FEB 9 TER-PETROSSIAN RALLY THE BIGGEST SO FAR THIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000110

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: FEB 9 TER-PETROSSIAN RALLY THE BIGGEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON; UNREALIZE HOPES FOR OPPOSITION ALLIANCE, BUT
PROMINENT VETERANS' GROUP MEMBERS ANNOUNCE SUPPORT


Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ter-Petrossian proved February 9 that he
can still bring out a truly large crowd (40,000) of
supporters, at least for a rally. His speech hit hard
against the current rulers for allegedly being ready to sell
out Armenian land in the south -- and thus, Armenia's vital
national interests -- in exchange for a secure Nagorno
Karabakh. Several wealthy and influential leaders of the
Yerkrapah NK veterans' organization announced their backing
for LTP. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) FILLING THE SQUARE: Levon Ter-Petrossian's (LTP)
presidential campaign rally on Saturday, February 9, far
outstripped all previous campaign events this season, of any
candidate, in both attendance and energy. The local rule of
thumb, which has aided us all year in our crowd estimations,
is that Freedom Square has a maximum capacity of 40,000
people. If that is so, LTP's rally must surely have hit
right around the 40,000 mark. The square was filled to
overflowing, with additional crowds up the major approach
pathways.


3. (SBU) INTENT MOOD: The crowd was also more energetic than
in previous rallies we have seen, with their alternating
chants of "Levon!" and of the Armenian word for "President."
Armenian political rallies, in general, are quieter than one
would expect, with relatively little shouting compared to
political rallies elsewhere. Armenians bring a striking
seriousness -- even studiousness -- to their political
rallies. The measure of intensity is not so much in the
noisiness but in the stillness; things tend to get quieter
as participants get more engaged with the speaker, ceasing
their small talk with neighbors to listen more attentively to
the speaker at the podium. On February 9, there was a
palpable difference in how the crowds reacted to the
"warm-up" speakers, as compared to former president
Ter-Petrossian. From the moment LTP took the microphone
until he stopped speaking, the crowd's full attention was
focused intently on not missing a syllable. Only when he
finished, and Nikol Pashinian resumed the chanting of
"Levon!," did the crowd relax its intensity. Rally leaders
then embarked on a march around downtown Yerevan, but only a
small portion of the huge crowd participated in the march.


4. (SBU) ...BUT NO DEAL: Many had come in hopes of hearing
that LTP and rival candidate Artur Baghdassarian had made a
deal, and that Baghdassarian would withdraw from the race in
favor of the first president, prior to the February 9, 18:00
local time deadline for candidates to withdraw their names
from the ballot. Despite tantalizing tidbits from several
quarters that such a deal was close, there was no such
announcement during the rally, and the deadline passed
without a deal. (NOTE: Popular opposition non-candidate
Raffi Hovanissian met with Baghdassarian and Ter-Petrossian
the night before the rally in hopes of supporting an alliance
between the two men, but the talks ended without success.
Such a deal could still be reached, but all candidates' names
will now be on the ballot, raising the possibility of a
divided vote. END NOTE)


5. (C) YERKRAPAH VETERANS JOINING UP: A notable
announcement, however, was that several prominent members of
the Yerkrapah war veterans organization had thrown their
support behind LTP, rather than the prime minister: Hakob
Hakobian and Sasun Mikaelian (both Republican members of
parliament),and Suren Barseghian. These were the same
Yerkrapah leaders that had earlier interceded in the town of
Talin in an attempt to secure the release of several LTP
supporters arrested for assault on an anti-LTP heckler during
a rally there. (COMMENT: Yerkrapah remains an "X" factor in
the upcoming race. In the late 1990s it was a powerful and
active political force, comprising thousands of NK war
veterans, fresh from that conflict. The vets were
passionately devoted to their war hero founder Vazgen
Sargsian, who was later killed in the 1999 attack on the
Armenian parliament. It remains unclear whether Yerkrapah
can still mobilize large numbers of veterans to either the
ballot box or the streets. It is also unclear whether the
organization will be politically unified. END COMMENT)


6. (C) KEY THEME -- NK: LTP's speech focused heavily on his
allegation that in 1999 President Robert Kocharian came close
to signing a Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal with Azerbaijan that
would have traded away Armenia's southern Meghri region to
Azerbaijan, in return for Armenia gaining full sovereignty
over Shushi and Lachin in/around NK. LTP said he had a
secret document -- which was later published in full in the

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pro-LTP Haykakhan Zhamanak newspaper -- detailing the
proposal. LTP read aloud lengthy passages from the reputed
1999 document. He claimed in his rally speech that Kocharian
had showed the proposal to then-PM Vazgen Sargsian and
then-Speaker Karen Demirchian, who had categorically opposed
the proposal just one week before they were assassinated in
parliament. LTP called Demirchian and Vazgen Sargsian heroes
for having stopped this "betrayal" of Armenia. LTP reminded
listeners that Iran had been the country's only lifeline in
the early-to-mid 1990s, while Georgia was in civil war and
other borders were closed. He pointed out that a deal to
give Meghri to Azerbaijan would encircle Armenia almost
entirely by hostile Turkey and Azerbaijan. (COMMENT: LTP's
goal here is to shore up a perceived weakness, but also to
drive a wedge into the fracture point that exists between
Karabakhi Armenians and Republic of Armenia Armenians. The
implication is that the Karabakhtsis, Robert Kocharian and by
implication Serzh Sargsian, were ready to sell out the land
and interests of Armenia proper in exchange for a benefit for
their own home enclave. He is also reinforcing his claim that
Kocharian and Sargsian were responsible for the parliament
shootings that so traumatized Armenia in 1999. END COMMENT)


7. (SBU) LIGHT SECURITY: Police presence at the rally was
virtually invisible, though emboffs noted that a number of
police vehicles were staged well out of sight, on the far
side of the Opera House from Freedom Square.
PENNINGTON