RUSSIA, GEORGIA, GERMANY, LITHUANIA AND THE EU:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000708

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2018
TAGS: PREL XG GG RU LH
SUBJECT: RUSSIA, GEORGIA, GERMANY, LITHUANIA AND THE EU:
THREATS AND RESPONSES

REF: A. GILCHRIST - LEADER EMAIL 8/26/08

B. STATE 91894

Classified By: Ambassador John A. Cloud for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Russian Ambassador told the GOL August
27 that it would pay a price, including being subject to "not
ordinary measures," for its outspoken support for Georgia,
according to Lithuanian MFA U/S Zygimantas Pavilionis. He
also reported that FRG Chancellor Merkel, in her visit to
Lithuania the day before, suggested the EU host a summit in
Tbilisi for countries on Russia's borders as a sign of
solidarity; Pavilionis urged that VP Cheney attend if it
coincides with his visit to the region. Merkel told the
Lithuanians Russia still seeks to achieve three goals:
depose President Saakashvili, both split the EU and divide it
from the U.S. over Georgia, and undermine Ukraine. She said
the details of Georgian support, including MAP, still needed
to be weighed, but she was forward leaning. Russia, she
said, "had destroyed all the confidence it had built up in
the past twenty years." Pavilionis shared Lithuanian
thinking on possible EU responses to Russia, including
freezing many aspects of EU cooperation, targeting
individuals through bank account freezes, targeted visa bans
on the Belarus model, and other points of pressure. He
concluded that Lithuania feels threatened and asked us to
consider political-military consultations (bilaterally or
with the other Baltics),revising NATO threat assessments,
and U.S. support for NATO contingency planning. End Summary.

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RUSSIA: YOU WILL PAY A PRICE
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2. (C) Russian Ambassador to Lithuania Chkhikvadze demarched
Lithuanian FM Petras Vaitiekunas at 8 a.m. August 27 to
inform him that Lithuania will suffer "consequences" for its
support for Georgia. U/S Pavilionis, who also attended the
meeting, told DCM that Chkhikvadze said Russia is aware of
how active Lithuania has been in support of Georgia, but
should know that "Saakashvili's days are numbered," that
Russia will take "not ordinary measures" against Lithuania,
and it will have to pay for its behavior. He did not
elaborate what the measures might be. Pavilionis called it
an outrageous performance.


3. (C) Pavilionis said that, in light of these Russian
threats, Lithuania is looking for visible signs of support
from NATO and the U.S. DCM outlined recent public shows of
support, including the SOCOM visit August 20, the USS Elrod
visit August 24-27, and prospectively the USAFE commander's
September visit, the Presidential meeting September 29, and
the U.S. rotation of NATO air policing mission starting in
October, for which we hope to have a senior USG visitor.
Pavilionis said Lithuania sincerely appreciates all that the
U.S. is doing, but said it is now looking for NATO military
contingency planning as well, and encouraged more senior U.S.
visitors to Lithuania.

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WORKING WITH MERKEL AND THE EU
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4. (C) Pavilionis also described Chancellor Merkel's
meetings the evening before with President Adamkus and other
GOL officials. She told Adamkus she hoped to convince
President Sarkozy to organize (in addition to the September 1
Paris summit) a meeting in Tbilisi for EU states and other
regional states who may be threatened by Russia. She further
asked President Adamkus to lobby Sarkozy to support such a
meeting. Pavilionis said he hoped that, if scheduling would
allow it, VP Cheney would attend as well to show a united
U.S.-EU front in the most visible way possible.


5. (C) Merkel told Adamkus that Russia has three remaining
goals. The first is to get rid of Saakashvili, which means
that the West has to show solidarity with him "even if we
don't like him." A joint Sarkozy-Cheney visit to Tbilisi
would help do that. Second, Russia wants to divide the west
as much as possible, which makes both EU unity and U.S.-EU
coordination key. She said that the weak links in the EU are
Italy and Spain. Third, she said Russia wants to destabilize
Ukraine, so we have to think how we can convince Russia that
would be a mistake. Merkel said the West needs to consider
how we do that, and whether MAP is part of that (while being
frank that her coalition situation limited her ability to act
in the face of FM Steinmeir's opposition). Merkel concluded
that Russia had destroyed all the confidence that it had
built up in the West over the past twenty years.


6. (C) Merkel and Adamkus also agreed that something has

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happened internally in Moscow that caused a shift in the
forces of power. Medvedev is clearly weakened, they thought,
and this may possibly lead to Putin retaking the presidency.

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Lithuanian Menu of Responses to Russia
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7. (C) Pavilionis said that Lithuania at the September 1 EU
summit would, as suggested by Department (refs A and B),
support an EU mission to complement the OSCE monitoring
mission, and be willing to contribute to both. He also
described some of the ideas being discussed within the GOL as
possible responses to Russian actions, which the GOL will
float within the EU. The menu is not agreed but ideas
include, at one end, freezing ministerial participation in
the G8; suspending the PCA negotiations or, at the Avignon
Gymnich, supporting a Swedish proposal to examine in detail
the existing PCA and stop specific aspects of EU-Russian
cooperation, such as access to scientific or technical
cooperation, and dropping any mention of "strategic
partnership"; targeting individuals involved in the invasion,
including freezing bank accounts and a visa ban list;
freezing Russia's COE membership (for which there is
presumably a Greek precedent); changing the visa regime for
access to the Schengen area; or even more radical ideas like
military exercises in Georgia.
CLOUD