Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08YAOUNDE256
2008-03-14 14:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yaounde
Cable title:  

DAS SWAN'S VISIT TO CAMEROON: RIOTS, THE

Tags:  CM ECON PGOV PHUM PREL 
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INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE 0112
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2029
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 YAOUNDE 000256 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018
TAGS: CM ECON PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: DAS SWAN'S VISIT TO CAMEROON: RIOTS, THE
CONSTITUTION, AND THE ECONOMY

REF: A. YAOUNDE 209


B. YAOUNDE 211

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)
.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 YAOUNDE 000256

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018
TAGS: CM ECON PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: DAS SWAN'S VISIT TO CAMEROON: RIOTS, THE
CONSTITUTION, AND THE ECONOMY

REF: A. YAOUNDE 209


B. YAOUNDE 211

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)
.


1. (C) Summary: During a March 7-9 visit to Yaounde and
Douala, DAS Jim Swan met with President Biya, other senior
government officials and representatives of business, media
and civil society. Publicly and privately, Swan expressed
USG concerns about Cameroon's recent riots, President Biya's
plans to eliminate term limits, and recent restrictions on
media freedom (reftels). President Biya described the
country as "very fragile" and justified his plans to change
the constitution in the context of internal party politics,
public demands for change, and African cultural traditions.
Other senior officials defended Biya's desire to leave open
the option of remaining in power beyond 2011, although they
said the President may not run in the next election. They
saw socio-economic frustrations as the root cause of the
recent riots. Civil society and business contacts spewed
cynicism and frustration about the Biya government,
highlighting concerns that submission of the constitutional
amendment to parliament (which some believe is imminent)
could spark renewed unrest. The French are confident Biya's
action has quelled the recent unrest, but are concerned about
longer-term instability. The EU is preparing a common
position on Cameroon that will emphasize the need for free
and fair elections in 2011. While Swan's message was well
received by both the government and civil society, Biya
nonetheless appears determined to go ahead with eliminating
term limits, which may usher in a period of political
turbulence in the country. End summary.

The DAS' Message
--------------


2. (U) DAS Swan's public message for the visit was: we
respect Cameroon's sovereignty and appreciate our strong
bilateral relationship and historical friendship. As
friends, we are concerned about the recent violence and
deplore the resulting loss of life (note: three days of

riots February 25-27 left at least 40 dead and caused damage
in five provinces, as reported reftel. end note.) Swan
noted that in a spirit of friendship, we have offered our
view that, in our experience, term limits are healthy for
democratic renewal and beneficial for institutionalizing
peaceful transfers of power in emerging democracies. He
reiterated that we believe changing a constitution should be
done through a process of inclusive national dialogue. Swan
noted the importance of a free press and due process for
those arrested after the recent riots.


3. (C) In his private meetings, Swan appealed to Biya's
desire for a legacy of democratic development and prosperity.
We were confident that, after 25 years in power, Biya is
capable of managing the transition without having to
eliminate term limits, Swan said. While we understood the
President saw the constitutional change as a way to reduce
internal Cabinet friction and we recognized the shortcomings
of the current succession mechanisms, we were concerned that
eliminating term limits could potentially transfer the unrest
from within the ruling circle to the broader society. The
DAS also underlined the importance of good elections and
thanked the GRC for its recent assistance with the evacuation
of our Mission personnel from Chad.

Meeting with President Biya
--------------


4. (C) In a March 9 meeting, President Biya made the
following points to the DAS (at Biya's request, the meeting
was one-on-one):

The Recent Violence: Biya saw the recent riots as rooted
largely in socio-economic concerns, downplaying political
factors. He was concerned that in many cases children were
put in front of demonstrations. He was pleased with the
professionalism of his security forces during this period,
who had orders not to shoot. Turning to measures announced
on March 7 to raise public sector salaries and cut taxes on
some food items, he said he had met with an IMF team
visiting the country at the time and that they agreed to
these measures.

YAOUNDE 00000256 002 OF 005



Freedoms: Biya said Equinoxe TV and radio and Magic FM radio
would be allowed to resume operations if they made firm
"engagements" to be more responsible. Almost all of the 1671
people detained as a result of the recent violence would be
released, he said, if they agreed not to undertake further
violence. Swan encouraged Biya to improve communication
about this kind of information.

US Business: DAS Swan said we hoped the U.S. company
Hydromine's pending mining project would be approved and that
this would help improve the economy. Biya knew about
Hydromine but did not commit to moving the project forward.
Biya praised the U.S. company AES, saying it had been
necessary to privatize the state electricity company SONEL.

Elections: It was important for the 2011 elections to be
credible, Biya said, adding that "even if I were crazy enough
to run in 2011" there was no guarantee he would win.

