CAMEROONIAN MINISTER: "SHUFFLE COMING, BIYA WANTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000772

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR TBIO CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROONIAN MINISTER: "SHUFFLE COMING, BIYA WANTS
OUT"

REF: A. YAOUNDE 758

B. YAOUNDE 237

C. 07 YAOUNDE 1308

Classified By: Political Officer Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary. President Biya had wanted to step down in
2011, but when he learned "young" officials were robbing the
treasury to finance their 2011 succession campaign, he was
forced to remove presidential term limits in order to squelch
internal jockeying for succession, according to Victor
Mengot, Minister in Charge of Special Duties at the
Presidency. In a July 30 conversation with Poloff, Mengot
claimed a special relationship with Biya, whom he said would
like to step down as soon as he has an acceptable succession
scenario assured. Mengot said Biya knows officials within
the Presidency are working to undermine his agenda, but that
he can't act too quickly for fear of destabilizing Cameroon.
Mengot said a cabinet shuffle is "in the offing" and that the
Head of Police and the Ministers for Economy, Secondary
Education, and Basic Education would be dropped and
subsequently charged with corruption. End summary.


2. (C) On July 30, Poloff called on Victor Mengot, Minister
in Charge of Special Duties at the Presidency, in order to
follow up on Paul Hanrahan's (CEO of American energy company
AES) July 24 visit to Cameroon (ref a). Mengot was clearly
eager to know the details of Hanrahan's audience with Biya.
Poloff confided that Biya had apologized to Hanrahan for a
misunderstanding that had arisen when the Government of
Cameroon (GRC) tried to pressure AES to accept a GRC-official
onto the AES-SONEL board. Mengot appeared surprised that
Biya was not actually the driving force behind the nomination
and that Biya had blamed the embarrassment on zealous,
out-of-touch "administrators" in the Presidency.


3. (C) Perhaps wanting to be on the right side of Biya's
apology, Mengot subsequently claimed he had spoken privately
with Biya to convey his personal reservations about the way
the nomination to the AES-SONEL Board had been presented as a
"fait accompli." Mengot said Biya had brought him to the
Presidency in order to counteract Presidency officials who
had become disloyal to Biya, often working to undermine his
agenda. Mengot said he enjoyed his position and would not
want to go "in town" (to one of the substantive ministries)
where he would not have as much influence or power, but
admitted he would be happy to be promoted to Deputy Secretary
General at the Presidency.


4. (C) Having broached the topic of disloyalty in the
Presidency, Mengot launched a broad discourse about the
jockeying within ruling circles. Biya had intended to step
down in 2011, Mengot asserted, but was forced to change his
plans when he learned "young" ministers whom he had been
grooming to take over had betrayed him and had been
embezzling from the treasury for a war chest to fund their
succession battle. Among the disloyalists, Mengot
specifically mentioned former Finance Minister Polycarpe Abah
Abah and former Health Minister Urbain Olanguena Owona (both
of whom are now in jail on charges of corruption) and former
Secretary General at the Presidency and Foreign Minister Jean
Marie Atangana Mebara, who was arrested on August 1.


5. (C) According to Mengot, Biya was also scandalized by
the scale of the embezzlement. Despite popular impressions,
Mengot asserted, Biya has accumulated negligible wealth
during his tenure as President. The large mansion being
built close to the U.S. Embassy compound is "for the
President's young family," and is owned by the GRC. Mengot
said Biya owns no property in Europe, unlike many in the GRC
and other presidents in the region, and is always forced to
stay in hotels when visiting Europe.


6. (C) Mengot said he asked Biya why he didn't act faster
to dismiss those who betrayed him; in response, Biya
rhetorically asked, "who would be left?" and insisted he had
to proceed slowly or risk destabilizing the country. Biya
removed Abah Abah, Mebara and Olanguena in the September 2007
shuffle and would undertake the next tranche in a shuffle
that is "in the offing," predicted Mengot. Mengot said four
ministers would be dismissed and then prosecuted for their
corruption:

--Edouard Alain Mebe Ngo'o, current General Delegate for
National Security (Head of Police or DGSN),former Chief of
Cabinet; an ethnic Beti;

--Louis-Paul Motaze, current Minister of Economy and
Planning, former head of the National Social Security Fund
(CNPS); a "nephew" of Biya's who grew up as a member of the

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President's household;

--Louis Bapes Bapes, current Minister of Secondary Education,
an ethnic Bassa;

--Haman Adama, current Minister of Basic Education, former
Secretary of State for Education, an ethnic northerner
(Fulani).


7. (C) Comment: Biya's intentions are famously illusory
(hence his nickname "the sphinx"),but much of Mengot's
analysis resonates with the image painted by other observers
and GRC insiders (and refs b and c): Biya wants to plan his
exit, but he will not allow his succession to be decided by
members of his own government; he is aware that some of his
closest advisors are disloyal, but is afraid of instability
if he moves against them too quickly. What remains to be
seen is whether Biya will find an acceptable succession
scenario within his lifetime and what degree of democratic
competition such a scenario would envisage.


8. (C) Although we do not want to be in the business of
choosing Cameroon's next leader (and Biya seemed in terrific
health in his July 24 meeting with Hanrahan),we do have an
interest in following closely the internal battles for
succession, especially inasmuch as the uncertainty could give
rise to dangerous volatility. For all his faults, Biya is
not brutal and he has succeeded in preserving Cameroon's
stability while her neighbors have suffered from debilitating
conflict. Some of the individuals purporting to wait in the
wings may not possess even Biya's degree of selflessness.
GARVEY