Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08YEREVAN125
2008-02-14 12:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

ARMENIA'S SOUTH RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE

Tags:  PGOV KDEM AM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8204
RR RUEHLMC
DE RUEHYE #0125/01 0451257
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 141257Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7016
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0543
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000125 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S SOUTH RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

REF: YEREVAN 86

Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington for reasons 1.4b and d.

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000125

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S SOUTH RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

REF: YEREVAN 86

Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington for reasons 1.4b and d.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Blanketed by feet of snow, residents of Armenia's
southern regions of Syunik and Vayats Dzor seem more
interested in their crops, the weather and even the U.S.
presidential campaign than in their own presidential
elections slated for February 19. Opposition activists are
having trouble getting their word out for various reasons,
chief amongst them the population's overall approval of Serzh
Sargsian and the Republican party. With his roots in the
south, Sargsian's ubiquitous visage may mirror his dominance
in the hearts of voters or exacerbate what voters perceive is
a lack of viable choices in the race. That Sargsian's
opponents are putting up less of a fight in the sparsely
populated south indicates they have larger fish to fry
elsewhere. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Emboffs spent January 29-30 touring major population
centers of Armenia's south. Harsh weather and road
conditions precluded visits to the smaller villages that dot
the many valleys in the high Zangezeur mountain range.

--------------
SISIAN: NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT
--------------


3. (C) TOWARDS LTP HQ: Pulling into Sisian, the northernmost
town in Armenia's southernmost Syunik region, emboffs could
not help but notice multiple copies of PM Serzh Sargsian's
one election poster--in various sizes--on nearly every public
building and street corner. It took a while to locate the
campaign office for former president Levon Ter-Petrossian
(LTP),but it revealed itself to be the only location in the
general vicinity bedecked with its candidate's placards.
While meeting with LTP representative Kamo Safrazyan, it soon
became clear that LTP's campaign has spent less time and
resources in the south of the country than elsewhere. While
admitting that LTP has no particular promises to make to
Syunik, Safrazyan said that LTP's campaign in Sisian and
surrounding villages had distributed some 2,500 DVDs that
contained footage of the former president's first three
rallies in Yerevan so that citizens could see "what LTP could
do for them." Asked how villagers and townsfolk had access

to the technology to view the DVDs, Safrazyan spoke of groups
of villagers congregating in neighbors' homes to watch the
DVDs. He added that he had heard of several village heads
secretly watching the videos in their own homes.

SIPDIS


4. (C) MAKING LEMONADE: Queried about reports that LTP's
office in Syunik's capital, Kapan, had been shut down,
Safrazyan confirmed them, stating that there had allegedly a
rental dispute over the premises. He was quick to add,
however, that this was an encouraging sign for LTP's
supporters in Kapan, as they were now "on the street and
doing work" outside of an office to get LTP's words out.
Safrazyan also indicated that the opposition is not LTP's
exclusive domain, stating that LTP supporters would go out to
see any of the other opposition candidates were they to come
through town.


5. (C) MEDIA COVERAGE: Speaking to the owner and news
director of local TV station Vorotanyan Ghoghangner, emboffs
learned that only the ruling party's candidate had approached
the station to ask for specific advertising time. According
to them, the opposition candidates did not attempt to buy
airtime in order to "protect" the station from what had
happened to GALA TV in Gyumri (see reftel). Nevertheless,
LTP's supporters had requested that the station broadcast the
candidate's DVD, though withdrew the request when the station
offered to do so at a price of 2000 AMD/minute. The station
owner, Araik Harutunyan, said he had been surprised about
this since the price was less than was being offered by
Yerevan stations for political advertising. Harutunyan
reported that the station was broadcasting 45-minute
documentaries that the A1Plus news outlet had produced on
each of the candidates, and was reporting every candidate's
rallies in their news bulletins. (NOTE: The station is known
to be connected with Sisian's mayor, who, though nominally
independent, often touts views of the Republican party. He
is also known to have been at odds with Syunik's corrupt
governor, and occasionally has asked the station to air
various opposition programs--the A1Plus documentaries
included--just to taunt him. END NOTE.)


