POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN NAMIBIA FORESHADOWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L WINDHOEK 000394


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM WA
SUBJECT: POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN NAMIBIA FORESHADOWS
CONTENTIOUS ELECTION

REF: A: WINDHOEK 0035

Classified By: Ambassador Dennise Mathieu per 1.5 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Namibia's general elections are approximately one year
away, but the campaign season is in full swing. After a
series of minor political confrontations during the Tobias
Hainyeko by-election (reftel),a violent attack on a Rally
for Democracy and Progress (RDP) rally by supporters of the
ruling Southwest Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) in
Outapi, a traditional SWAPO stronghold, has revealed a new,
more volatile and intolerant tone to Namibian politics. It
has also left many wondering if senior government officials
are willing to make it clear that political violence from any
quarter is unacceptable. Although previous Namibian
elections have been relatively peaceful, 2009 may not be if
SWAPO views the RDP as a real threat to its longtime hold on
power.

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Hibernating Politicians
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2. (SBU) In recent weeks, the political atmosphere in Namibia
has become increasingly charged. Acts of political
intimidation, which flared during the Tobias Hainyeko
by-election, continue to color the political scene. In
addition, the SWAPO Party Youth League (SPYL) has strongly
criticized cabinet members it accuses of being disloyal to
the party. In particular, Minister of Environment and
Tourism Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwa, Minister of Safety and
Security Dr. Nickey Iyambo, Minister of Works and Transport
Helmut Angula, and Minister of Defense Charles Namoloh have
been accused by the SPYL of "hibernating" as RDP supporters.
A number of political observers believe there is a
possibility that President Pohamba, despite having been named
SWAPO's flag bearer for the 2009 campaign, either may decide
not to run for a second term or may be replaced as the ruling
party's candidate by a special party congress. Some have
speculated that former President Sam Nujoma is trying behind
the scenes to arrange a scenario whereby his son, currently
the deputy Minister of Justice, becomes the presidential
candidate, but it is unclear how much support such a
possibility has within the party.

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Outapi
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3. (SBU) On November 23, eight supporters of the RDP and
several police officers were injured when SWAPO supporters
prevented the opposition party from holding a rally in
Outapi, the regional capital of Omusati, a traditional SWAPO
stronghold. SWAPO supporters blocked a main road leading to
Outapi until the police persuaded them to remove the
roadblock. The crowd reportedly shouted, "Omusati is not an
RDP region; it's a SWAPO region," and taunted the RDP members
to "go back to Oshana, Ohangwena and elsewhere where you
belong." Meanwhile, on another road leading to the rally, a
convoy of RDP vehicles escorted by police was blocked by a
second crowd of SWAPO members. The protesters, some of whom
were allegedly armed with guns and machetes, threw stones at
the police and RDP vehicles before pursuing the RDP in a
high-speed multi-vehicle chase some 50 kilometers out of
town, where the Oshana region police force eventually stopped
the SWAPO convoy.


4. (C) Immediately following the incident, questions arose as
to why the Outapi police had been out-numbered. Moreover,
reports swirled that the Omusati police commander was on
leave that weekend, despite the fact that he was aware of the
potentially contentious event. In a conversation with
Poloff, RDP organizers Libolly Haufiku and Norah Appolus
accused SWAPO of orchestrating the attack in advance, citing
the large number of people and vehicles assembled. While
suspicious of the absent police commander, they were
sympathetic with the plight of the police, remarking that
they showed no bias to either side, but simply tried to
maintain control of the situation.


5. (SBU) Also on November 23, in Windhoek's Greenwall Matonga
area, another opposition party, the newly-established All
People's Party (APP) held a rally that was disrupted by SWAPO
demonstrators. The SWAPO branch coordinator for that area
admitted to leading the protest, telling reporters that the
APP had failed to ask her permission before holding its
meeting. Police separated the two groups, and the APP
eventually went ahead with its rally.

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Provocation, not Condemnation
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6. (SBU) Members of the RDP and other opposition parties
expressed outrage over the Outapi incident. With the
exception of a statement to the media by Prime Minister
Angula and a public letter by SWAPO elder statesman Andimba
Toivo ya Toivo, in which he appealed for tolerance and
political maturity and urged party leaders to refrain from
demonizing the opposition, SWAPO leaders and senior
government officials were largely silent.


