ARMENIA'S CIVIL NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANS

UNCLAS YEREVAN 001049


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ENRG TRGY BEXP BTIO

SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S CIVIL NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANS

REF: A) STATE 127468 B) YEREVAN 837

1) In response to Ref A, the Armenian government (GOAM) is in the
early stages of planning a new nuclear power plant to replace the
aging Soviet-era Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) at Metsamor.
The GOAM is under international pressure to close ANPP by the end of
2016 due to safety concerns, however, this timeline may have to be
extended if the new plant has yet to be finished. Embassy Yerevan
maintains regular contact with the GOAM about its plans for
replacement of ANPP and in 2008 USAID funded a set of Initial
Planning Studies for such a project. Post has reported regularly on
the GOAM's plans regarding a replacement for ANPP, most recently in
Ref B. Following are the questions in Ref A and post's replies:

2) ARE THERE ANY PLANS TO EXPAND YOUR COUNTRY'S CIVIL NUCLEAR POWER
PROGRAM?

The GOAM is planning to replace the existing ANPP with a new nuclear
power plant in order to comply with international demands to
decommission an aging facility whose design poses a potential threat
to public health as well as to the ecology of the region. The
current ANPP produces approximately 42 percent of Armenia's total
electricity output. As a result, the GOAM is considering various
options for building a new facility that would have a 1,000 to 1,200
megawatt (MW) reactor, approximately twice the current reactor's 440
MW capacity. This level of capacity factors increasing energy
demand within the Armenian economy over the plant's life, and the
possibility of energy sales to neighboring countries.

3) FOR EXPANDING NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMS, DESCRIBE YOUR COUNTRY'S
UNDERLYING MOTIVATIONS.

The primary motivation for a new nuclear power plant in Armenia is
energy security, as Armenia has poor energy resources and faces a de
facto blockade by two of its neighbors. Currently, Armenia is
forced to import all of its natural gas from Russia and Iran, and
receives its refined petroleum through Georgia. During the early
1990s, the ANPP was closed down following the 1988 Spitak
earthquake, and for several years the country was reduced to just
several hours of electricity per day. One of the two reactors was
reopened in 1995 with Russian assistance and remains in operation.

Armenia relies on ANPP for up to 42 percent of its electricity, with
gas-powered thermal and hydroelectric generation comprising 25-30
percent each. The 2006 Least Cost Generation Plan (LCGP) concluded
that a new nuclear unit is the least cost option for replacing such
a large percentage of the country's electricity demand, particularly
given the likelihood of steadily increasing prices for natural gas
from abroad. In 2007, the LCGP was adopted by GOA as consistent with
its energy strategy.

4) IF THERE ARE PLANS TO EXPAND NUCLEAR POWER, DESCRIBE THE
GOVERNMENT'S ROLE IN THE FINANCING OF ITS CIVIL NUCLEAR SECTOR.

A new nuclear power plant is projected to cost approximately USD 6-7
billion, equal to nearly 60-70 percent of Armenia's GDP. The GOAM
does not have the financial resources to build a new power plant,
and will need to rely on a combination of private sector investment,
debt financing, foreign government export credits and foreign
assistance to finance construction of a new facility.

5) DESCRIBE YOUR COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR REGULATORY AUTHORITY.

Nuclear power in Armenia is regulated by the State Committee for
Regulation of Nuclear Safety, known under its longtime acronym, ANRA
(for its old name, the Armenian Nuclear Regulatory Authority). It
is an executive agency which implements State regulation in the use
of atomic energy, including the safety of the population and nuclear
personnel, environmental protection and Republic of Armenia's
security interests.

6) DOES YOUR COUNTRY HAVE A DOMESTIC NUCLEAR LIABILITY LAW?

Armenia has a law on Safe Utilization of Atomic Energy for Peaceful
Purposes. The Law specifies relations in state regulation of atomic
energy utilization field, safety of nuclear facilities and other
relations in atomic energy utilization with the purpose to protect
personnel, public and environment, as well as the safety related
interest of ROA.

7) IS THE MANUFACTURING BASE IN YOUR COUNTRY INVOLVED IN
NUCLEAR-RELATED PRODUCTS OR SERVICES?

Armenia does not have an industrial base capable of producing any of
the specialized elements of a nuclear power plant. All of the major
items will need to be imported. In addition, the GOAM will need to
assess and if needed undertake modifications to a number of roads,
railways and bridges in order to accommodate some of the larger-size
components as they are transported to the site. Lastly a national
radioactive waste management strategy should be defined for Armenia
based on IAEA waste management requirements and guidelines to define
expected technologies and locations for storage and disposal of
radioactive waste from ANPP Units 1, 2 and 3.

