CAMEROONIAN PRESIDENT BIYA TELLS AMBASSADOR HE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000103

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018
TAGS: ASEC ECON ENIV MAS PGOV PHUM PINR PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROONIAN PRESIDENT BIYA TELLS AMBASSADOR HE
PLANS CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

Classified By: Ambassador Jane E. Garvey for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e).


1. (C) On January 31, Ambassador met for one-and-a-half
hours with President Paul Biya, at our request. Biya
outlined his plans to change the constitution in March to
eliminate term limits. He hoped this would reduce internal
friction within his government. He plans to create a Vice
President position and hopes to get the Electoral Commission
off the ground in anticipation of elections in 2011. He was
worried about Cameroon's security situation and appreciated
USG mil-mil cooperation. Biya reiterated support for
fighting corruption, voicing distrust of a key figure in our
cooperation in this area, Francis Dooh Collins. End summary.

Constitutional Change
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador told Biya that Washington was concerned
about the pace and direction of his move to change the
constitution to eliminate term limits, noting that the United
States viewed term limits and leadership change as healthy
for democracy. Biya confirmed that in March he plans to
change the constitution to eliminate term limits. His
government had become increasingly distracted by internal
jockeying for position in anticipation of a succession
post-2011, when his mandate was due to expire. The internal
battles were preventing the proper functioning of government,
he said, adding that Cameroon could not handle three years of
campaigning. He feared the military might intervene in such
a case. Also in March, he plans to amend the constitution to
create a position of Vice President. This was a more
significant change than changing term limits, he said,
ensuring leadership "if the President dies". The current
constitutional arrangement, which in case of his death would
cede power to the Speaker of the National Assembly until
elections 40 days later, are untenable and could spur
military intervention, he said. Biya did not depict the Vice
President as his obvious successor or even the party's
candidate in 2011. When Ambassador asked if he would run in
2011, Biya said "I don't know if I'll be alive, or a
candidate, or if I run, if I will be elected."


3. (C) Biya praised US-Cameroon relations and appreciated
the attention we give to his country. He asked Ambassador to
convey to President Bush his commitment to "move toward
democracy". It was important for 2011 elections to be
"sincere" (Ambassador interjected "transparent and
democratic" and he repeated "sincere"). Biya stressed the
importance of creating the Electoral Commission ELECAM this
year and giving it independence from any ministry. He
acknowledged the importance of press freedoms, although he
thought it was at times abused. Biya was contemplating
sending emissaries to Washington, London and Paris to explain
his rationale for constitutional change.

Security
--------------


4. (C) Biya was very concerned about the country's security
situation, citing worries about the possible spillover of
instability in CAR, Chad, and Sudan and noting the challenges
of banditry, especially in the north. He was puzzled by the
recent attack against Cameroonian troops in Bakassi, saying
an investigation was still ongoing but many of the details -
especially the fact that the local commander had ordered
weapons to be locked up - were troubling. He noted the many
internal forces threatening internal stability, wanting to
avoid a situation like Kenya.


5. (C) The President repeatedly praised USG security
assistance. He had read a January 16 letter from the
Ambassador outlining USG mil-mil engagement and showed
Ambassador a large dossier of documents he compiled to read
up on the subject. He was delighted with our ongoing navy
ship visits and the upcoming ACSS maritime security
conference, saying he would send many senior officials to
attend. He was interested in planned special forces training
and looked forward to the late February visit of AFRICOM
Commander General Ward. Cameroon wants to participate in
peacekeeping operations and is prepared to contribute three
battalions of troops but does not have the funds to equip and
deploy them, Biya said, though he speculated that Nigeria
might be able to help financially.

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6. (C) Biya said he would remove several of his generals in
the next month, criticizing them as too old and fat. He
encouraged us to work with the Israeli colonel assigned to
his presidential guard, who he conceded could be difficult
but was effective. He clearly did not think highly of
Minister of Defense Ze Meka.

U.S. Commercial Interests
--------------


7. (C) The President said he wanted to encourage U.S.
investment and he was aware of the U.S. mining company
Hydromine and recent discussions with a US company to manage
Camair (Note: PM Inoni told Ambassador just before she went
to the Presidency that the GRC hoped to get US company
Capital Aerospace to help Camair. End note.)

