Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08YAOUNDE933
2008-09-29 16:31:00
SECRET
Embassy Yaounde
Cable title:  

BIYA REGIME MAKES CAMEROON "EXPLOSIVE" SAY

Tags:  PGOV PREL KCOR PHUM PINR PINS CM 
pdf how-to read a cable
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INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 0214
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
S E C R E T YAOUNDE 000933 
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CLASSIFICATION TO SECRET)

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR PHUM PINR PINS CM
SUBJECT: BIYA REGIME MAKES CAMEROON "EXPLOSIVE" SAY
INTELLECTUALS

Classified By: Political officer Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d.

S E C R E T YAOUNDE 000933
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CLASSIFICATION TO SECRET)

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR PHUM PINR PINS CM
SUBJECT: BIYA REGIME MAKES CAMEROON "EXPLOSIVE" SAY
INTELLECTUALS

Classified By: Political officer Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (S) Summary: In a September 19 discussion with AMB and
Emboffs, four leading Cameroonian intellectuals presented a
unanimously bleak assessment of the prospects for peaceful
transition in Cameroon, arguing that the Biya regime is so
myopically focused on its own preservation that it would take
"a miracle" to avoid a "violence so bad that you will have to
close the U.S. Embassy." France is increasingly irrelevant
to the Cameroonian public, they argued, while
Cameroonians place tremendous faith in the USG's outspoken
advocacy for democracy and anti-corruption. Despite the
USG's efforts, they predicted, Biya's regime will resist
implementing any liberalizing reform and will hold onto power
until it is forced to give way, likely through popular will
expressed in violence. These dreary sentiments are
representative of discussions we have had with other
Cameroonian intellectuals, who generally view Cameroon's
current regime as already beyond saving, with violence almost
inevitable. End summary.

"A Monarchy Dressed in Democracy"
--------------


2. (S) Ambassador welcomed four leading Cameroonian
intellectuals and opinion-makers (see bio notes in para 10)
to her residence on September 19 for an informal discussion
on socio-political trends in Cameroon. When asked about the
prospects for political transition, political scientist Eric
Mathias Owona Nguini argued that Cameroon is "explosive" and
has been in a state of volatility for at least a few years,
arguing that it would take "a miracle" to avoid violence and
instability in the post-Biya transition. Describing
Cameroon's government as a monarchy "dressed in the trappings
of democracy," Owona Nguini argued that Cameroon is still a
feudalist society as the relationship between the elites
(ministers, senior officials, traditional) and the common
people is more akin to lords and serfs than citizens of equal

standing.

Sitting on a "Volcano"
--------------


3. (S) Charles Ateba Eyene, an outspoken critic within the
ruling CPDM party, concurred with Owona Nguini's fundamental
diagnosis, saying that Cameroon is sitting on "a volcano."
He averred that the crisis is largely generational, with
older elites seeking to maintain dominance. Highly
centralized power structures and thoroughly corrupt officials
at all levels of government have created a system of elite
patronage which fundamentally fails to deliver services.
This is the case in every region of the country, he said,
including the Center and South, the heartland of Biya's Beti
power base. Ateba Eyene predicted that the population would
revolt against Biya's candidacy in the next presidential
elections, resulting in violence that would eclipse the
February unrest and force the USG "to close the US Embassy"
and evacuate our nationals.


4. (C) Economist Pius Ottou and political scientist
Justine Diffo Tchunkam indicated that they shared the general
outlook of Owona Nguini and Ateba Eyene, but said they had
decided to focus their efforts on increasing standards of
living for Cameroonians (Ottou) and expanding the role of
women in public life (Tchunkam) in order to facilitate
political reform.