YEREVAN 00000125 002 OF 003



6. (C) MEDIA INSIGHT: Asked for expert analysis about how the
elections might go in Syunik, Harutunyan pointed to the good
work that Serzh Sargsian has done for the region as the
singular factor that would translate into the PM's success in
the South. He also mentioned the appeal that Artur
Baghdasaryan has with youth and the permanent though minority
representation that the Dashnaks and LTP's Armenian National
Movement (ANM) have had in the region. With regard to vote
buying, Harutunyan was convinced that the level of fraud seen
in the parliamentary elections--the "best" he had seen--would
not be prevalent in these elections because "they are seen as
more important" and "most people like the Prime Minister."
Talking about the level of excitement surrounding the
election, Harutunyan quipped, "for (political) excitement, we
watch your (i.e., U.S.) elections."


7. (C) ARTUR'S RALLY: Emboffs attended Orinats Yerkir
candidate Artur Baghdasaryan's campaign rally in Sisian on
January 30. No posters lined the route to the gathering, and
emboffs took some pains asking people on the street if they
knew where the event was taking place. Some 700 mostly young
people crowded into the town's Soviet-era grand--though
unheated--theatre to hear Baghdasaryan rant for nearly an
hour--in subfreezing temperatures--about the problems and
injustices of the current regime. Somewhat surprisingly, his
diatribe was rarely interrupted by applause, and those
present commented to emboffs that Baghdasaryan's populist
rhetoric excluded concrete solutions for change. Another
participant in her thirties questioned why Baghdasaryan was
complaining about a government of which he was once a part.
Tellingly, in a town with a population of around 17,000, the
fact that so few supporters came to see a leading candidate
for president revealed more about his popularity--or lack
thereof--than anything else.

--------------
GORIS: SOLID SERZH TERRITORY
--------------


8. (U) NGO CITY: Goris, Syunik's second largest city, is
known for its tree-lined boulevards and its burgeoning and
thriving civil society. Thanks to the efforts of USAID
implementers, Goris has more NGOs effectively working in the
city environs per capita than anywhere else. With
unemployment in the town at close to 40 percent, these NGOs
operate soup kitchens and shelters, employment centers and
adult education classes. A significant few of them see their
role as filling in for services that the local government
cannot or will not provide. While the city's authorities
have often found these NGOs more irritating and troublesome
than helpful, the NGOs seem to have instilled a sense of
accountability that is rarely found elsewhere in cities of
this size in Armenia.


9. (C) OTHER CANDIDATES?: Leaders of some of the most
influential Goris NGOs reported that it was clear that Serzh
Sargsian was going to win in their region. Noting the fact
that Sargsian calls Syunik home and that his brother is the
elected National Assembly member for the district, NGO heads
pointed to Sargsian's opponents as the real reason for his
potential success in the south. According to these NGO
representatives, Southern Armenians cannot see in Sargsian's
rivals a real counterpoint to the PM. To this end, while the
parliamentary elections were hotly disputed and election
posters could be seen all over Goris last spring, the only
poster to be found in Goris is the same Sargsian for
President poster to be found everywhere else in the country.
The NGOs bemoaned the fact that, particularly with their
lackluster campaigning in the region, the opposition
candidates do not represent a viable presidential alternative.


10. (C) WHERE'S THE MAYOR?: Goris Mayor Nelson Oskanian's
office in City Hall stands in the middle of a handsome park,
surrounded by two- and three-story buildings upon which now
appears a collage of Serzh-Sargsian-for-President posters.
For a pedestrian in the park, the sight can seem doubtless
unnerving as Serzh Sargsians of various sizes, each with its
own Mona Lisa smile, seem to be watching, not unlike Big
Brother, the goings-on in the city center. However,
Oskanian, to his credit, has taken a leave of absence from
his job as mayor to lead Sargsian's presidential cause in
Goris from a ramshackle building two blocks away. The chief
reason why Goris will come out for Serzh, Oskanian claims, is
that he has kept his promises--presumably about neighboring
NK--to this region. That, the mayor says--in an apparent jab
at LTP--is the sign of an experienced leader that Armenia
needs.


