GAERC - POLISH VIEWS ON OCTOBER 13 EU FOREIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001188

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR AND AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EUN BO GC RS UZ ZI PL
SUBJECT: GAERC - POLISH VIEWS ON OCTOBER 13 EU FOREIGN
MINISTERS MEETING

REF: STATE 108064

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA European Correspondent Cyryl Kozaczewski
told us October 9 that while Belarusian elections were flawed
and there has been no significant improvement in terms of
democracy and human rights, Poland will support a temporary
suspension of the travel ban. The ban should be lifted, in
the GoP view, for most Belarusian officials, including
Lukashenka, but not those "with blood on their hands."
Poland plans to raise the need for more coordination between
the U.S. and EU on sanctions at the GAERC. Assuming Russia
withdraws its forces from "areas adjacent" to South Ossetia
and Abkhazia by October 10, Poland will press other Member
States to characterize the development as an important first
step, not complete fulfillment of Russian commitments.
Poland remains concerned about balancing Russia's growing
influence in Uzbekistan and plans to endorse a partial
relaxation of sanctions, to include lifting the travel ban
while maintaining the arms embargo. On Zimbabwe, Poland
supports maintaining sanctions until real change takes place.
In the meantime, the EU should continue to provide
humanitarian assistance. END SUMMARY.

BELARUS


2. (C) On Belarus, Kozaczeswski said there is strong
consensus among Member States that more EU engagement is
needed. Although the September 28 elections were flawed and
there has been no significant improvement in terms of
democracy and human rights, most Member States see other
"positive signs" -- e.g., release of political prisoners --
that merit a partial softening of sanctions. Kozaczewski
said Poland supports a six-month suspension of the travel ban
for most Belarusian officials -- including Lukashenka -- but
not for "those with blood on their hands." When poloff
stressed the importance of a measured response, Kozaczewski
argued that maintaining the visa ban on Lukashenka would be
"counterproductive" and might drive him closer to Moscow.
The goal is to reduce, not increase, Russian influence.


3. (C) GAERC conclusions will include a post-election
evaluation that identifies "areas for improvement" and will
outline steps the EU is willing to take in exchange for
improvements on human rights and democratization. The
conclusions will also recommend that the EU Troika meet with
Belarusian FM Martynov. Kozaczewski said Poland agrees that
there should be more coordination between the U.S. and EU on
sanctions and plans to raise this at the GAERC. (NOTE: DCM
also stressed the need for closer U.S.-EU coordination on
Belarus sanctions in an October 7 discussion with MFA
Political Director Witold Sobkow. END NOTE.)

GEORGIA


4. (C) Kozaczewski said Poland would stress respect for
Georgia's territorial integrity at the GAERC. In the event
Russia complies with the October 10 deadline on withdrawal
from "adjacent areas," Poland will press other EU Member
States to characterize the development as an important first
step, rather than as complete fulfillment of Russian
commitments. "We must do this calmly, without exuberance,"
he stated. Poland will press for language emphasizing the
EU's position that the EU Monitoring Mission covers all of
Georgia, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and calling
for Russian withdrawal to pre-August 7 positions. Poland
also plans to raise the October 8 ambush of EU monitors by
irregular forces. If such attacks occur repeatedly,
Kozaczewski said, the mission's mandate will have to be
adjusted to reflect reality. Kozaczewski said no final
decision had been made concerning Poland's contribution at
the October 15 donors conference.


5. (C) Kozaczewski said Poland views the EU's renewed focus
on its Eastern neighbors as a positive development, despite
the unfortunate factors that prompted the attention shift.
He pointed out the irony that the October 15 European Council
will focus primarily on Eastern Policy (Georgia, Moldova, and
the Polish-Swedish Eastern Partnership proposal),given the
French Presidency's initial focus on the Mediterranean. "It
seems reality caught up with the French," he added.

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UZBEKISTAN


6. (C) On Uzbekistan, Kozaczewski said the broader context of
EU engagement in Georgia and Belarus required the EU to
re-think its approach to Uzbekistan. With its new focus on
the eastern neighbors, the EU cannot engage selectively but
must look at the region as a whole. Poland believes Uzbek
authorities have displayed a willingness to engage in
dialogue. Kozaczewski said Poland remains concerned about
balancing Russia's growing influence in Uzbekistan and, as a
result, will endorse a partial relaxation of sanctions, to
include lifting the travel ban while maintaining the arms
embargo for another 12 months.

ZIMBABWE


7. (C) Kozaczewski said Poland welcomed the September 15
power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe, but stressed that the
agreement's implementation is far more important. To date,
the outcomes have not been satisfactory. Poland supports
maintaining sanctions until real change takes place. The
true test will be Tsvangiari's empowerment. In the meantime,
the EU should continue to provide humanitarian and other
financial support in order to promote stability. A minimum
level of engagement is needed to maintain influence over
Mugabe's behavior.

ASHE