Constitution: Biya reinforced that he was considering
amending term limits in response to demands from the base of
the ruling CPDM party. He allowed that he made a mistake in
1996 when he agreed to term limits. The opposition is so
weak that the CPDM is the only truly national party that can
speak for the majority of Cameroonians, he said. He stressed
several times that Cameroon is "very fragile", with many
ethnic, linguistic, and regional divisions that are difficult
to manage. His four decades in government (25 as Head of
State) had "not been a quiet period", he said, noting the
coup attempt in 1984, the Bakassi border dispute with
Nigeria, and the elections over the years. He added that
currently there is significant infighting within his Cabinet.
It was essential to keep his options open about whether to
run again in 2011, in order to defuse this internal jockeying
for power, he asserted. He also said that in traditional
African society, people do not announce the death of the
chief until his successor has been decided.

More on the Constitution: When DAS Swan responded that we
have confidence in his ability to manage a transition in
2011, Biya underscored that he cannot manage the current very
complicated situation if people around him see him as a lame
duck. Term limits would not work in Cameroon, he stated,
hoping that the US would not be too vocal on the
constitutional term limit issue. DAS Swan assured him we did
not intend to hammer him on this issue and that our public
talking points were more mild and emphasized Cameroon's
sovereignty on this decision. Swan suggested decoupling the
issue of term limits from the question of amending succession
mechanisms in the constitution such as creating a Vice
President position. Biya said he would think about this but
that naming a successor too early would raise the level of
criticism against this person. He pointed to the case of his
nomination of Rene Sadi as Secretary General of the CPDM,
which people attacked as tantamount to naming a successor.
The same would happen if he named a Vice President without
changing term limits, he said.

Prime Minister Ephraim Inoni
--------------


5. (C) On March 7 and 8, DAS Swan had a series of separate
meetings with the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and other
senior government officials. PM Ephraim Inoni echoed Biya's
explanation about the naming of new chiefs in African
traditional society and asserted that the President was
seeking to change term limits for the benefit of national
peace. Inoni stressed the need for a credible, transparent
electoral system, highlighting his consultations with the
Commonwealth and domestic actors about the formation of an
independent electoral commission (ELECAM). On press
freedoms, Inoni justified the recent closing of Equinoxe
because it was not registered and had not paid taxes. The PM
admitted that he had a list of many other media outlets that
also were not legally registered, but averred that he did not
want to close them all. He would allow Equinoxe to restart
if it pays its dues and offered to be helpful in resolving
the problems with Magic FM, the VOA affiliate whose equipment
was recently confiscated.

CPDM Secretary General Rene Sadi
--------------


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6. (C) Sadi blamed the recent violence on "malaise among
the youth" and manipulation by those opposed to
constitutional change, both within the main opposition SDF
party and the CPDM itself. The government understands there
are economic problems and frustrations, he said. He was not
sure Biya would run in 2011 but stressed that the CPDM is the
only broadly representative party in Cameroon and the only
one capable of winning an election. Biya had no need to
prove himself or make money but was motivated in eliminating
term limits by a concern about shortcomings in the succession
mechanisms and the possibility of chaos when he leaves the
scene.

Foreign Minister Henri Eyebe Ayissi
--------------


7. (C) Ayissi described the recent riots as driven by
economic frustrations, especially about the high cost of
fuel. He dismissed the relevance of the constitutional
debate but opined that the youth had been manipulated to stir
up social disorder. Those subsequently arrested and the
media outlets that were closed were in violation of laws. On
the term limit issue, he underscored that this was a matter
of sovereignty and that institutions need to be adapted to
the situation of each country. Biya was within his legal
rights under the constitution to submit a constitutional
amendment to parliament and parliamentarians, as the
representatives of the people, embodied broad societal
consultation, he said. While supporting media freedom, he
criticized some in the media for irresponsibly inciting
hatred.

Minister of Territorial Administration Hamidou Yaya Marafa
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Marafa thought the internecine fighting within the
Cabinet was "getting out of hand" and would lead to a Cabinet
shuffle in the next few months. The opposition took
advantage of the taxi strike to sow disruption, he said,
adding that 38 people had died in the recent violence (on
March 10 he announced the figure was 40). Marafa had pressed
the President for several years to address the succession
gaps in the constitution and was convinced that Biya needed
to remove term limits to maintain the peace. Marafa saw the
planned Cameroonian Electoral Commission (ELECAM) as flawed.
In recent elections, too few people have registered and too
few received voter ID cards. ELECAM would not have the
technical capacity, personnel or financial wherewithal to
address these problems, he said, preferring a national debate
on the electoral process.