11. (C) WHITHER "FORWARD ARMENIA": When asked to explain the
PM's election slogan "Forward Armenia," Mayor Oskanian

YEREVAN 00000125 003 OF 003


clarified the statement with an analogy. Even if one is to
turn around to look at what has come before, he is still
walking forward. In this way, Oskanian explained, Serzh
Sargsian believes that Armenia should look to its youth to
help it achieve its goals of bringing further prosperity to
Armenians and of living at peace with its neighbors with open
and secure borders. Oskanian admitted that change is
necessary; corruption and his citizens, sad economic
situation need to end. In his estimation, Serzh Sargsian is
the only leader who can bring about these changes.

--------------
VAYATS DZOR: ELECTION WITH LITTLE HYPE
--------------


12. (C) DASH-KNOCKING ON DOORS: Agrarian Vayats Dzor, the
poorest and least populated of the country's regions, links
Syunik to the rest of Armenia. Its capital, Yeghegnadzor,
lying just off the main highway linking Yerevan with the
south, is the prime location for candidates to stop on their
way to and from Yerevan. There, emboffs met the local
ARF-Dashnaktsutyun representatives to talk about Dashnak
candidate Vahan Hovhannisian's campaign in the region.
Located in an office that has seen better days,
Hovhannisian's campaign headquarters reflects the general
state of the electoral environment in Yeghegnadzor according
to Dashnak representatives: pretty quiet. The two
representatives who run the office explained their campaign
strategy; in lieu of posters or television ads, Dashnak
supporters canvass door-to-door asking prospective voters to
read Hovhannisian's platform and then sign an agreement to
say that they have read it. Campaign workers contend that
they do not intend to use these agreements for anything, but
general apprehension to sign pieces of paper handed to them
by strangers at the door has kept the number of voters who
have signed these agreements low. Hovhannisian's supporters
are also quick to clarify their party's relationship
with--and to distance themselves from--the government. "We
have three ministers," they explain, "but that does not mean
we support the government."


13. (C) NOT REALLY INTO IT: At a roundtable of NGO and
campaign representatives organized by the local office of USG
assistance implementer NDI, all those present conceded that
there had been a lot more enthusiasm about the parliamentary
election campaign than the current one. While campaign
leaders attributed this to fear, vote buying and fraud--which
no one denied was occurring, especially on the village
level--NGO representatives attributed the sense of malaise to
the choice of candidates. Personalities matter in this race,
one youth NGO representative said, and Serzh Sargsian seems
to those with whom she works to be the "least unlikable."
(NOTE: At a meeting in Yerevan on February 5, one of the
OSCE-ODIHR long-term election monitors assigned to Vayats
Dzor also attested to the low-key nature of the campaign in
the region. END NOTE.)


14. (C) INTIMIDATION?: LTP representatives took the
opportunity of the NDI-sponsored roundtable to report the
forced closure of their office in Melishka, the largest
village in the region, by the village authorities and offered
this as proof of the government's intimidation of the
opposition. While no one denied that such nefarious activity
was going on, most of those present at the discussion agreed
that these actions are the work of local chiefs who are
trying to show their loyalty to the government by quashing
opposition to it. The People's Party representative closed
the meeting with a sentiment that was shared by all. "The
people of Vayats Dzor are smart," he said, "These (village)
authorities show less loyalty when they do such things. They
should be serving the people and not just themselves."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


15. (C) The voters that turn out in Armenia's southernmost
region will cast most of their ballots for Serzh Sargsian.
The electorate knows this, the local officials know this and
the opposition knows this. The latter's lack of vigorous
campaigning in this region in part reflects the difficult
working environment there but also emphasizes that they have
better chances of changing many minds elsewhere.
Nevertheless, the lack of enthusiasm for the election
campaign in the south indicates a form of resignation that
many have about the outcome of the election. They are
placing their hopes in a Sargsian presidency to bring about
the changes that southerners urgently desire. END COMMENT.
PENNINGTON