"Prisoner" Biya Will Run in 2011
--------------


5. (C) Ateba Eyene and Owona Nguini argued that Biya is a
"prisoner" to three forces: the elites around him who have a
stake in perpetuating the regime he has created, his own ego,
and his wife, Chantal. Chantal Biya, many years Biya's
junior, reportedly has no interest in surrendering the
tremendous power she enjoys. All four took for granted that
Biya would present himself as a candidate in the presidential
elections, whether they happen in 2011 or earlier, as some
are predicting. All four lamented the lack of credible
national leaders to act as counterweights to Biya's regime,
with some arguing that John Fru Ndi and Ndam Njoya, the
leaders of the SDF and UDC opposition parties respectively,
had sold out to the Biya regime long ago and promised to be
"more Biya than Biya" if elected.

The USG's Role
--------------


6. (C) When asked what impact the USG might hope to have,
INTELLECTUALS

there was clear agreement that the solution would have to
come from Cameroonians themselves. Asked what impact USG
programs might have in Cameroon, Owona Nguini reiterated his
analysis that the regime would resist any efforts at reform
until its demise, but said the USG "can continue to engage
with the GRC on democratization and other programs, to
assuage your conscience." Ottou said Cameroonians are
aware--and resentful--of the French government's manipulation
of Cameroonian politics ("they choose our ministers" said
Owona Nguini). As a result, they are turning their attention
from France to the US, placing faith in the USG's outspoken
advocacy for democracy and anti-corruption efforts.

Comment: What Next?
--------------


7. (S) Our discussions over the past year with
intellectuals such as this distinguished group reflect a
consistent but growing sense that Cameroon is heading into a
dangerous future. Outside intellectual circles, the
arguments are usually less categorical and politically
framed, but they generally point to the same conclusion: that
Biya is very unpopular; that his government is run by a cadre
of disconnected, self-serving elites; that corruption has
withered the country's institutions; that average people are
more poor and desperate; and that the future beyond Biya is
fraught with uncertainty.


8. (S) For all his faults, Biya has succeeded in holding
together the wobbly and uneasy architecture that has been
Cameroon's stability. Nonetheless, that much-vaunted
stability is at threat in the long term as a direct result of
Biya's leadership over more than 25 years, a leadership that
has systematically co-opted or undermined the independence of
competing poles of power (from the judiciary and National
Assembly to the media and opposition political parties).
Against a backdrop of corrupt and dysfunctional institutions
and widespread popular discontent and fear, Biya's eventual
departure--whether by force of nature, his own choice, or
popular demand--could bring a period of violence and
instability.


9. (S) Whether the post-Biya era is violent or the
ever-enigmatic Biya maneuvers some kind of softer landing,
Cameroonians expect the USG to play a critical role in
strengthening those institutions that have been weakened by
Biya's rule and which could play a role in mitigating the
fallout from an uncertain or violent transition: the
judiciary, the national assembly, the armed forces, civil
society organizations, and the media. End comment.

Bio Notes
--------------


10. (S) The following biographical information is, in
itself, unclassified, but the individuals who participated in
the conversation could be susceptible to intimidation
(including the loss of their jobs) or prosecution for the
opinions they voiced.

--Eric Mathias Owona Nguini. A professor of political
science at the University of Yaounde II, Owona Nguini is a
highly respected political commentator. As an ethnic Beti
and the son of former cabinet member and Biya confident
Joseph Owona, Owona Nguini is personally familiar with the
ways of Cameroon's ruling elite.

--Charles Ateba Eyene. Best known as an outspoken, critical
member of the ruling CPDM party and the Beti elite to which
he belongs, Ateba Eyene recently published a hotly debated
book entitled "Les Paradoxes du Pays Organisateur," a
critique of Biya's system (inherited from previous President
Ahidjo) of cultivating nationwide support by currying favor
with narrow ethnic elites. Ateba Eyene has worked as a civil
servant.

--Pius Ottou. The Senior Economist at the University of
Yaounde II, Ottou is a prominent commentator on political
economics in Cameroon.

--Justine Diffo Tchunkam. A professor at the University of
Yaounde II, Tchunkam is the President of More Women in
Politics, a non-partisan civil society organization seeking a
larger role for women in national politics. Tchunkam is
critical of the regime's failure to engage women in the
nation's affairs, a failure that she argues will further
weaken the regime.
GARVEY