8) HOW EXTENSIVE IS YOUR COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR-TRAINED WORKFORCE?

A large part of Armenia's nuclear plant operating personnel are
nearing retirement, with a limited supply of replacements coming
through the system. The GOAM has recognized this as a potential
problem and with help from educational institutions and ANPP
officials is taking steps to attract more students to the field of
nuclear physics and engineering. Currently, the GOAM is working
with the IAEA on a training and staffing assessment, which is
nearing completion. A functional task analysis approach is being
used to identify the tasks and competencies needed for each phase of
the NPP project: Initial Planning, Preparation, Construction,
Commissioning and Operation. They are also conducting a survey of
human resources in existing engineering organizations in Armenia
(e.g., ANPP, CJSC Atomservice, CJSC Armatom),preparing a survey of
technical training institutions in Armenia, and making
recommendations for human resource development and training.

The country will need to make a concerted effort to train new
skilled plant operators if it is to meet the needs of a new ANPP.
Construction of a nuclear power plant will likely entail recruitment
of the majority of the skilled workforce in Armenia. The Initial
Planning Studies also anticipate that there will be considerable
infrastructure requirements to support an imported
workforce--including homes and schools--during the construction of
the project.

9) DOES YOUR COUNTRY HAVE ANY CURRENT OR ANTICIPATED NUCLEAR-RELATED
TENDERS?

There are no current tenders, but the Government is moving forward
expeditiously towards a tender. The GOAM plans to issue tenders in
2009 for early-stage financial and design consulting. More
specifically, on December 25, 2008 the Armenian Prime Minister,
Tigran Sargsyan, headed a government session during which the
Government passed a bill on "Construction of new nuclear energy
blocks in Armenia", which will be presented to the RA National
Assembly. In a second resolution, the government approved the
contest package for the "Selection of the company in charge of the
construction of the new nuclear energy block" and confirmed the
staff of the inter-ministerial contest committee. The Prime Minister
assigned RA Energy and Natural Resources Minister Armen Movsisian to
make an official announcement regarding the international contest 15
days after the official record of purchases.

10) WHAT NUCLEAR SECTOR OPPORTUNITIES DO YOU FORESEE FOR U.S.
INDUSTRY?

There are potential opportunities for design, engineering, equipment
and financing firms. One of the three designs being actively
considered by the GOAM for the new nuclear unit is a Westinghouse
product. Moreover, GOAM officials have repeatedly expressed
interest in working with firms from a variety of western countries
in the development of a new nuclear power plant. Nonetheless, given
the large role played by Russian firms in Armenia's energy sector --
including its debt to Russia for restarting the existing plant -
there is considerable expectation that Armenia will turn to Russia
to build a significant portion of the new plant, including reactors
and other central infrastructure. While Russian firms have expressed
strong interest in engaging in the nuclear plant in Armenia, more
practically they are very busy with projects in other countries.
This could stretch their ability to finance or deliver a new plant
to Armenia under the current delivery schedule.

11) WHAT ARE THE PRIMARY COMPANIES INVOLVED IN YOUR COUNTRY'S CIVIL
NUCLEAR SECTOR?

Since the ANPP is wholly owned by the GOAM, the primary companies
involved in selling to and servicing its needs are either affiliated
with the government or are international contractors affiliated with
foreign government nuclear safety and assistance programs. The
existing engineering organizations in Armenia working on nuclear
matters include ANPP, CJSC Atomservice, and CJSC Armatom. A number
of European (nuclear safety and decommissioning) and Russian
companies (fuel supply and management service) are providing
services to ANPP, as well as U.S. National Laboratories and their
subcontractors (safety upgrades).

12) ARE THERE OTHER NUCLEAR SUPPLIER COUNTRIES ENGAGING YOUR COUNTRY
ON ITS CIVIL NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM?

Yes--Russia, France, the Czech Republic and the UK. As previously
noted, Russia is the supplier of nuclear fuel and has provided
management services. A French firm (Framatom) supplies equipment
for ANPP's dry storage for spent nuclear fuel. A Czech company is
conducting some of the ultrasound testing under a USDOE subcontract.
The UK has provided safety support to Armenia under the Armenian
government's nuclear safety program.

13) ARE THERE ANY POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS YOUR COUNTRY MAY TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT WHEN CHOOSING TO COOPERATE WITH COMPETING NUCLEAR
SUPPLIER STATES?

The GOAM works to maintain friendly relations with both the United
States and Russia, and consequently is likely to engage suppliers
from both countries - as well as from Western Europe -in development
of a new plant.

YOVANOVITCH


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