CODEL LIEBERMAN URGES UNITED SUPPORT FOR GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WARSAW 001010

SIPDIS

EUR FOR JUDITH GARBER, EUR/CE FOR CLAIRE PIERANGELO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR ECON ENRG GG PL
SUBJECT: CODEL LIEBERMAN URGES UNITED SUPPORT FOR GEORGIA

Classified By: Ambassador Victor Ashe. Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Codel Lieberman met separately August 21
with Polish FM Sikorski and PM Tusk to express solidarity
over events in Georgia. FM Sikorski said Western Europeans
were starting to understand the nature of the Russian threat,
although he warned of Russian "purchases" of leading European
politicians. He called for moving NATO infrastructure
eastward to solidify Article V guarantees, and said Poland
would come to Ukraine's aid if Russia attacked. The Foreign
Minister sought assurances of bi-partisan U.S. support for
MD, and promised swift ratification if the U.S. Democratic
Party sends a positive signal. He urged a "surge" for
Afghanistan, and outlined plans for more EU involvement in
Afghan PRTs. PM Tusk said that although he was confident of
Polish ratification of the MD Agreement, he was less sure of
the Czech Republic. He called for full implementation of the
just-signed, bilateral Declaration on Strategic Cooperation.
Tusk also emphasized the political difficulties of supporting
U.S. global policies as long as Poland does not benefit from
the visa waiver program. The Prime Minister was concerned
that NATO was becoming a loose-knit political club, and urged
measures to make it a stronger military alliance. Tusk
concluded that Russia would continue to be an unreliable
partner into the future. END SUMMARY.

FM SIKORSKI CALLS FOR "SURGE" IN AFGHANISTAN


2. (C) Senator Lieberman expressed his condolences to
Foreign Minister Sikorski on behalf of the three Polish
soldiers killed by a mine in Afghanistan August 20. Sikorski
said ISAF forces need better patrol vehicles than Humvees.
In general, Sikorski said, the problem in Afghanistan is not
the number of NATO troops, but the caveats of many
contributing nations. There should be a push to remove
caveats at the next NATO summit, and perhaps even U.S.-German
parliamentary discussions on the subject. The U.S.
initiative to build up the Afghan National Army is
appropriate, but heavy police or gendarmerie are a greater
priority. Sikorski asked whether progress in Iraq might
provide an opportunity for a similar U.S. civil-military
"surge" in Afghanistan. Poland wants the EU to present the
incoming U.S. President with five EU-led PRT's, which would
allocate military and civilian assignments as appropriate
among participating countries. The EU has ample development
funding which could go to these PRT's. Senator Lieberman
agreed that a surge on the Rule-of-Law and economic fronts
would help end Afghanistan's status as a "narco-state," and
called for a "Plan Colombia"-style effort. Senator Graham
said that based on contacts with German parliamentarians,
removing German caveats appears a political impossibility at
this time.

REQUESTING BIPARTISAN U.S. SUPPORT FOR MISSILE DEFENSE


3. (C) Sikorski said perceived links between the Georgia
crisis and the BMDA signed August 20 in Warsaw posed both
risks and benefits. The Russians could claim the timing
showed MD is aimed against them, but the Poles are glad to
show that the U.S. and Poland are not cowed by the brutality
of the Russian campaign. The GoP had risked Russia's wrath
-- and braved major domestic political infighting -- to
conclude the BMDA, and would lose face if the incoming U.S.
administration backed away from the agreement. There was no
decision about ratification timing, but the FM said he could
promise swift ratification if the U.S. Democratic Party
provides an early sign of support. Senator Lieberman said
that Polish determination to move quickly on ratification
would remove a key argument used by opponents of MD funding:
namely, that Poland is not certain about MD. He undertook to
seek early Democratic support for MD in upcoming
Congressional authorizations. Senator Graham said MD funding
would be a sign that the U.S. will stand up to Russian
aggression in places like Georgia, and should be complemented
by major U.S. funding for Georgian economic and military
reconstruction.

GEORGIA, AND NATO PREPARATIONS FOR THE NEXT CHALLENGE


4. (C) Sikorski said it was fortunate the August 19 North
Atlantic Council did not discuss Georgia's request for a
Membership Action Plan (MAP),since some European skeptics
feel vindicated by Saakashvili's miscalculations during the
conflict with Russia. NATO was unable to do anything to stop
the Russian advance in Georgia, but must be prepared the next
time. Western Europeans are "starting to understand" the
Russian threat, but much needs to be done in order to
preserve NATO's character as a fighting organization rather
than a political club. If we are to admit Ukraine and
Georgia, then we will need to station equipment and

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infrastructure there, to make good on Article V guarantees.
NATO infrastructure is largely based in Germany, but Germany
faces no threat; the infrastructure should be moved eastward.
Sikorski praised ex-Secretary Rumsfeld's "centers of
excellence" initiatives, and suggested locating say, a center
for special forces in Poland. NATO needed to launch vigorous
training exercises, and to "get real" in its contingency
planning and intelligence assessments, which too often
downplayed the Russian threat. When asked, Sikorski said he
would support U.S. provision of anti-tank and anti-aircraft
weapons to Georgia, noting that Poland was glad it had
provided MANPADS to Georgia over vociferous State Department
objections.

