest so far. Thousands of Sargsian
participants later defected to LTP's rally up the street,
where they were rapturously received with chants of "Unite,
Unite." Some of the bussed-in Sargsian supporters who joined
the LTP rally appeared visibly dazed by the magnitude of
LTP's support, which, because of a virtual media blackout,
has been grossly misportrayed by national media. END SUMMARY.

--------------
SARGSIAN BUSES IN 60,000 PLUS
--------------


2. (C) As Emboffs arrived at Prime Minster Serge Sargsian's
first post-election rally held in Yerevan's Republic Square,
hundreds of would-be Sargsian supporters were headed in the
opposite election, up the street to the Freedom Square rally
of ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian, whose protest of
Armenia's February 19 presidential election was entering its
seventh straight day. Supporters at Sargsian's rally
appeared to be mainly middle-aged men and women, with
virtually no youth in sight. Banners at the rally showed
people had come from the outlying regions of Yerevan, though
one group Emboffs spoke with had come all the way from
Javakheti, Georgia. In a scene reminiscent of mass
mobilizations during the Soviet era, banner slogans read
"Farmers for Serzh," "Doctors for Serzh," and even
"Tuberculosis Polyclinic Employees for Serzh."


3. (C) People whom Emboffs surveyed at the rally responded
differently on the reason for their attendance, depending on
how Emboffs identified themselves (either from the US Embassy
or simply from America). People who knew they were talking

to diplomats said they came willingly to the rally, "to
defend their vote" for Sargsian and paid their own way to
Yerevan. One group of women told Emboffs "to mind their own
business" when asked why they came to the rally, barking at
the female FSN translator, "Why did YOU come?" On the other
hand, most men and women who were speaking to Americans said
they were obliged to attend the rally by their supervisors
and had been bussed to the event. (NOTE: A visiting EUR/ACE
humanitarian assistance official who had meetings planned in
the northern cities of Sevan and Dilijan the day of the rally
found out upon arrival that two of his meetings had fallen
through due to the compulsory rally attendance of his
interlocutors in those distant cities. END NOTE.)

--------------
60K TO TWO K IN EIGHT MINUTES ...
--------------


4. (C) Emboffs timed the departure of would-be Sargsian
supporters from the capacious Republic Square once the Prime
Minister concluded his largely conciliatory, 30-minute
address. Within the space of eight minutes, approximately 95
percent of the approximately 60,000-70,000 crowd bolted the
rain-drizzled square for their waiting buses and rides home.
Only 2,000 held on in the drizzling rain, kept there by
popular Armenian pop stars who took the stage after the Prime
Minister. A bemused bystander approached Emboffs, and when
Emboff asked him why he was grinning, he incredulously noted,
"Did you see that -- how fast everyone left the square?"

-------------- --------------
... AS THOUSANDS DEFECT TO LTP RALLY UP THE STREET
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Emboffs then headed up the street towards Freedom
Square where supporters of ex-president Levon Ter-Petrossian
were holding the seventh pro-LTP rally in as many days. LTP

YEREVAN 00000164 002 OF 003


supporters exuberantly greeted the thousands of newcomers to
the rally with chants, "Come, Come, Unite, Unite" (NOTE:
Emboffs estimated at least 2,000 arrived at the square with
them, but this was already 20 minutes after the end of the
Sargsian rally. END NOTE.) Would-be Sargsian supporters
crossed the street, shared embraces with LTP supporters, and
then turned back towards new arriving waves to encourage them
on. Emboffs spotted several Sargsian rally participants
actively engaged in this encouragement. The influx of
Sargsian rally participants resulted in the interruption of
traffic for over an hour, with a key Yerevan artery, Tumanian
Street, cut off adjacent to Freedom Square. Inside the
square, LTP supporters cheered the defectors on, as the crowd
swelled to 85,000-100,000 supporters. Some of the would-be
Sargsian supporters appeared veritably dazed by the magnitude
of the swelling rally, while dozens others took out their
cell phone cameras to capture the moment.