7. (C) In a December 5 conversation with Ambassador, Toivo ya
Toivo elaborated his position. While Namibia had been a star
at independence, he lamented that the political atmosphere
began to change in 2004. (Note: SWAPO's congress in 2004 was
notably contentious. End Note.) He claimed the SPYL and
party leaders are responsible for today's political
intolerance.


8. (SBU) Approached for comment on November 24 by the daily
"The Namibian," Prime Minister Angula reminded Namibians to
respect the Constitution, which enshrines the right of
peaceful political activity. He went on to say, "RDP is
organizing rallies wherever they seek publicity, and they do
it deliberately (holding rallies in certain areas). They
ferry people (to rallies) in cars from far away, and they
deliberately provoke. Maybe it is time people should ignore
them."


9. (SBU) On November 28, President Pohamba made his first
public comment regarding the Outapi rally. In an address to
SWAPO's central committee, he echoed the Prime Minister's
claim that party members were being provoked by "elements whoQ
call themselves democrats." Referring to an incident in
which a police officer had removed a SWAPO flag during the
Tobias Hainyeko by-elections, Pohamba said, "It is
unacceptable for a police officer to throw a flag of a
political party on the ground," calling it "the highest form
of provocation," which could result in violence. He did,
however, also call on political parties and the Namibian
people to respect the authority of the police and the
sanctity of the Constitution.


10. (SBU) It was not until December 3 that SWAPO Secretary
General and Minister of Justice Pendukeni Ivula-Ithana
accepted full responsibility for the events at Outapi,
stating that the violence took place "in the colors of
SWAPO," and therefore the party would accept responsibility.
She stressed to media outlets, however, that party leadership
had had nothing to do with the incidents. She also blamed
the press for misrepresenting and slandering SWAPO, arguing
it chose not to report on a letter by the Ministry of Safety
and Security to Pohamba about the incident. Major newspapers
responded by claiming they had never seen the letter. At the
press conference, Ivula-Ithana repeated the provocation
mantra, "We are fully aware of (the RDP's) agenda, which is
to intimidate and provoke our members in view of next year's
elections, to render the country ungovernable, and call for
the postponement of elections as they usually do."

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Blame Game
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11. (SBU) According to Ivula-Ithana, the aforementioned
police report stated there was a lack of communication
between the police and the RDP and charged the party with
failing to provide details such as the time and place of the
rally. It criticized both parties for ignoring police
instructions, and it warned that political violence, if
allowed to continue, could lead to chaos.

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Comment
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12. (C) The incidents in Outapi and Greenwall Matongo on the
heels of the Tobias Hainyeko by-elections represent a new
trend of confrontation and intolerance in Namibian politics.
Past elections, particularly that of 2004, were contentious,
but the scale and nature of the most recent events are of
concern. Despite the fact that SWAPO supporters reportedly
yelled ethnic epithets and played upon underlying tensions
between Ovambo ethnic sub-groups, the violence in Outapi was
not ethnic or racial in nature. Rather this confrontation
was about winning votes. SWAPO clearly feels threatened by
the RDP and the attention it is garnering. The RDP may
indeed be provoking SWAPO, but if it is to win seats in the
National Assembly, it must gain crucial support from the
northern part of the country. SWAPO's reaction to the
formation of the opposition party Congress of Democrats (COD)
in 1999 was not as aggressive. Further, the COD did not
campaign in the Omusati region and was not considered a real
threat. There is a strong possibility, however, that the RDP
could pull support from SWAPO in Omusati. On a positive
note, the opposition has praised police for working hard to
maintain order and for not favoring one side over another.


13. (C) As to whether SWAPO has lost control of its members,
it seems more likely that senior leadership has decided that
this a battle better fought by those in the trenches--
leaving regional and branch coordinators to defend their
districts. It is disappointing that the normally moderate
Pohamba has not spoken out forcefully about SWAPO's tactics,
but given some of the internal maneuvering within SWAPO over
the 2009 elections, he may be feeling pressure to espouse a
harder line than he normally would be comfortable with. End
Comment.


MATHIEU