Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08YEREVAN109
2008-02-11 13:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

DASHNAKS DRAW 10,000 IN FIRST MAJOR YEREVAN RALLY

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM 
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VZCZCXRO4874
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHYE #0109/01 0421310
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111310Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6986
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1447
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0530
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000109 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: DASHNAKS DRAW 10,000 IN FIRST MAJOR YEREVAN RALLY

REF: A. YEREVAN 102


B. YEREVAN 90

C. YEREVAN 89

D. YEREVAN 86

Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 B/D.


-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000109

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: DASHNAKS DRAW 10,000 IN FIRST MAJOR YEREVAN RALLY

REF: A. YEREVAN 102


B. YEREVAN 90

C. YEREVAN 89

D. YEREVAN 86

Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 B/D.


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) On February 8, presidential candidate Vahan
Hovannisian of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation
(Dashnaktsutyun) held his first major rally in Yerevan,
drawing approximately 8,000-10,000 supporters whom the party
bussed in from around the country . Under a heavy police
presence, considerably heavier than those visible at the
recent rallies of opposition rivals Levon Ter-Petrossian and
Artur Baghdassarian, Dashnak leaders and Hovanissian urged
voters to reject Armenia's current and former leaders on
February 19 and vote instead for Vahan Hovanissian.
Hovanissian promised to unite the two different Armenias that
have emerged after independence -- an alleged superficial
Armenia where privileged leaders benefit from shallow
economic growth, and a second Armenia where downtrodden
ordinary citizens have lost hope in justice and their own
future. The well-organized rally ended peacefully, with
supporters dancing to traditional Armenian music after
Hovanissian finished his comparatively brief half-hour of
remarks. END SUMMARY.

-------------- -
RURAL SUPPORTERS BUSSED TO RALLY -- FOR MONEY?
-------------- -


2. (SBU) In marked contrast with the urban-dominated
demographic of supporters at rallies recently held in
Yerevan's Freedom Square by presidential rivals Levon
Ter-Petrossian (LTP) and Artur Baghdassarian (AB),supporters
of Dashnak candidate Vahan Hovanissian hailed predominantly
from the countryside. With heavily tanned faces, dark
village attire, and sturdy physical constitutions, the
largely male, middle-aged supporters came from as far away as
Noyemberian, a city located three hours' drive away in
Armenia's northeast corner. The Embassy got a glimpse of the
influx of supporters, as 2,000-3,000 of them convoyed past
the embassy in buses, taxi vans and individual cars early in

the afternoon. PolOffs later had a hard time reaching the
rally with two of the city's main boulevards congested by row
upon row of buses.


3. (SBU) On Saturday morning, February 9, the opposition
daily Aravot (Morning) published what it called a
compromising photograph of Hrant Margarian, the top leader of
the Dashnak party, as he gave money to an unidentified man.
The photo was reportedly taken before the start of the rally
on February 8. The daily said the man approached Margarian
to be paid for bringing a busload of supporters to the rally.
Aravot said Margarian ended up paying the individual 20,000
Armenian Drams (approximately USD 66) after the latter balked
at the 10,000 drams initially offered him. (COMMENT:
Aravot's implication is that they have caught Margarian in
something seedy, although it's not clear to us that this was
anything more sinister than paying the bus driver for the
transportation services provided. END COMMENT)

-------------- --------------
DASHNAKS URGE VOTERS TO MAKE ELECTION 3-PERSON RACE
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Criticizing both Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian and
ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian, Dashnak leaders who joined
presidential candidate Vahan Hovannisian at the rally urged
voters to say "no to both." Trying to refute the widespread
perception that the current race is now between only Sargsian
and LTP, Dashnak speakers argued that both regimes were to
blame for the country's stunted economic development, the
lack of democracy, and the absence of the rule of law.
Hovannisian accused LTP of "hiding" his own former regime's
sins to try to manipulate voters' sympathies by stirring up
bitter animosity towards the current one. He also assailed
the authorities for responding to LTP's political games with
the "same hatred," declaring it a sign of their own weakness.