STEPS TO COUNTER RUSSIAN BRIBES AND ENERGY PRESSURE


5. (C) Too often in the last century, Sikorski said, the
West did not believe tyrants would do what they said they
would do. Sikorski said he believes Putin's statements that
Russia will use energy as a weapon; that Russia will protect
its citizens and pipelines in other countries; and that he
considers Ukraine a "cobbled-together country" with six
million Russians. If Russia attacks Ukraine, it will create
a European crisis, because Poland will come to Ukraine's aide
-- the Poles "cannot and will not let Ukraine go down." The
West should develop the liquefied natural gas market, which
does not depend on pipelines. In addition, NATO should
create a Trans-Atlantic Energy Alliance to regulate Russian
investment in Western energy firms and demand reciprocal
access to the Russian energy sector. The Russians are
spending hundreds of millions of dollars "purchasing"
European politicians. A former Ukrainian prime minister is
being prosecuted abroad for corruption, and the West should
disclose what we know about other corrupt officials in
Ukraine, particularly those paid by Moscow. (EMBASSY
COMMENT: This appears to be a thinly veiled reference to
Prime Minister Timoshenko. In addition to earlier questions
about her financial probity, there have lately been rumors in
the Polish press that she received an enormous payment for
her silence on the Russian invasion of Georgia. END
COMMENT.) The Senators agreed that the USG should seek to
warn U.S. financial institutions about doing business with
illicit Russian companies.

CODEL CONSULTS WITH PM TUSK ABOUT RESPONSE TO GEORGIA


6. (C) During the Codel's meeting with the Prime Minister,
Senator Lieberman outlined steps to express solidarity with
Georgia against Russian aggression. He said the first
response should be to support Georgia with humanitarian aid
and economic assistance to rebuild infrastructure. The U.S.
and Allies should provide Georgia with anti-tank and
anti-aircraft self defense capability as deterrents against
future Russian actions. Lieberman said it was important to
hold Russia accountable, by denying membership in the WTO and
by at least temporarily reducing the G-8 into a G-7. He
would urge President Bush to withdraw the 1-2-3 civilian
nuclear agreement, which had been submitted to Congress for
ratification. Senator Graham added that with Russian
actions, the MD issue was fully joined, and that he and
Senator Lieberman would push for a resolution in Congress
expressing support for the just signed MD Agreement.

TUSK CONFIDENT OF POLISH MD RATIFICATION, LESS CONFIDENT OF
CZECH REPUBLIC


7. (C) The Georgia crisis had had no influence on Polish MD
negotiators, PM Tusk said, but a great impact on public
opinion, which underwent a "radical" change in recent days.
Because his government had been so deliberate in
negotiations, he could "one hundred percent" guarantee its
ratification in parliament, and foresaw only minor
difficulties with local officials at the proposed interceptor
site. He had talked with the Czech PM, and if the vote were
taken now in that country, it would be close. Poland and the
U.S. share a perception of strategic challenges that the
Czech Republic perhaps does not. Tusk was unsure how the
U.S. could influence the Czechs, when even the Prime Minister
and President from the same ruling party were divided on
issues such as Saakashvili's role in the Georgia crisis. The
Czech history of pacifism had to be taken into account. The
U.S. and Poland should proceed first with their own
ratifications, and then the Czech Republic would not feel
coerced.

PRIORITIES FOR NATO AND THE U.S.-POLAND BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP


8. (C) PM Tusk said that if MD goes forward, Poland had to
make sure that Article V of the NATO treaty would really
guarantee Polish security. This is not about money or giving

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something to Poland, but Poland wanted to make sure there
would be an immediate NATO response to a crisis on Polish
soil, something the Alliance was not currently in a position
to provide. NATO is becoming a loosely knit political
organization, and needs to develop real contingency plans to
move forward in the event of a crisis on Polish soil. He
urged full implementation of key elements of the just-signed
Declaration on Strategic Cooperation, particularly equipment
upgrades and additional training. Senator Graham outlined
Pentagon conversations about possibly reducing the size of
U.S. bases in Germany, and basing unaccompanied soldiers in
Poland. Tusk responded that he was "very" open to this move,
but said Poland preferred that soldiers bring their families
as well. He assured the Senators that Poland was more
hospitable than Germany. At the political level, Tusk asked
for U.S. support of Polish Eastern Policy in Ukraine and
Belarus.


9. (C) A lesser bilateral issue, according to Tusk, was
visas. Tusk said he had rejected calls in his own party to
tie MD negotiations to the visa issue. But he asked for
Poland to be treated like other countries. In his experience
Poles were no longer going to the U.S. to work illegally.
The problem, Tusk said, was that some Poles question Polish
participation in U.S. global politics when it takes so long
to get permission to visit the U.S. Senator Lieberman and
Graham both assured the PM of their support for Poland's
inclusion in the Visa Waiver Program. They spoke of the U.S.
domestic political realities, and said that changes in
technology of entry documents, as well as economic changes in
Poland would soon solve this problem.

RUSSIA FIVE TO TEN YEARS IN THE FUTURE


10. (C) When asked about the possibility of the U.S.
maintaining a strategic partnership with Russia in the longer
term, Tusk replied that like all Poles, he was contaminated
by his own experiences. When he first visited Putin in
Russia, and met with Lavrov and Putin, he had the feeling
that something was simply wrong, which leads him to believe
that Russia will remain an unpredictable partner. Just as it
was before the Revolution, Russian conduct is often driven by
emotion rather than civilizational commitments. Most
European observers of Russia were either fascinated or
fearful. Few understood the middle ground: to be determined,
but not hostile; and to act without agression but also
without fear. Tusk agreed with Senator Graham on the need to
send the right signal now. He said that with the wrong
signal, the next Russian targets would be the Crimea and the
Baltics.


11. (U) Codel Lieberman did not have an opportunity to
clear this message.

QUANRUD