CAMEROON: CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION MOVING FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000346

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C SANKAR
PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ASEC KDEM PHUM CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION MOVING FORWARD

REF: A. YAOUNDE 103

B. YAOUNDE 211

C. YAOUNDE 329

Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer L. Wahid for reasons 1.4. b & d.


1. (C) Summary. The Government of Cameroon (GRC) on April 4
presented a bill to the National Assembly to revise the 1996
Constitution (ref c). Embassy contacts tell us the Assembly
will likely approve the amendments by April 11, and President
Biya will ratify them soon thereafter. This bill contained
several controversial amendments, most notably the removal of
presidential term limits and an immunity clause to protect
the President from prosecution for acts committed while in
office. The bill contained many expected revisions,
including extending the allotted time to organize new
presidential elections should the position become suddenly
vacant. The bill did not include the creation of a Vice
Presidential position, nor did it reduce the presidential
mandate from seven to five years, as President Biya told the
Ambassador he would do (ref A). Opinions are mixed on
whether the proposed constitutional revision foreshadows
Biya's attempt to cling to power beyond the expiration of his
current term limit in 2011, or is a signal that he is putting
his house in order to facilitate his eventual departure from
power. Cameroonians appear resigned to the inevitability of
the constitutional revisions, and there are few indications
there will be a violent reaction when (no one is still saying
"if") the bill is epproved. The GRC is counting on an
already increased heavy military presence to deter any repeat
of the kind of civil unrest seen during the February riots.
End Summary.


Constitutional Amendments
--------------


2. (SBU) The proposed bill contains a revision to Article 6.2
of the constitution, removing presidential term limits,
currently set at two terms. It also contains revisions to
five other articles of the Constitution. The bill proposes a
revision of Article 6.4, which would extend the amount of
time allowed to organize presidential elections in the case
of sudden vacancy from 40 to 120 days. A revision to Article
53.1 proposes that only the National Assembly and the Senate
with a 4/5 vote can initiate high treason charges against the
President, a change from the 1996 Constitution in which the
High Court of Justice can charge the President with high
treason without a vote from the National Assembly or the
Senate. Another proposed revision to Article 53.3 gives the
president immunity for acts committed while President, even
after he leaves office.



3. (SBU) The bill also contains amendments to the
Consitution regarding the National Assembly. A revision to
Article 14.3 aligns the opening session of the Assembly to
the opening session of the yet-to-be-created, much
anticipated, Senate. A revision to Article 15.4 proposes
that, in the case of serious crisis, the election of new
members to the National Assembly take place not more than 120
days (instead of 40 days) following parlaiment's dissolution.
A revision of Article 51 harmonizes the term of office of
members of the yet to be created Constitutional Council with
those of other elected officials, from nine to six years.
The proposed modification to Article 67.6 stipulates that in
case the Senate is put in place before the Regional Council
(charged with electing Senators),municipal councilors
elected in the 2007 would elect Senators. (Note: the ruling
CPDM party has about 300 municipal seats out of 325. End
Note.)


Moving Toward the Plenary
--------------


4. (C) On April 7, the bill was presented before the National
Assembly's Constitutional Laws Committee, which is charged
with evaluating each proposed law to ensure it is congruent
with Cameroonian law. The CPDM holds 18 out of 20 seats on
the Committee, with the two other members coming from the
opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF) and Democratic Union

YAOUNDE 00000346 002 OF 002


of Cameroon (UDC). Reportedly, the SDF member of the
Constitutional Laws Committee proposed the following
amendments to the constitutional revision bill: the
cancellation of Article 6.2, a two-ballot round for
presidential elections, the removal of the presidential
immunity clause, and a revision of the electoral body charged
with conducting elections (ELECAM). The Committee rejected
all the proposed revisions. The UDC also presented a
proposed modification of the Constitution to strengthen
ELECAM and to ensure free and fair elections, which was also
rejected. The bill has come out of the Laws Committee and is
expected to go before a plenary scheduled for April 10 or 11
(the 11th is the last day of the current session of the
National Assembly). The SDF has indicated that it will vote
against the constitutional revision. However, the CPDM holds
153 out of 180 Parliamentary seats and the bill is expected
to pass easily and to be signed by the President soon
afterward (he has 15 days to ratify the amendments).


Comment
--------------


5. (C) While not a surprise, this bill has been highly
controversial and is being introduced only six weeks after
Cameroon's worst violence in fifteen years. There is the
possibility of a violent reaction. However, most contacts
believe violence in the short term is unlikely. They note
that Cameroonians seem resigned to a "fait accompli" and are
fearful of the kind of strong government response seen after
the February riots. However, a few Parliamentarians have told
us they have received death threats from their constituencies
warning against voting for a constitutional revision. The GRC
has increased its security presence in Yaounde and Douala,
with multiple checkpoints on the highway between the two
cities. Extra guards have been stationed around the National
Assembly and the hotel for National Assembly members.


6. (C) The amendments are designed to strengthen Biya's
position, giving him the option of running for president
again in 2011, or sooner if he should decide to call a snap
election. Biya did not propose the creation of a Vice
President, which many thought he would. Gregoire Owona, a
Minister in the Presidency in charge of parliamentary
affairs, told Pol/Econ Chief on April 8 that this was
discussed and rejected because a Vice President would have
too much "incentive to kill" Biya. Strengthening the Prime
Minister's position was also discussed but Biya did not want
to create a stronger alternate base of power, Owona said,
stressing that the elimination of term limits was designed to
reduce conflict in the Cabinet. "Uncertainty is necessary in
our system," he added.


7. (C) Owona told us there is a 50-50 chance Biya will run
again. The main reason for the amendments, he said, is to
strengthen the succession mechanism should Biya leave or die
in office. He said the Senate and Constitutional Council
would be created soon. (Should a presidential vacancy occur,
the President of the Senate is constitutionally charged with
organizing fresh presidential elections but is not eligible
to run.) Some observers agree that Biya is trying to put his
house in order by quelling the political jockeying within the
CPDM and placing competent, impartial people at the helm of
the Senate and Constitutional Council before stepping down.
However, many others, including the independent media, are
highly skeptical of Biya's motives and fear that he is
amending the constitution to pave the way for a lifetime
presidency.
NELSON