SIZING UP THE RDP

C O N F I D E N T I A L WINDHOEK 000407


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV WA
SUBJECT: SIZING UP THE RDP

REF: A. REF A: WINDHOEK 394

B. REF B: WINDHOEK 0035

Classified By: Ambassador Dennise Mathieu per 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP)
celebrated its first birthday in November. The party may be
new to Namibian politics, but its players are not. Led by
former SWAPO stalwarts and well-known personalities elected
at the party's December 5 congress, the RDP seems poised to
give the Southwest Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) some
competition in next year's general and presidential
elections. However, it is not yet clear whether the party
stands for real political and economic change. End Summary.

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RDP Heads to Court
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2. (U) Two weeks after the events in Outapi (ref A),the RDP
was again in the national spotlight when on December 4, hours
before the opening of its first party congress at the
Windhoek College of Education (WCE),officials from the
Ministry of Education informed the RDP that the venue was no
longer available. The party claimed it had already paid for
the conference hall and that 500 delegates from around
Namibia were on their way to Windhoek. No reason was given
for the cancellation, but the RDP did not hesitate to
publicize its suspicions. "It is another testimony to
SWAPO's thuggish methods to stifle democracy in this country,
and this comes just after the recent incident in Outapi," the
RDP said in a press release.


3. (U) On December 5, the RDP took its complaint to the High
Court, where the rector of the WCE insisted that the Ministry
of Education forbade the use of the WCE by political parties.
The RDP's attorney refuted this statement, pointing out that
the SWAPO Youth League had held meetings at the WCE. The
Ministry also argued that it had never seen or approved the
RDP's application to host its event, but the RDP provided a
letter from the WCE that stated its application had been
approved. Acting Judge Johan Swanepol decided in the RDP's
favor, ordering the WCE to comply with the rental agreement
and the Ministry of Education to cover the RDP's legal
expenses for the last-minute trial.

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Hamutenya Elected RDP President
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4. (SBU) Hours later under notable police presence, the RDP
convoked its congress at the WCE. Chanting "RDP, Vive!" and
the party's new slogan "We can do better," the delegates
celebrated the legal victory and praised the RDP members who
had confronted SWAPO in Outapi. Flanked by body guards,
former Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya gave the opening
ceremony's keynote address. (Note: President Nujoma sacked
Hamutenya in 2004 after he ran for the presidency of SWAPO.
End Note) In it, he took numerous shots at SWAPO, making fun
of the ruling party's claim that its members had been
provoked in Outapi and during the Tobias Hainyeko campaign
(ref B) and boasting that SWAPO fears the growing popularity
of the RDP. "SWAPO is literally panicking and behaving like
a wounded lion," Hamutenya claimed. On the policy side, he
criticized President Pohamba for failing to address
corruption and regional development, and he laid out the
RDP's platform in broad strokes. He promised the party would
improve the education system, create jobs, expand the
economy, rehabilitate public services, and provide better
health care. Hamutenya also chided himself and RDP members
for allowing Namibia to come under "one-party rule."


5. (U) In addition to fleshing out its manifesto and campaign
strategies in closed sessions during the rest of the
congress, the party also elected new leadership. Hamutenya
was chosen as party president; Steve Bezuidenhoudt, a former
SWAPO member from Keetmanshoop, was elected vice president,
and Jesaya Nyamu, former Minister of Trade and Industry and
former Minister of Mines and Energy, was named secretary
general.

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An Alliance in the Works?
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6. (C) In a conversation with Poloff, RDP organizers Libolly
Haufiku and Norah Appolus predicted that the RDP was on the
verge of coming of age and becoming a political force with
which to be reckoned. Unlike the other opposition parties,
Appolus remarked, the RDP had representation and functioning
offices in all 13 districts around the country. Haufiku
claimed the party's strength came from its familiarity with
SWAPO and thus an ability to hone in on its shortcomings. He
accused SWAPO's leadership of being autocratic and paranoid.
In addition to allowing conditions in Namibia to decline,
SWAPO's tendency to spy on its leadership was costing it
prominent members, Haufiku theorized. "Nujoma started
Mugabe-like undemocratic behavior. The moment you question
(the party),you are ostracized and left out of invitations."
Haufiku could not estimate the number of RDP members, saying
that its database of 180,000 members was deceptive, since
"many of them are underground," but he is convinced the party
is gaining significant ground, especially with the youth.
Haufiku and Appolus also outlined RDP's main tasks over the
next year: expanding its membership, addressing political
violence, and most difficult-- raising enough funds to
effectively compete in the elections. They reiterated
Hamutenya's party platform, but did not offer details.


7. (C) In a separate conversation, Member of Parliament and
leader of the opposition Republican Party (RP) Henk Mudge
echoed the RDP's financial concern to Poloff on December 8.
Mudge, who sat in the front row of the RDP congress, confided
that he has been talking to his friend Hamutenya about the
possibility of forming not a coalition, but an alliance.
Mudge said he has also broached the subject with the
leadership of a tiny Caprivian political party as well as
with senior members-- although not necessarily the leaders
of-- several other opposition parties. Mudge is confident
that the RDP will unseat SWAPO's two-thirds majority in the
National Assembly, but said that an alliance backed by
significant funding was necessary to take the victory to
another level, namely for Hamutenya to be elected Namibia's
next president. Mudge estimated the RP and RDP would each
need to raise $700,000 (U.S.) and requested assistance in
establishing contacts in the U.S. private sector. Poloff
explained that the USG could not offer such assistance.

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Commentary
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8. (C) The RDP may be riding high on its recent legal victory
and its well publicized show-down in Outapi, but the party
faces a steep uphill battle as it challenges the well-oiled
SWAPO political machine. The RDP is unlikely to garner the
financial resources it needs to match SWAPO's war chest, and
the majority of Namibians, particularly those outside urban
centers, still feel strong loyalty to their liberation party,
SWAPO. Nevertheless, the RDP seems to have made in-roads in
attracting new members, particularly the youth. If allowed
to freely organize between now and election day, the RDP will
be able to stay in the public eye and interact with regular
Namibians around the country. The latter is especially
important if the RDP is to become more familiar and a more
comfortable choice for the populace. Moreover, if the RDP
benefits from the assistance of other opposition parties, it
stands a decent chance of cutting in to SWAPO's majority in
the National Assembly. Currently, SWAPO holds 55 of the 72
seats; thus, the RDP and the other opposition parties would
need to win seven of those to take away the two-thirds
majority. And it may take just such a victory before it is
evident whether the RDP represents real political and
economic change or whether a party led by SWAPO defectors
means more of the same.


MATHIEU