AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OPPOSITION POLITICIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WINDHOEK 000266

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S AND INR
STATE PASS TO USAID


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR WA
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OPPOSITION POLITICIAN

Classified By: Ambassador Mathieu, for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

Summary
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1. (C) Ambassador Mathieu and Poloff met on August 27 with Congress
of Democrats (COD) Member of Parliament Nora Schimming-Chase.
Schimming-Chase predicted that the current leadership impasse between
factions of the COD would be resolved by November and the party would
be united going into the 2009 elections. Schimming-Chase did not
assess that the contest would be free and fair and stated that
opposition parties needed to coordinate their 2009 election
strategies to break SWAPO's absolute majority in Parliament.
Schimming-Chase, who also serves as the vice-chairperson of the
Southern African Development Community-Parliamentary Forum (SADC-PF),
noted that the organization will find it difficult to monitor
upcoming elections in Angola, Namibia, Swaziland and Zambia, as USAID
has frozen aid to the organization. The Member of Parliament noted
that tensions within SWAPO were evident, as party members accused one
another of having close ties to the opposition Rally for Democracy
and Progress (RDP). Schimming-Chase expressed concern over recent
rhetoric and actions from some SWAPO politicians, and the negative
impact on the political environment. End Summary


2. (U) Ambassador Mathieu and Poloff met on August 27 with prominent
independence activist and Member of Parliament from the opposition
Congress of Democrats (COD) Nora Schimming-Chase. Schimming-Chase
leads one of two factions vying for control of the COD following a
contested party congress in March 2007; the other faction is headed
by Parliamentarian Ben Ulenga.

Impasse Resolved by November?
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3. (C) Schimming-Chase predicted that the current impasse between
factions of the COD would be resolved through a party congress by
November and that the party would be united going into the 2009
elections. She noted that the leadership struggle between the two
factions had resulted in the party losing standing and respect in
Parliament, although she noted that support for the party on the
ground remained strong. She acknowledged, though, that the continued
infighting has the party's supporters anxious, especially with an
election slated for next year. The parliamentarian attributed much
of the party's support to the multi-ethnic character of the
organization, asserting that the COD was the only party in Namibia
not organized along ethnic lines. She declared that, in spite of the
recent tensions within the party, observers recognize the COD's
positive contributions to parliamentary debates.

Voter Irregularities Likely in 2009
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4. (C) Schimming-Chase was skeptical that the 2009 elections would
be free and fair. She noted that voting irregularities had occurred
in 2004, but pointed out that the COD could not afford to continue
fighting the contested results in court. The government, she said,
does not comply with SADC and African Union (AU) election standards
it has endorsed, as cast ballots in Namibia are not counted the same
day and results are not announced as they are received.


5. (C) Declaring that opposition parties would benefit from
coordinating their 2009 election strategies to break SWAPO's absolute
majority in Parliament, Schimming-Chase reported that the RDP had
approached the COD to discuss election-related cooperation. The
parliamentarian thought opposition parties could collaborate
particularly in pressing for greater transparency in the electoral
process and in ensuring an opposition election monitor presence at
every polling place in the country. Schimming-Chase encouraged the
U.S. to help train opposition election monitors, citing the positive
role played by well-trained election observers during Zimbabwe's most
recent election.

Africa Loses an Election Monitor
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6. (C) Schimming-Chase, who serves also as the vice-chairperson of
SADC-PF, told us the organization will likely not monitor Namibia's
election, as USAID has frozen the organization's funding. She stated
that SADC-PF members were working to resolve the issues that had
resulted in the freezing of the funds, and she anticipated that
senior SADC-PF officials may call an emergency meeting of the
executive to discuss the matter. The funding freeze has derailed the
organization's plans to monitor upcoming elections in Angola,
Swaziland, and Zambia, she said.



Tensions within SWAPO Evident
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7. (C) The Member of Parliament noted that tensions within SWAPO
were evident, as party members accuse one another of being RPD
sympathizers. She thought the RDP posed a serious challenge to
SWAPO's electoral dominance in the voter-rich north of the country.
She stated that the tensions within the ruling party were most
apparent on the floor of Parliament.


8. (C) Echoing the views of many of her peers, Schimming-Chase
expressed concern over SWAPO's recent undemocratic rhetoric and
actions. She expressed her view that troubling statements from some
senior SWAPO politicians were part of a broader strategy by the
ruling party to intimidate and harass opposition party members and
supporters, as party and government leaders did not chastise those
responsible.

Comment
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9. (U) Shimming-Chase, a veteran of Namibia's independence movement,
clearly believed that Namibia is at a critical political crossroads,
where the country could either continue to strengthen its democratic
institutions, or, alternatively, begin to move down a path toward
autocracy. Although unhappy with what she saw as a worsening
political environment, she was hopeful that opposition parties, with
the help of church groups that earlier played a significant and
positive role in Namibia's independence struggle, could help ensure
that the country moves down the former path rather than the latter.

MATHIEU