Governor of Littoral Francis Fai Yengo
--------------


9. (C) Fai Yengo said economic and political frustrations
had been building in Douala (capital of Littoral Province)
for some time. Many of the protesters were children, which
made it difficult for the authorities to intervene, he said.
The destruction was selective, which he was convinced
indicated an organized effort. Things were calm now in
Douala, he said, expressing confidence that recent salary
raises and price adjustments would help keep the peace. He
had banned demonstrations out of fear that they would lead to
violence and he would maintain this ban until there were
several weeks without demonstrations and he could be sure the
situation was stable. He criticized Equinoxe's broadcasts as
"beyond responsible" and said he would have shut it down if
the minister had not. The riots had not disrupted port
activities; this was confirmed in a later meeting with the
Douala Port Director, although he acknowledged that some
workers had difficulty getting to work during this period.

Civil Society and Business Views
--------------


10. (C) NGO leaders, media representatives, and other
non-official sources were generally critical of Biya and his
government. At a lunch in Yaounde, civil society
representatives described Cameroon as a "volcano" ready to
explode. Biya lacked credibility or legitimacy and was out
of touch with the substantial misery and frustration of his
people, they opined, adding that Cameroonians had no faith in
the institutions of government. While three of the guests
saw the potential for further dialogue and keeping the peace,

YAOUNDE 00000256 004 OF 005


Jean Claude Shanda Tonme, President of the Independent
Commission Against Discrimination and Corruption, and a
longstanding gadfly from the Bamileke community, stated it
was too late for dialogue and that he and many others (even
some within the government) were arguing and preparing for
war.


11. (C) Civil society contacts in Douala were equally vocal
about the shortcomings of the Biya government. While
pessimistic about the future, noting that none of the issues
driving the riots has been adequately addressed, they were
less dramatic and bellicose than those in Yaounde. The
recent violence was spontaneous, not organized, they argued,
noting the prominent role of the youth in the riots. They
disagreed on whether the President would seek to amend the
constitution in the coming month, but all agreed that such a
move could spur more violence. Business contacts, many with
close links to the government, lamented the destruction of
property and the negative effect on the investment climate of
the recent violence, but were generally less vocal on the
criticism of the government. For the most part, they
welcomed the new economic measures announced by President
Biya on March 7, saying that civil service salary increases
were long overdue.


12. (C) Douala-based Cardinal Christian Tumi, a longtime
critic of the government, also saw the main cause of the
recent violence as the country's "disastrous" economic
situation. He thought the targeted nature of the unrest
suggested support from well-educated youths but did not
believe they were backed by political parties or were greatly
motivated by the constitutional question. The fundamental
problem in Cameroon is the lack of credible, well organized
elections, he said, commenting that Biya's plans to change
term limits were just an effort to prolong his grip on power.
Biya does not care about his people and would be defeated in
a free and fair election, Tumi opined, noting significant
disaffection and frustration within the Anglophone community.


A French View
--------------


13. (C) French Ambassador to Cameroon Georges Serre
believed that Biya was focused on his economic legacy, which
was being stymied by an internal "war of succession," with an
ethnic (anti-Bamileke) undertone. To handle this, Biya was
very determined to eliminate term limits, which he has never
liked. Serre was convinced, after many meetings with Biya,
that the President would not run in the 2011 election.
Instead, he would create a Vice Presidential post (most
likely filled by Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Justice
Amadou Ali) and groom him as a successor, Serre opined.


14. (C) The EU is reviewing a joint statement on Cameroon
which Serre said would support the principle of alternance of
power (though not term limits) and the need for good
elections to consolidate democracy. As currently drafted, it
calls for a national discussion and debate on constitutional
change, underlines that the constitutional issue is
ultimately a question of sovereignty, and reinforces the need
for freedom of press and for supporting the less fortunate in
society.


15. (C) Serre said he shared the view of a recent EU report
on Cameroon that the country is in a period of instability.
The army is loyal to Biya, but this could easily change,
Serre said, adding that the military could not control the
whole country. Biya is isolated and paranoid and has allowed
only limited debate on the constitutional issue. He trusts
the French much less than a year ago, Serre confided.

Comment
--------------


16. (C) Biya appeared to take Swan's message seriously and
welcomed our private commentary on recent developments. His
arguments were similar to those conveyed to the Ambassador in
her January 31 meeting with the President. He professed a
sense of weakness, repeatedly pointing to the fragility of
the situation in the country and his inability to control the
succession process without amending the constitution. Other
officials also underscored strong U.S.-Cameroon relations and
appeared to receive Swan's message in a spirit of friendship.

YAOUNDE 00000256 005 OF 005





17. (C) The visit highlighted the fundamental economic
underpinnings of the recent riots. While officials stressed
outside manipulation of youths, many outside of government
(especially in Douala, the epicenter of the violence) saw
last week's events as largely spontaneous. We were struck by
the depth of anti-Biya sentiment shared by non-official
contacts. Despite recent salary and price adjustments (which
we will report septel),this suggests the real possibility of
more unrest in the future, especially if/when Biya submits
his amendment to the constitution.


18. (U) DAS Swan cleared this cable.



















































GARVEY