MFA, PRESIDENCY RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT USG ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000156

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: MFA, PRESIDENCY RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT USG ELECTION
STATEMENT

REF: YEREVAN 150

Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 b,d.

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In back-to-back meetings on February 21, and as a
major opposition protest was getting underway just blocks
away, Foreign Minister Oskanian and Presidential Chief of
Staff Armen Gevorkian expressed to the Charge their concerns
about the Department's planned statement on Armenia's
February 19 presidential election, and urged it not reflect
any "double standards." Visibly anxious about what they
perceive as a mildly negative characterization of the
Department's initial press guidance which has begun to
surface in media reports here, and firmly convinced that
Armenia's election was better than the recent presidential
poll in neighboring Georgia, both officials urged balance in
the planned statement. They warned that the opposition could
use a critical statement to "create problems in people's
perception" of the post-election situation. They also
emphasized that a balanced statement would add momentum to
the promising bilateral ties established during Prime
Minister Sargsian's fall 2007 visit to Washington. END
SUMMARY.

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NO DOUBLE STANDARDS BETWEEN GEORGIA AND ARMENIA, PLEASE
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2. (C) As ex-President and current second-place finisher in
Armenia's February 19 presidential election Levon
Ter-Petrossian (LTP) was launching his second protest rally
in as many days at nearby Freedom Square, Foreign Minister
Oskanian and Presidential Chief of Staff Armen Gevorkian used
back-to-back meetings to express GOAM concerns about a
possible USG public statement characterizing the conduct of
Tuesday's election. Both were convinced that Armenia had
conducted a relatively better election than Georgia had in
early January, and said they had studied the language the
Department had used after that election. Gevorkian dourly
declared that Armenia "did not want to be disappointed" by
any double standards that would give his country the short
end of the stick.


3. (C) Both were visibly anxious about the recent appearance
of media reports citing Department press guidance which they
alleged highlighted the negative aspects of the election.
Oskanian said the GOAM would be "concerned" if the final USG
statement contained language citing actual percentages of
precincts where vote counting was observed by OSCE/ODIHR
observers to be "bad" or "very bad." He solemnly declared
that such a statement will create "problems in people's
perception" of the post-election situation in the country.
Gevorkian said the GOAM does not want "opposition protesters"
to be "emboldened" by a USG statement.

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PRESIDENT ASKS FOR DELAY IN STATEMENT DURING RECOUNT
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4. (C) Sharing the contents of his phone conversation with
President Kocharian earlier in the morning, Oskanian said the
President wanted the Charge to know that investigations into
all complaints that have been filed about vote-count
irregularities are already underway. Kocharian reportedly
asked the statement be put off while the complaints are being
investigated and disputed votes re-counted. Oskanian
stressed that President Kocharian was "firm" that all
disputed ballot boxes be re-opened and re-counted, and urged
the USG to be "convinced that what it is saying" is correct.
Gevorkian and presidential aide Vigen Sargsian confirmed that
vote recounts were already underway in 33 of the 41
territorial electoral commissions (TECs) where mainly
opposition election proxies had filed complaints. (NOTE:
This constitutes 80 percent of the country's TECs. The
recount by law must be completed within seven days of the
election, by Tuesday, February 26 in this case. END NOTE.)
They also confirmed that opposition proxies and international
observers would be welcomed and involved in the recount.

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YEREVAN 00000156 002 OF 003


CHARGE ON GUIDANCE, STATEMENT, ALLEGED VIOLATIONS
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5. (C) The Charge assured Oskanian and Gevorkian that
Washington had not yet issued an official statement, and that
the guidance was meant only to prepare the Department for
initial media inquiries. That said, the Charge stressed to
both that the guidance and eventual statement would reflect
the positive as well as negative observations made by ODIHR,
particularly "our concerns" with the conduct of
vote-counting, which American short-term observers shared
with us directly. The Charge stated the Mission was also
concerned about very high rates of voter turn-out, which in
some Precinct Election Commissions (PECs) topped 90 percent
and higher, with the majority of votes in these PECs going to
Prime Minister Sargsian. He said the Mission also had
reports of other "bizarre incidents" during the election that
raised red flags, such as ballot box stuffing and opposition
proxies being beaten up or removed from PECs. He added that
the Mission was working to see where these allegedly occurred
and gauge their impact.

