CAMEROON: PRESIDENT BIYA AT 26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 001169

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: CM ECON EFIN PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: PRESIDENT BIYA AT 26

REF: A. 07 YAOUNDE 1308

B. YAOUNDE 237

C. YAOUNDE 1042

D. YAOUNDE 933

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)


1. (C) November 6 marked President Paul Biya's 26th year in
power. The occasion passed with little of the fanfare we saw
at his 25th anniversary, perhaps reflecting greater anxiety
and frustration in the country. 2008 was a particularly
eventful political year, marked by a controversial
constitutional amendment and nationwide riots, but also by
the full handover of Bakassi from Nigeria to Cameroon. Biya
retains his hold on power but faces mounting security
concerns, policy paralysis and significant public discontent.
The economy is performing below expectations and the
business climate, already poor, has deteriorated in recent
years. There is widespread poverty and Cameroon has slid on
a number of international performance indicators. Biya has
skillfully preserved power for decades and takes pride in
ensuring Cameroon's stability. However, the mood in the
country is increasingly anxious about stability, both in
terms of threats to physical security and in terms of
political and institutional uncertainty about the future.
End summary.
Historical Perspective
--------------


2. (C) As noted ref A, President Biya has been at the
heights of government in Cameroon since 1977, when he became
the Prime Minister of former President Ahmadou Ahidjo. On
November 4, 1982 Ahidjo surprised the nation with the
announcement he was stepping down after 24 years as Head of
State. Biya, his constitutional successor, took over as
president two days later. Over the next ten years, Biya
survived a series of crises, including a power struggle with
Ahidjo and a coup attempt in 1984. Major social unrest in
1990-92 led to a period of slow reform, including an IMF
structural adjustment process (1988),multiparty elections
(1992),multiparty municipal elections and a new constitution
(both in 1996). Biya allowed greater media freedom and
opened up more to the outside world.


3. (C) 2008 was perhaps the most tumultuous year in
Cameroonian politics in the past decade. Starting on January
1, Biya used his New Year's message to announce his intention
to modify the 1996 constitution to eliminate presidential
term limits. This sparked nationwide discussion of
constitutional change, with many in civil society and the
opposition strongly opposed. Discontent with the proposed
constitutional change contributed to general frustration with
rising food and fuel prices and sparked the country's worst
riots in 15 years in February. The government responded with
force, resulting in the arrest of over 1,600 people, the
death of at least 40 (official figures),and a period of
heightened media intimidation. In April, parliament passed
the constitutional amendment with virtually no debate, not
only eliminating presidential term limits but giving the
president immunity from criminal prosecution. The government
subsequently released many of those arrested and lifted the
restrictions on several media houses.


4. (C) On a more positive note, in August, Cameroon took
full control of the Bakassi Peninsula, bringing to a close a
fifteen year dispute with Nigeria. Biya also stepped up his
anti-corruption campaign, dubbed "Operation Sparrow Hawk"
("Eparvier" in French),leading to the corruption-related
arrest of four former ministers, including former Finance
Minister Polycarpe Abah Abah, and a half dozen other senior
officials.

Biya's Ways
--------------


5. (C) Biya has maintained power through classic
authoritarian means. He has combined strategic political
openings (as in the 1990s) with the rare, strategic use of
force (1992, 2008). He tolerates (although doesn't appear to
condone) a high level of corruption, which spreads patronage
among his allies and underwrites the activities of the ruling
Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) party. He has
carefully balanced ethnic, regional and linguistic groupings
in the military and bureaucracy, which has significantly

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reduced the influence of ethnic or regional politics. The
opposition has been largely co-opted, either with ministerial
posts, favors or cash. Biya has also maintained a highly
centralized, hierarchical political system, with a trusted
group of senior statesmen or apolitical bureaucrats at the
top (what we call "elders" and "faithful" in ref B). Biya is
also famously enigmatic, which he uses to good effect to keep
his Cabinet and potential detractors off guard.


6. (C) This has yielded a conservative, preservationist
regime. Decision-making is slow and very centralized, the
bureaucracy is highly dysfunctional. The government places a
premium on maintaining stability and Biya would likely see
this as his biggest achievement, especially in the context of
Cameroon's great ethnic, linguistic, and regional diversity
and the instability plaguing many of Cameroon's neighbors.

