CAMEROON: POLITICAL MOOD UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000517

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2018
TAGS: CM EAGR ECON PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: POLITICAL MOOD UPDATE

REF: YAOUNDE 330

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)
.


1. (C) Summary: Political tension continues to be high at
the top levels of the Cameroon government amidst persistent
rumors of an imminent Cabinet shuffle and stepped-up
anti-corruption efforts. The President,s much-vaunted
emergency measures (reftel) have had little impact the
economic problems that were at the root of February riots but
on National Day he pardoned most of those arrested during the
recent civil unrest. The main opposition SDF party marked
its eighteenth year; media commentary focused on the party's
weak leadership and negligible political importance. While
this has been a period of political and economic pause and
most Cameroonians are resigned to the unpopular
constitutional amendment passed in April, growing frustration
with the economy and lack of democracy may fuel further
unrest at any time. End summary.

Political Tension at the Top
--------------


2. (SBU) The political environment continues to be tense
and uncertain in the aftermath of February riots, the
subsequent heavy security deployment and arrests of alleged
participants in the civil unrest, and the April passage of a
controversial constitutional amendment. Rumors have swirled
for the past few months about an "imminent" Cabinet shuffle,
possibly including the removal of the Prime Minister Ephraim
Inoni, which has so far not materialized. The rumors were
fueled by President Biya's obvious discontent about the
economic conditions at the heart of the riots and the way his
security forces handled the February events. Also fueling
the rumors have been a spate of recent corruption-related
arrests (driven to a large extent by political motives),
including the former Ministers of Finance and Health, the
General Manager of the Cameroon Shipyard, and others, as part
of the President's so-called corruption-fighting "Operation
Sparrowhawk". Growing press reporting of corruption related
to the purchase of a presidential plane, the "Albatross,"
also has many senior officials worried.


3. (SBU) Increased nervousness within the government was
evident at the May 20 National Day parade in Yaounde, which
was more thinly attended than usual, with unusually heavy
security. The President's wife, Chantal Biya, attended the
parade for the first time ever, sitting between the President
and Prime Minister Inoni, which many interpreted as a sign of
a rift between the two men.


4. (C) In a recent meeting with Ambassador and other Chiefs
of Mission, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Justice
Amadou Ali confided that there was "open warfare" in the
Cabinet.

Some Efforts to Defuse Trouble Below
--------------


5. (U) Following the riots, President Biya urged his
Cabinet to focus on the economy. He raised government
salaries by 15 percent and reduced duties on some food
imports in hopes of lowering food prices. Nonetheless, we
have yet to see much improvement in the economy. Food prices
continue to rise, and the government has talked up
agriculture but not put in place any new initiatives. The
GRC recently signed two Trade and Development Agency grants
worth $1.5 million to explore new energy project options and
has extended the exploration license of the US-led Hydromine
bauxite mining project, after major advocacy efforts by the
Embassy. In a recent meeting with Ambassador, several top
Cameroonian economists highlighted the government's continued
lack of economic vision, planning, or willingness to
stimulate the economy with fiscal policy.


6. (U) In a surprise move, President Biya went beyond his
tradition of providing prison amnesties on National Day, to
pardon all those in prison for riot-related offenses with
sentences less than one year, and reduced longer sentences by
two-thirds. According to a senior Ministry of Justice
official, this pardon gives the option for those who have
appealed their arrests or sentences to drop their appeals and
be released. He confirmed media reports that there will be a
small lag in implementation due to administrative procedures.
Biya's amnesty appears designed to help defuse criticism of
the thousands of arrests made following the February unrest.

Opposition Also in Pause
--------------


7. (SBU) While some in the media initially criticized

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parliament's April passage of a constitutional amendment to
eliminate presidential term limits, most Cameroonians -
including those most vocal in civil society - have moved on.
The main opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF) celebrated
its eighteenth year on May 26 with no fanfare. Media
editorials commented on the SDF's loss of influence, linked
to the weak leadership of its leader John Fru Ndi, who
continues to reject calls to step down. Parliament is out of
session until June; during the parliamentary hiatus since
passing the constitutional amendment there has been very
little political activity.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The political and economic pause has only
contributed to a feeling of growing frustration among many
Cameroonians. Many contacts and media commentators continue
to talk about Cameroon as sitting "on the edge of a volcano".
There is a mix of resignation and anger in the air - about
food and other prices, about unemployment and poverty, about
the lack of democratic space, corruption and the unpopular
constitutional amendment which not only eliminated term
limits but gave the president immunity from criminal
prosecution - all of which could boil over at any moment into
renewed social unrest. Biya is increasingly out of touch - a
President who never travels within his country and almost
never meets with average Cameroonians. In the midst of
rising Cabinet tensions and serious economic concerns, Biya's
departure from Cameroon on May 28 for a personal European
trip, his first time out of the country in seven months (an
uncharacteristically long time for him),has reinforced for
many his image of being removed from reality.





GARVEY