CAMEROON: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ON POLITICS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000873

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: CM ECON KCOR PGOV
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ON POLITICS,
CORRUPTION, THE ECONOMY

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott B. Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and
(e)


1. (C) Summary: On September 9, Pol/Econ Chief met with
Minister for Parliamentary Affairs at the Presidency and
Deputy Secretary General of the ruling CPDM party Gregoire
Owona. Owona confirmed that the ruling CPDM party will hold
a major Congress in the coming months, indicated that
President Biya would run again in the 2011 election, and said
that the long-expected Cabinet shuffle is tied to the timing
of corruption investigations. He hoped that several pending
investment projects would boost the economy. End summary.

Politics
--------------


2. (C) Owona confirmed that the CPDM will hold an
"ordinary" Congress before the end of the year, for the first
time in 12 years. The exact timing is undecided and
complicated by the budget session of parliament, which he
said precluded the meeting from happening in November. The
Congress will help the party prepare for the 2011
presidential and parliamentary elections, Owona said, noting
that there is need for new leadership in the CPDM Politburo
and Central Committee because many members have died, been
ineffective, are tired of the position, or are in prison.


3. (C) Discussing politics more broadly, Owona said the
President is committed to creating a Senate (as required
under the constitution) "before the next election," although
Owona claimed the timing was totally unrelated to the
upcoming CPDM Congress. When asked if the CPDM Congress
would deliberate on who the party's presidential candidate
for 2011 would be, Owona responded "it's obvious who the
candidate will be" (referring to President Biya) but "it's
too soon" for him to declare openly. Owona asserted that
Elections Cameroon (ELECAM) would be created by December or
January and he expected the CPDM to do well in re-runs of six
Douala mayoral races which the Supreme Court recently
annulled. (Owona thought controversial, powerful CPDM mayor
Francoise Foning would win her seat again. Prime Minister
Inoni said the same to DCM in a recent meeting, noting that
the main opposition SDF was weak in Foning's municipality.)

4. (C) When asked about persistent rumors of a Cabinet
shuffle, Owona said "only the President knows" when this will
happen. However, he added that many ministers were being
questioned about corruption allegations and Biya wanted to
wait until there was clarity from these investigations before
shifting his Cabinet. "It's not like your country, where
suspect officials can be expected to resign," he said, noting
that Biya would not want to keep someone who later turned out
to be corrupt. Owona was impressed that the Embassy had
organized an anti-corruption conference for the military
(September 8-11); acknowledging this was sensitive subject
matter, he said he had carefully read the Ambassador's speech
at the opening of the event and thought it was excellent.
The government's crackdown on senior corrupt officials was
important ("you have to start somewhere") but he thought much
more awareness building about corruption was needed.

Economics
--------------


5. (U) Pol/Econ Chief expressed concern that Cameroon's
economy does not appear to be picking up. Owona replied
"you're right to be worried," but he was confident that the
next few months would bring important positive news on the
economy. He cited movement in the energy and mining sectors
and the privatization of CAMAIR, although he did not know the
details.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The delayed creation of ELECAM, the deliberative
would-be Cabinet shuffle, the rare party Congress with
details left sketchy, the Senate put into the future, the
arrests of senior former ministers for corruption all seem to
point to a slow-motion, methodical path toward reinstating
Biya in 2011. During a recent trip to the East and North,
several senior CPDM officials confirmed to Emboffs the view
that the party leadership is primarily focused on regime
preservation, including preservation of corruption and
patronage networks. CPDM contacts believe that Biya has a
plan for how the next few years will play out, generally
believe that only he knows his plan, and agree that as a
result talking about succession is virtually taboo within the
party. Biya's air of mystery keeps his party stalwarts on
their feet, while retaining a stress level at the top. This
is always evident in meetings with Owona who, while friendly,
is also inevitably cautious, evasive, and a bit awkward.

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Biya's air of mystery also ensures a level of
unpredictability in Cameroonian politics which in the past
has at times proven Owona and others in the Presidency wrong.

GARVEY