--------------
SARGSIAN BANNER ALMOST SPARKS CONFRONTATION
--------------


6. (C) As Emboffs watched the Sargsian defectors unite with
LTP supporters across Tumanian Street, the assembled crowd
began to direct its attention to a three-story-high election
poster of Sargsian hanging on the facade of an upscale
restaurant. After ten minutes of raised fists, and shouts of
"Let's get rid of Serzh," a contingent of 20 nearby police
moved in front of the restaurant to deter the protesters.
Initially greeted with whistles and cat calls, the police
were then applauded and cheered on, to chants of "Unite With
Us, Police." The protesters occupied Tumanian Street for
another 45 minutes until a speaker at the rally encouraged
them to conduct a downtown march, which about 25,000 then
did. LTP supporters were also treated at this time to the
playing of the theme song of Armenia's 1988 Karabakh
movement, which brought temporary silence to the assembled
throngs, as a speaker got people to chant the movement's
motto, "Free, Independent Armenia."

--------------
ATMOSPHERICS AT LTP RALLY
--------------


7. (C) This was by far LTP's strongest outing yet in the
number of mobilized supporters, exceeding his Sunday,
February 17 pre-election rally in the same Freedom Square.
Emboffs noticed a greater number of people from the regions
in attendance, from both southern and northern Armenia. Some
said they had traveled to Yerevan over the weekend, and were
staying with friends, and would continue to come to the
rallies until LTP prevailed. The number of tents in Freedom
Square mushroomed from a few to approximately 30, with
several sporting operational stovepipes through the roofs.
Banners were in greater number, and the rally had a festive,
bohemian air to it. (NOTE: One of the banners read, "ODIHR:
BE FAIR" in reference to the overall positive, preliminary
assessment by the OSCE election-monitoring organization,
which many disappointed Armenians have found to be wide of
the mark. END NOTE.) The demographic was noticeably younger
at LTP's rally, but many middle-aged people were also in
attendance.


8. (C) When Emboffs surveyed people in the crowd, they were
swarmed by LTP sympathizers seeking to share their
election-day horror stories (of ballot stuffing, beatings,
non-intervention of police, etc). They also said they were
appalled by the post-election media blackout of LTP's protest
rallies, saying that national TV had lied to people claiming
only 100 supporters had come out to Freedom Square in support
of LTP. One Yerevan citizen at the rally said she defied her
institute director's order to attend the Sargsian rally, and
that police had detained her son and other students inside
their university during a previous LTP rally. Emboffs
visited two university campuses before the rally to verify
reports of riot police being stationed outside to deter
student participation in the event. Both campuses had
approximately 10-20 riot and regular police outside, with
numerous police vehicles parked in the street. When queried
by Emboffs at Yerevan State University's (YSU) main campus
why they were there, police -- including ranking officers --
refused to make a statement, walked away from Emboffs, and
acted as if nobody had addressed them. A police officer at a
YSU affiliate down the street said they had been dispatched

YEREVAN 00000164 003 OF 003


to "preserve order." A student at the scene said police had
arrived the day before, had engaged with students and told
them not to attend the rally, but were overall
non-aggressive.


9. (C) Several businessmen at the LTP rally, who were members
of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutyun (ARF)
whose presidential candidate finished a distant fourth in the
February 19 poll, told Emboffs the "dirty" presidential
election was to blame for the protest. They also said they
thought the OSCE's quick rush to recognize the election
results had contributed to people's dissatisfaction with the
situation, and actually contributed to the ongoing protests.
One of the Dashnak supporters solemnly shared that if
Armenians accepted the initial election results, they would
essentially "abandon" themselves to a "future of feudalism"
in their country.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) If it was president-elect Sargsian's goal to offset
the ongoing LTP rallies with a show of force of his own, he
outright failed. In fact, it appears he did himself more ill
than good, giving LTP and their diehard 30,000 cadre a new
influx of thousands of jaded, would-be Sargsian supporters
bussed into Yerevan by the ruling regime itself. Where
previous LTP rallies appeared to be stagnating in terms of
number of supporters, today's lopsided duel with Sargsian's
contrived event appears to have given the LTP campaign a
much-needed infusion of energy, regional support, and new
credibility with the Armenian street. It remains to be seen,
though, how LTP will exploit this showdown, and how Sargsian
will react to arguably the greatest PR mistake of the
increasingly tense post-election period. Within a matter of
hours, today's dueling rallies visibly jeopardized Sargsian's
cultivated image of invincibility. END COMMENT.


PENNINGTON