--------------
TIME TO END THE DIVISION OF TWO ARMENIAS

YEREVAN 00000109 002 OF 002


--------------


5. (SBU) Hovannisian also said it was time to end the
division of Armenians between privileged, corrupt rulers and
downtrodden, ordinary citizens who have lost hope in their or
their government's ability to improve their future standard
of living. "Seemingly the county is developing," he said,
but in reality "there is an unfree and unjust atmosphere."
He added that Armenia's economic development which has
benefited the privileged rich "has nothing in common with
ordinary people," and that the "country's leaders and
ordinary people live in two different worlds that are
unrelated" to each other. Hovannisian pledged he would
"return trust in justice" to Armenian citizens if elected
president.


6. (SBU) On February 7, Hovannisian made a somewhat
controversial comment in his reply to a journalist from the
independent online news agency A1 Plus when he suggested vote
falsification could jeopardize stability in the country after
the vote. When asked whether civil war could result from a
first-round victory by Prime Minister Sargsian, Hovannisian
replied that, "It depends on the results of the first round.
If they are not rigged, then no civil war will break out."

-------------- --------------
POLICE PRESENCE -- FOR OR AGAINST A COALITION PARTNER?
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) PolOffs who have attended most of the campaign
rallies held by presidential candidates in Yerevan's Freedom
Square were taken aback by the much heavier police presence
at the Dashnak rally. In contrast with recent LTP and
Baghdassarian rallies held in the same square with larger
numbers of supporters in attendance, scores of police -- many
of whom appeared to be officers -- lined the egresses of the
square where most supporters entered and exited. Many of
them also came inside the square during the rally, but
remained on the periphery where they observed rally
participants. Police numbers had been much smaller at other
rallies, where the police did not enter the square.


8. (SBU) The police presence was all the more remarkable
given the fact that the Dashnaks are affiliated in a
power-sharing agreement with the ruling coalition (whereas
LTP and Baghdassarian are bitter opponents of the ruling
regime). (COMMENT: The increased police presence might have
been the result of a violent incident that occurred in the
town of Artashat on February 6 when government-affiliated
bystanders assaulted LTP supporters during a rally in which
the ex-President issued a derogatory attack against the local
ruler of the area who happens to be one of the government's
most powerful -- and wealthy -- ministers. Or, perhaps the
Dashnaks inspire nervousness by bringing in such a large
number of burly-shouldered farm workers from the provinces,
many of whom have taken the party's very martial-themed
membership oaths, combined with Hovannisian's provocative
February 7 remarks. END COMMENT)

--------------
FESTIVAL ATMOSPHERICS
--------------


9. (SBU) Arguably the most well-organized national rally held
to that point in Yerevan's Freedom Square, -- though LTP well
outstripped it the next day -- the Dashnaks pulled out all
the stops to keep supporters in attendance. Unlike other
presidential candidates, Vahan Hovannisian mercifully kept
his address brief in the cold temperatures, speaking only 25
minutes. Also, and in stark contrast to other opposition
rallies so far, the Dashnaks erected a professional
performance stage, brought substantial sound equipment, and
operated a remote camera boom that filmed from overhead.
They also erected a special filming area in the middle of the
square from where party-affiliated media taped the rally --
presumably for later broadcast on the party's nationwide
Yerkir Media television network. They played traditional
music at the outset and the end of the rally, which set off
supporters in spontaneous rounds of dancing before they
peaceably disassembled for their bus rides home. (NOTE: In
the first interim campaign spending statement that Armenia's
nine presidential candidates had to submit on January 31,
Vahan Hovannisian led in spending, having already spent
44,000,000 Armenian Drams (approximately USD 143,300).
Reports indicate that most of this money has come from the
candidate himself. END NOTE.)
PENNINGTON