Corruption
--------------


8. (C) The President stressed his continuing commitment to
combating corruption, which he thought was important to
tackle now because it would be more difficult once a "young"
president takes his place. He was aware of efforts by the
police and ANIF (the GRC's financial crime office) in
corruption cases, saying would act on several dossiers in the
next month. He was frustrated with corruption in the army
and said he did not trust Francis Dooh Collins, whose
services were costing too much (note: As reported septel,
Collins is the central figure who has been working with the
Ministry of Justice, USDOJ and other foreign governments to
recover illicit funds overseas. He is also part of a new
anti-moneylaundering cell. End note.) Biya was interested
in recuperating overseas proceeds from corruption and said it
was not necessary to send corrupt officials to jail if they
were cooperating with the government and showed remorse. He
implied that his highly corrupt former Minister of Finance
Abah Abah was cooperating.

Echoes of Other Conversations
--------------


9. (C) Conversations we have had over the past week with
people highly placed in the government offered slight twists
on Biya's plans. In a January 28 meeting, Deputy Secretary
General of the Presidency, Philemon Yang, told the Ambassador
that since 2003, some CPDM "militants" had been advocating
changing the presidential term limits. Yang said that Biya
thought his comments in the October 2007 France24 interview,
in which he said the constitutional issue could wait, would
sideline the party "militants" but it did not (Biya, on the
other hand, intimated to Ambassador that this interview was
not planned and his remarks on the constitution not well
thought out). Yang insisted that no decision had been made
about a constitutional change and that there would be an open
discussion about the matter with the opposition. Yang added
that Biya has always "carried himself as someone whose term
will end in 2011" and that the oppositions' fears that Biya
wants to remain in office for life were "unwarranted". Yang
said that the current issue of changing term limits was
merely a "procedural" matter which could be handled through
Parliament and depicted constitutional change as "part of a
package" that would include creating a transparent,
independent ELECAM, which he said would be in place before
June. Yang emphasized that the President was trying to be
"thoughtful" in his actions, mindful of his militant party
wing and the lack of a democratic political culture in the
country.


10. (C) Poloff recently spoke to a close family member with
considerable access to Prime Minister Ephraim Inoni who
concurred that Biya wanted to use constitutional change as a
way to maneuver himself out of office while ensuring the
safety and security of his family, ethnic group and the
nation. He believed that Biya would change the Constitution
in March, create a Vice Presidential position and reduce the
Presidential term limit. The source predicted that Biya
would hold an extraordinary congress of the CPDM in which he
would announce the Vice President. (Note: The CPDM recently
announced a "seminar" for all CPDM Section heads to begin on
February 7. End Note.) He thought the VP would not be a Beti
(the President's ethnic group),a Northerner (many

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northerners are still bitter over the treatment of former
President Amadou Ahidjo) or a Bameleke (considered already to
be too economically powerful). Instead, he opined, it would
be someone from a politically neutral part of the country.
The source added that the President would call for elections
in the first half of 2009 and then would step down.


11. (C) CPDM Parliamentarian and Vice President of the
National Assembly Rose Abunaw told us separately in the past
week that the President would not wait until the March 2008
Parliamentary Session, but instead would call an
extraordinary Parliamentary Session to pass the
constitutional amendment in February. Poloff also spoke with
Adama Modi, an outspoken CPDM Parliamentarian, who stated
that President Biya's primary concern was the safety of his
family and nation. He opined that perhaps if Biya were given
assurances that there would be no retribution against him,
his ethnic group or his family he would leave the Presidency
in 2011. Finance Minister Essemi Menyi also confirmed Biya's
plans to change the constitution in a discussion with
Ambassador this week, saying there were "too many bull
elephants" in the government and Biya was trying to reduce
the dissonance in his administration.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Biya was talkative, engaging and well informed. He
spoke of his exercise routines (swimming, walking and biking)
and seemed energetic, although his eyes were very bloodshot.
It is not clear that he is worn out and seeking an exit any
time soon, as many speculate. He was not in a listening mode
on the issue of constitutional change; he offered up his
thoughts on all these issues virtually unprompted and
appeared to have clearly made up his mind on the term limit
issue, despite suggestions by Philemon Yang that the
President remains in some way open minded. Biya professes
personal affection for President Bush, values our mil-mil
relationship, and sees our commercial relationship as a
counterbalance to the Chinese, who he appears to distrust.
We can hope for (but not bank on) progress on corruption and
investment promotion. We will continue efforts to promote
political dialogue and democracy building and will speak out
about the democratic value of term limits and regular
leadership change. However, it is now clearer that we
probably have little to no scope to change Biya's mind on
extending term limits through a constitutional amendment.












GARVEY