CAMEROON: OPPOSITION TO CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000121

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICER
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: OPPOSITION TO CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED

REF: (A) YAOUNDE 33 (B) 07 YAOUNDE 1478 (C) YAOUNDE
009 (D) YAOUNDE 112

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: Civil society representatives and opposition
parties in Cameroon continue to speak out against President
Biya's proposal to change the constitution. (Biya announced
in his New Year's address that he would "reconsider" a
constitutional amendment that would remove presidential term
limits.) Douala-based activists are becoming more
frustrated, preparing for demonstrations and planning to
pressure parliamentarians into voting against a
constitutional amendment. Activists in Yaounde are more low
key but talk about possible future confrontation. The GRC is
actively seeking to manage the opposition: the Governor of
the Littoral Province banned all demonstrations, opposition
activists continue to be interrogated about their activities,
the Minister of Communication is spearheading a government
propaganda effort to drum up support for constitutional
change, and the ruling CPDM is holding an extraordinary party
meeting reportedly focused on preparing the base for amending
the constitution. The Ambassador addressed constitutional
change in a widely-publicized February 5 speech whose impact
we are still assessing. End Summary.

Douala Activists Ready For Action
--------------


2. (C) Poloff recently traveled to Douala, Cameroon's
commercial capital and largest city, to take the pulse of the
city's political opposition. On January 21, John Fru Ndi,
President of the Social Democratic Front (SDF) held a press
conference in Bamenda, inviting Cameroonians to sign
petitions to signal opposition to a constitutional amendment.
This was the first statement from Fru Ndi since President
Biya's New Year's speech. The SDF had originally planned the
press conference in Douala; however, on January 15, Littoral
Province Governor Fei Yango Francis announced a ban on
demonstrations in the province. In a January 24 press
interview, Yango explained that he banned demonstrations, not
because of an impending march opposing a constitutional
amendment, but instead to keep order in Douala for the
working class. As reported in ref D, Minister of Territorial
Administration and Integrity Hamidou Marafa recently told
Ambassador that he ordered the ban out of concern about a
possible military reaction.


3. (C) Henriette Ekwe, Vice President of the Union of
Cameroonian Journalists and a prominent Douala-based civil
society activist, opined that even if Biya were to propose
other constitutional amendments, he would only implement the
removal of term limits. She said that SDF President John Fru
Ndi's response to Biya's New Year's speech was "soft" because
he felt he owed the GRC for its help when his wife received
medical treatment in France three years ago. Anicet Ekane,
President of the MANIDEM party, also expressed his
reservations about Fru Ndi's motivation, given his weak
response to the President's announcement. Despite Fru Ndi's
weak response, Ekane thought that only the SDF could organize
a large demonstration opposing a constitutional amendment.
Cardinal Christian Tumi, the Archbishop of Douala, told
Poloff that in principle he was not opposed to a
constitutional amendment; however, the people must support an
amendment and currently he thought they were against it. He
has not spoken out publicly on the issue and reportedly will
not do so until he meets with Biya and consults within the
Church.


4. (C) Poloff spoke with a roundtable of activists, motor
taxi operators (traditionally active in demonstrations),an
SDF representative and NGO contacts to discuss their strategy
for opposing a constitutional amendment. One of their plans
is to heavily pressure (read: intimidate) Parliamentarians to
vote against the amendment, telling them that the "people
would be watching". "Dont be fooled by the calm in Douala"
one SDF representative said, "underneath there is a boil".
They discounted popular theories that societal violence would
erupt should President Biya step down, although they thought
such a move could trigger violence among CPDM members
jockeying for power. They predicted that broader based

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societal violence would occur if Biya tried to hold onto
power.


5. (U) On February 2, Mboua Massock, a political activist,
defied the Douala protest ban by staging a demonstration to
oppose a constitutional amendment. Despite the police
surrounding his home to prevent him from leading the march,
Massock was able to lead a short demonstration with 600
participants. Observers noted that the police were very
gentle when trying to stop the demonstration. Security forces
have twice interrogated Massock about planned demonstrations
in Douala.

Yaounde Activists More Cautious
--------------


6. (C) Dr. Hilaire Kamga, a prominent civil society leader
and head of Human Rights Movement, told us his organization's
objective was to pressure President Biya not to change the
Constitution and if he does, not to run for a third term in

2011. During a recent meeting with the Ambassador, Kamga
outlined civil society's strategy as first working with Biya
in good faith. He opined that perhaps Biya was unaware of
the opposition and he hoped that the President would be open
to hearing civil society petitions. Kamga added that now was
not the time for demonstrations as there was no critical mass
and it would play into Biya's hands. However, his Movement
had requested a meeting with President Biya before February
10, when the President will give an annual Youth Day speech
to the nation. If Biya does not meet with the Movement,
Kamga's group is prepared to consider a more confrontational
strategy. Kamga also told Ambassador he was concerned about
the potential for civil unrest in the country if Biya
continues down the path of changing the constitution. Kamga
is going to Washington and New York in mid-February to meet
with officials and democracy activists.


7. (SBU) Professor Tazoacha Asonganyi, the former Secretary
General of the SDF told Poloff that people were frustrated
and ready to demonstrate; however, they needed a leader, and
the current candidates, including Fru Ndi, do not have the
people's confidence, he said. According to Asonganyi, in
order to lead a successful campaign against this regime there
would need to be a strategic and sustained opposition,
something he thought was not possible at this time. Other
civil society contacts in Yaounde remain concerned about
constitutional change but are somewhat discouraged about
their ability to influence the debate.

Comment: Government Containment
--------------


8. (C) The GRC is well aware of that there is opposition to
a constitutional amendment and believes it can be managed
with demonstration bans, low-key intimidation and clever
handling of the media. In a recent meeting with Pol/Econ
Chief, a senior Presidential advisor described the
government's aim as "organized dialogue" designed to "avoid
unnecessary tensions". The authorities are paying particular
attention to Douala, which has a history of opposition
demonstrations and where opposition passions are highest at
the moment. Numerous opponents to a constitutional amendment
have been questioned by security forces in the past few
weeks. For example, Dr. Ntoko Mekole Epie, a CPDM District
President, was reportedly questioned by security forces for
two hours after he voiced his opposition to a constitutional
amendment. After meeting with Poloff, one prominent
Douala-based activist was called into the Prime Minister's
office and told that the opposition should calm down and that
they would be consulted about a constitutional amendment. As
reported in ref A, Hilaire Kamga was interrogated by security
forces in January about his opposition (although security
forces have not bothered him since). The GRC is in the midst
of an extraordinary meeting of the Cameroon People's
Democratic Movement (CPDM),which has been reportedly been
actively discussing constitutional change; the party
Secretary General said the meeting would help mobilize

SIPDIS
members to work the issue with their constituents. The
Minister of Communication has also planned a government media
campaign to encourage a controlled discussion of the
constitution issue.

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9. (C) On February 5, Ambassador gave a speech which
addressed constitutional change and expressed USG opposition
to changing executive term limits in a way which is perceived
to benefit one individual or group. She encouraged
broad-based dialogue on the issue. The speech received major
news coverage and was well received by many in civil society.
One CPDM contact told us the speech has also influenced the
debate within the party about constitutional change. We will
report septel on the speech and the reaction to it and will
continue to monitor the interplay between the government and
opposition. For the moment, Douala remains calm and the
opposition elsewhere remains timid, but the growing signs of
frustration and more combative rhetoric bear watching.

GARVEY