ARMENIAN PM CONTRADICTS PRESIDENCY: EXIT POLL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000016

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM OSCE KPAO AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN PM CONTRADICTS PRESIDENCY: EXIT POLL
STILL ALIVE

REF: A) YEREVAN 003 B) 07 YEREVAN 1467 C) 07 YEREVAN

1439

Classified By: CDA ROBERT FRAZIER, REASONS 1.4 B/D.

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a hastily called meeting, Armenian Prime Minister
Serzh Sargsyan told Charge that he still favors the holding
of a USAID-funded exit poll during the upcoming presidential
election, as long as a key condition be met. Contradicting
the presidential administration, which has privately opposed
the poll (Ref A),PM Sargsyan emphatically declared that
"there is no one on my team" opposed to it. The sticking
point, he said, was the lack of access to the polling data
while it was being collected and transmitted abroad for
analysis. He asked the Mission's help in solving this
problem, so that the data could be concurrently shared within
Armenia on election day. The PM also previewed GOAM plans to
approach "European partners" for similar election-related
projects, including media monitoring and a complementary exit
poll. He stated that Armenia wanted to avoid the "tension"
witnessed in Georgia's recent presidential election, which he
partially attributed to exit polling performed by
inexperienced organizations. End summary.

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PM SEEMINGLY CONTRADICTS PRESIDENT
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2. (C) On January 7, presidential Deputy Chief of Staff Vigen
Sargsyan called CDA to request an urgent meeting with PM --
and presidential front-runner -- Serzh Sargsyan to discuss
the holding of the USAID-funded/IRI-commissioned exit poll
during the presidential election on February 19. Acting
USAID director, USAID democracy programs director and acting
polchief accompanied Charge to the meeting which was held at
the PM's office with PM Chief of Staff Levon Martirosyan and
Vigen Sargsyan. The meeting was the fourth held on the
subject in as many weeks, but the first requested by the PM;
the three previous meetings had been initiated by, and held
at the presidency (reftels). While the PM has publicly
supported the poll ever since the Mission broached it with
him in late November, the presidency has stridently opposed
it in private, and criticized the Mission for not raising it
first with President Robert Kocharian. In the third meeting
held on December 28, presidential Chief of Staff Armen
Gevorkian notified the Charge of the President's opposition
to the poll, and the request that the Mission not go forward
with it. He also asked post not to politicize the
president's decision once it was made public (Ref A). He
said the three main reasons for opposing the poll were the
GOAM's lack of trust in how it would be conducted, fear that
it could provoke instability during and after the election,
and concerns that the poll would overshadow the election
process itself.


3. (C) Catching the Mission somewhat by surprise, PM Sargsyan
seemingly contradicted the president's position on the poll,
stating he welcomed "efforts like these" that improved the
credibility of the election "in the eyes of our people" and
abroad. He noted that he favored the latest opinion poll
being funded by USAID and commissioned by IRI that showed him
in the lead, opining that "Gallup was doing a good job."
(Note: IRI commissioned the poll to the Baltic Surveys, Ltd.
/ Gallup Organization based in Vilnius to conduct the opinion
poll to which the PM referred, as well as the proposed exit
poll. End note.)

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THE CATCH: ACCESS TO POLLING DATA
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4. (C) In spite of his support, the PM said the presidency
had informed him of a "strange thing" in the poll's
methodology -- the fact that Armenia would not have access to
the polling data while it was collected and analyzed. In
order to work in a "spirit of trust," he proposed to the
Mission that access to the polling data be granted to Armenia
on election day as well. (Note: He did not specify which
entity in Armenia should be granted access. End note.) He
pledged GOAM cooperation in arriving at a suitable technical
arrangement, offering as an example the creation of a "second
server" in Armenia to receive the data from the Gallup office
in Vilnius. (Note: The PM did not go into details on the

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sequence of data delivery to such a server. End note.) He
added that Gallup could analyze the data on its own, without
Armenian participation, but Armenia should also have a data
"archive" made available to it.