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ONLY TECHNICAL ISSUES, AND OFFENDERS WILL BE PUNISHED
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6. (C) Oskanian, Gevorkian and Sargsian all assured the
Charge that technical issues were likely to blame at the
15-16 percent of PECs where ODIHR observed the vote count was
"bad" or "very bad." They said the charges of use of mobile
phones during vote counts, as well as failure to announce
aloud the number of votes for each candidate, were technical
issues that Sargsian pointedly asserted could not have
influenced the overall outcome of the election.


7. (C) Gevorkian repeatedly assured the Charge that the GOAM
was dedicated to making the post-election environment better
than the pre-election period, and said both law enforcement
authorities and the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) were
already investigating complaints that had been filed by
proxies at PECs. Sargsian interjected that most of the
complaints had been filed by LTP proxies, and that
investigations into these had even begun halfway through
election day, prior to the LTP camp's sharing of them with
ODIHR early that same evening. Gevorkian assured the Charge
that all cases will be thoroughly investigated and offenders
punished, even if it means jail time.

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WELL-BALANCED STATEMENT WILL CEMENT TIES WITH NEW PRESIDENT
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8. (C) Both Sargsian and Armen Yeganian, Director of the
MFA's Americas Department who was at the meeting with the
Foreign Minister, subtly suggested to the Charge that a
"well-balanced" statement would cement the positive
US-Armenia ties established by Prime Minister Sargsian's fall
2007 visit to Washington. Presidential aide Sargsian opined
that it was a "good moment to be constructive" and "build
momentum" in the bilateral relationship. He cautioned,
however, that a USG statement -- which is "quite important"
to the Armenian people -- can either "incite the opposition"
or signal to the people to "move on" to normal opposition
activities after the formation of the new government.


9. (C) Yeganian ventured -- confidentially after the meeting
was over -- that a well-balanced statement could even give
the new President greater enthusiasm about expanding
US-Armenian ties, and less reason for him to focus
inordinately on Russian-Armenian relations. Both he and
Sargsian expressed hope that there would be an element of
congratulation in the statement, as they said was the case in
post-election statements by Russia, France, and the European
Union.

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NO INTENTION TO INTENSIFY THE SITUATION
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10. (C) The normally cantankerous Gevorkian took pains to
assure the Charge that the GOAM was committed to ensuring
calm and order after the election. He said the GOAM had "no
intention of intensifying the situation," that it was normal
that losers of the election wanted to protest the results,

YEREVAN 00000156 003 OF 003


and that the GOAM accepted the fact there was an element of
the Armenian population that would never be satisfied with
such competitions. He said the authorities were allowing the
Ter-Petrossian protest then getting underway at Yerevan's
central Freedom Square to proceed in spite of the fact that
the organizers had not requested permission to assemble
there. The Charge commended the authorities for their
restraint during the protest rally and extensive downtown
march that LTP's campaign had staged the day before (reftel),
and urged the GOAM to continue with this approach. The
Charge added that the final USG statement would emphasize to
both sides the importance of maintaining calm in the
post-election period.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) It is clear that the US public position on the
election process looms large to senior Armenian officials.
By holding off on a definitive statement for a day or two, we
may be more effective in pushing for transparent re-counts
and real investigations of alleged wrongdoing. Gevorkian
said all the right things today about GOAM intentions to
address the problems that occurred on election day. We will
direct our efforts toward holding the authorities to that
commitment, and have assured them that sincere efforts to
investigate and redress election-day chicanery in the coming
days will be positively reflected in how we characterize the
election in our public statements.
PENNINGTON