Will Stability Last?
--------------


7. (C) Biya's 26th anniversary was marked by a series of
press articles underscoring a growing sense of insecurity
among the public. Analysts point to the recent spectacular
bank robbery in Limbe, a recent pirate attack offshore
involving the kidnapping of expatriate oil workers, and an
unusually prolonged highway robbery at the entrance of
Yaounde. They note the recent death of a military officer in
a clash with bandits in the north as well as the embarrassing
collusion by gendarmes in the kidnapping of a high profile
Equato-Guinean refugee (ref C). Some contacts worry about
spillover from insecurity in Chad. The peaceful handover of
the Bakassi Peninsula from Nigeria was preceded by numerous
banditry attacks, killing over 20 security forces and a local
official. Our contacts have expressed frustration that, in
face of rising security problems, there has been no
significant repercussion on the security leadership. State
control is seen as weakening in many parts of the country.


8. (C) This is coupled with a growing sense of policy
paralysis. Biya recently returned from about six weeks
overseas, staying well beyond the UNGA and Francophonie
Summit and fueling rumors that he was in ill health (one
media source even reported that he had died). He relies on a
small group of advisors for information and, when he is in
country, he spends much of his time in his village. While he
appears to be (as far as we know) a healthy 75 years old, he
did nothing in the past year to reduce uncertainty about
succession scenarios; the constitutional amendment leaves
open the possibility that he will run again in 2011 (as one
senior insider in the presidency told us he plans to do).
The amendment also allowed the Senate to be created by
municipal councils rather than non-existent regional councils
(as required under the 1996 constitution). This suggests
Biya's intention to create a Senate, which is supposed to be
the constitutional succession mechanism, but he has made no
moves to do so yet. Despite public frustration with the
current Cabinet, Biya's long expected Cabinet reshuffle has
yet to materialize. The creation of an Electoral Commission
(ELECAM) was delayed from June to December and it is
beginning to appear that that date will also slip. The
ruling CPDM announced plans to hold its first Congress in
twelve years but has yet to set a date. Although it has had
some successes, "Operation Eparvier" has increased friction
within the top levels of government and slowed decision
making. In some ways, Eparvier has also fueled public
impatience because Cameroonians recognize that corruption is
still pervasive at all levels and because the government has
so far been unsuccessful in returning to Cameroon the
proceeds of corruption stashed abroad.


9. (C) The February riots were a reminder to many that
there is significant discontent among average Cameroonians.
Since February, food prices appear to have continued to rise,
as has overall inflation. Macroeconomic stability and strong
government revenues have not translated into significant
economic growth (the Prime Minister's recent downward
projection of 4% GDP growth in 2009 is barely above 3%
estimated population growth). Fiscal reform has continued
but economists are frustrated with the government's failure
to improve the business environment. The lack of vision or
significant planning in economic management is seen in many
areas, including the absence of a clear agriculture strategy
and the lack of clarity on the future of the three year IMF
program due to expire this December. Most analysts believe

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poverty has not changed much in the past few years and that
service delivery is generally poor. Cameroon slipped
slightly from 2007 to 2008 in the Transparency International,
Freedom House, and World Bank Doing Business reports, as well
as in 9 of 17 Millennium Challenge Corporation indicators.


10. (C) Some intellectuals and NGO leaders believe this is
all pointing to violence as Cameroon heads toward
presidential elections in 2011 and parliamentary and
municipal polls in 2012 (ref D). A number of other prominent
contacts are convinced that a violent transition can be
avoided. Some hope voters can be mobilized for real change
in 2011. Others are convinced Biya will manipulate the 2011
election period to stay on long enough to ensure a successor
of his choosing. Any number of scenarios is possible; Biya's
sphinx-like isolation set against the backdrop of an
unusually active political year has left many in Cameroon
anxious about the future.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Biya's legacy over 26 years is mixed. He has
delivered stability, some democratic opening, and limited
economic reform. Most visitors who have been away for long
periods assure us that there has been modest change for the
better - more political openness, a lower level of ethnic
politics, new construction, less garbage on the streets, and
greater economic stability. However, change has come very
slowly. Many Cameroonians are convinced that people are
worse off today than they were in the 1990s. There is a
deep-seated despondency, as reflected in the low turnout in
recent municipal elections, this year's subdued national day
parade and the low-key celebration of Biya's 26 years in
power.


12. (C) Even Biya's detractors fear that if the President
were to suddenly die the lack of a viable succession
mechanism and the weak state of political institutions could
toss the country into a period of chaos. Biya may be able to
manage a smooth transition to a post-Biya era - he cares
about his legacy and some believe he wants to follow in
Ahidjo's footsteps by easing out of office. But there are
heightened political risks in the coming few years.


13. (C) Many in the government and among the general
populace look to the United States to help lead Cameroon
through the transition period of the next several years. We
have strategic interests at stake in Cameroon; it is a large
oil-producing, mineral-rich country with the largest port in
Central Africa, whose stability is key to the stability of
the entire region. Post will continue to explore how the USG
can best use its leverage and pursue our democracy,
economic/commercial and security interests in the country as
Biya heads into his 27th year in office.
GARVEY