PM SARGSIAN DECLARED WINNER OF PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000150

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC
NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2013
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: PM SARGSIAN DECLARED WINNER OF PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION; OPPOSITION DEMONSTRATION REACHES 50,000


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.5(B,D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Armenia's Central Election Commission announced
preliminary results from yesterday's presidential election
showing PM Sargsian as the winner with 52.8 percent of the
vote. The PM's margin ensures that he will (barely) escape a
runoff with second-place finisher and former president Levon
Ter-Petrossian (LTP). LTP's supporters immediately claimed
that the results had been falsified and called for a mass
protest rally in central Yerevan. As of 2000 local time, an
estimated 50,000 protesters had converged on Opera Square in
what has been up to now a peaceful protest. The protesters
later dispersed peacefully, but plan to continue where they
left off tomorrow afternoon. The OSCE/ODIHR Observer Mission
issued a statement this afternoon characterizing the election
as "mostly in line with international standards" despite
significant problems in vote counting at 15 percent of
polling stations in which observers were present. The
authorities have thus far exercised restraint by not
interfering with the demonstrations. Nevertheless, the
possibility for civil unrest and violence cannot be ruled out
in coming days. End Summary.

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SARGSIAN SQUEAKS THROUGH IN FIRST ROUND
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2. (U) According to preliminary results released by the
Central Election Commission (CEC) this afternoon, PM Sargsian
escaped a contentious runoff with second-place finisher Levon
Ter-Petrossian by a margin of roughly 45,000 votes.
According to the CEC, LTP received 21.5 percent of the vote,
while Orinats Yerkir leader Artur Baghdassarian finished
third with 16.7 percent. The opposition wasted no time in
asserting that the election had essentially been stolen, and
calling on supporters to take to the streets to "defend their
votes." A crowd of several thousand had gathered by midday
in front of the Matenadaran (Manuscript Museum). By the time
LTP arrived to address the crowd at 1600 local time, the
numbers had swelled to perhaps 30,000. LTP then led the
demonstrators on a march through central Yerevan and
ultimately to Freedom Square, next to the Yerevan Opera. As
of 2000 this evening, we estimate that the number of
protesters had reached about 50,000. At 2030, the rally
dispersed peacefully, but LTP has called on supporters to
reconvene at the same place on Thursday afternoon.


3. (U) The Armenian authorities have exercised restraint in
responding to the demonstrations. Although we have seen a
noticeable increase in police presence in the city center,
especially near the CEC building, police have made no attempt
to interfere in the demonstrations or disperse the crowd. A
group supporting PM Sargsian had initially planned a
celebratory rally for a square near where the protesters had
gathered, but by mid-afternoon the organizers had (wisely)
called it off.

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OBSERVER MISSION ISSUES REPORT
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4. (C) Late this afternoon, the International Election
Observation Mission in Armenia (OSCE/ODIHR, OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
of Europe, and the European Parliament) issued its
preliminary report, describing the election as "mostly in
line with the country's international commitments and
standards." Although there was scant mention of the more
problematic aspects of yesterday's voting at the press
conference announcing the report, the body of the text
outlines a series of concerns. Most damningly, ODIHR
characterizes the vote counting process at 15 percent of the
precincts observed as either "bad" or "very bad." (Comment:
Post has received many reports -- some more credible than
others -- about alleged ballot stuffing, intimidation of
opposition supporters at polling stations, and vote count
irregularities. The ODIHR assessment of problems in the
counting process reinforces our concerns that significant
fraud may have taken place, especially in LTP strongholds in

YEREVAN 00000150 002 OF 002


and around Yerevan. It remains unclear whether the most
significant problems were confined to a relatively few
districts, or were sufficiently widespread to have changed
the outcome. End Comment.)

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POST CONVENES EAC
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5. (C) In light of the continuing demonstrations and the
potential for clashes in the city center, post convened an
Emergency Action Committee meeting (septel) this afternoon to
assess risks to mission personnel, family members, and the
wider Amcit community. The EAC agreed to recommend closure
of the international school for a second consecutive day, and
an update to recently-issued warden notices regarding the
possiblity of large political gatherings for the next few
days, which has been disseminated.

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THE COMING DAYS -- WHAT WE EXPECT
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6. (C) Given the level of frustration among opposition
supporters and widespread allegations of election-day
shenanigans, we expect some level of protests to continue for
at least the next several days. We are encouraged by the
fact that clashes have so far been avoided, and note that
LTP's rhetoric to his followers this afternoon was more
calming than inflammatory. Whether the opposition will be
able to motivate its supporters to take part in a longer-term
protest movement remains an open question. While some of the
firebrands in LTP's inner circle may be pushing for a more
confrontational approach, we are cautiously hopeful that the
worst can be avoided. Nevertheless, the situation remains
fluid, and significant civil unrest or violence cannot be
ruled out.
PENNINGTON