5. (C) The PM underscored GOAM concerns about the optic of
the exit poll being entirely in the hands of non-Armenians.
He said it "concerned us" when the polling data would be
exclusively collected and analyzed in an "entirely different
place" so that "we will not have an idea of the results." He
appealed to the Mission to understand GOAM concerns about
putting "the fate of the entire election" into the hands of
"one computer operator" in Vilnius. The PM also proposed
that Gallup could register with the Central Electoral
Commission, a step that would confer upon it official status
during the election. In spite of his concerns about the
optics, the PM nevertheless stressed the need for an
"experienced organization" such as Gallup to carry out the
poll. He noted the "tension" witnessed in the recent
presidential election in Georgia, partially attributing it to
inexperienced polling organizations. He even wondered out
loud why a Ukrainian organization had been invited to conduct
a poll there, claiming that such a situation "smelled" of
something "other than polling."

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WE WANT CREDIBLE ELECTIONS
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6. (C) Throughout the meeting, the PM repeated his wish that
the exit poll's results contribute to a credible election.
He agreed with the Charge that exit and opinion polls were an
indicator of free and fair elections as well as a democratic
society. He declared "we are having elections" to
demonstrate these points to the Armenian people, "otherwise
they don't make sense." He insisted that the Armenian
Sociological Association, the local partner of Gallup which
has alternatively been branded as pro-government and
opposition (depending on the results of the polls in
question),did not have to be involved in the exit poll, or
in the handling of polling data. In fact, he said it would
be "much better" if Gallup "ran the whole thing."

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GOAM MEDIA MONITORING, POLLING PLANS
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7. (C) The PM then previewed the GOAM's ambitious plans for
its own media monitoring and polling during and after the
presidential election. These included a media monitoring
program prior to the election, a pre-election opinion poll,
an election day exit poll, and a post-election opinion poll.
He said the GOAM planned to request assistance with these
projects from "European entities" or "high-ranking"
international organizations with the proper experience. He
objected to the current media monitoring project being
carried out by the Yerevan Press Club (YPC),and even similar
attempts by diplomatic missions, claiming they yielded "an
incomplete picture" of the situation. The PM said the GOAM
welcomed Mission input on media monitoring, and even
solicited suggestions on which TV, radio, or print outlets to
include in the program. The PM was visibly disappointed with
what he had heard during his recent visit to Brussels and
Strasbourg on the GOAM's alleged media clampdown prior to the
election. He said he told the Council of Europe's
Commissioner on Human Rights that the YPC was biased and
distorting the true picture in Armenia.

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MISSION RESPONSE ... AND PM INTERJECTIONS
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8. (C) Charge told the PM his views on the exit poll were
encouraging given the fact that some in the GOAM did not
support it. At this point, the PM emphatically interjected
that "no one on my team" opposes it. The Charge noted to the
PM the Mission's view that the exit poll data hardly posed a
threat to the outcome of the vote, which the PM seconded,
albeit with the caveat that things can "go wrong" with
improperly-conducted exit polls. The Charge said the Mission
would have to consult with IRI and the Gallup Organization on
the data-sharing proposal, but cautioned that the key part of
any exit poll was its neutrality, and its carrying out by an
unbiased third party.

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COMMENT

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9. (C) Although we cannot be certain this new offer to permit
the exit poll is completely genuine, or merely a tactic by
the PM to save face if the poll is subsequently scrapped, we
think we should react to the proposal in good faith. In this
vein, we are already exploring the possibility of read-only
data sharing that the PM proposed, without compromising the
legitimacy of the poll. One should not forget that the PM's
public support of the poll throughout means he has a stake in
it being carried out. The fact that he has ostensibly bucked
the president on this issue is truly remarkable, given the
president's seniority and authority. It appears the PM, at
least for the time being, has assuaged the president's
concerns about the poll, and in doing so drawn a clear
distinction between his and the president's governing style.
End comment.
FRAZIER