Bloggers, Officials React to Sanctions, Diplomatic Row

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000235

SIPDIS

AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ASEC CMGT BO
SUBJECT: Bloggers, Officials React to Sanctions, Diplomatic Row


Summary
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1. (SBU) Post has monitored the Belarusian public's reaction to
recent events in the country including Belneftekhim sanctions,
Belarus' recall of its Ambassador to the U.S., GOB demands for
American Embassy staff reductions and the resulting suspension of
some consular operations, and a spurious prime-time "expose" of an
alleged 10-person "spy ring" recruited and instructed by the U.S.
Embassy. The internet community actively debated and speculated on
possible repercussions of U.S. economic and EU extended travel
sanctions and blamed the GOB for the Embassy's reduction in consular
services. Most agreed that spy allegations against Embassy
personnel were unfounded. Independent experts concurred with
bloggers that GOB officials have little leverage over the U.S. other
than pressure on the Embassy, and voiced hopes that sanctions would
press the GOB to undertake steps toward democratization in the
future. A few officials overtly expressed indignation over
increased international pressure, though some dismissed the
sanctions as mere political posturing. End summary.

Bloggers Blame GOB for American Consular Services Suspension
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2. (U) The sanctions against Belneftekhim and GOB demands for U.S.
Embassy staff cuts received wide coverage and extensive comments on
the popular Belarusian internet news portal TUT.by and opposition
site Charter97.org. TUT.by bloggers particularly blamed the GOB for
its steps that led to the suspension of some consular services at
the Embassy. Common Belarusians expressed their outrage with a
"narrow circle of hidebound people banned from anywhere but Iran and
Honduras" whom they blamed for stopping common people from receiving
American visas in Minsk. They called the GOB "small people trying
to overcome their big [inferiority] complexes" struggling for "who
knows what and why," and suggested "as long as the goals [of the
fight] are unclear, they will always be in the right."


3. (U) Charter97.org forum participants pessimistically concurred
that they are used to suffering due to Aleksandr Lukashenko's
ambitions and seemed resigned to suffer from the USG's ambition to
spread democracy as well. Radio Liberty surveyed over 330 of its
website readers and concluded that 78 percent held the GOB
responsible for the temporary suspension of visa operations with
only eight percent blaming the USG, and three percent blaming the
Belarusian opposition. Nine percent of respondents claimed they
never wanted to travel to the U.S. anyway. Bloggers humorously
expressed compassion for the American diplomats who departed Belarus
and thus became itinerant workers and will miss out on such
treasures of Belarus as tours of the Stalin Line and the National
Library, the "taste of locally brewed beer," and who with their
departure would be forced to "hole up" in Hawaii.

Parity for All
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4. (U) Poking fun at the GOB's rationale for demanding staff cuts
at the Embassy -- the need for parity in the sizes of our missions
-- a majority of bloggers warned the U.S. Embassy of possible
further GOB demands based on the concepts of parity and equality.
Some ideas of possible demands included the following: "to even out
the populations" of Belarus and the U.S. so the GOB-controlled Youth
Union could expand its membership with American youth; "to reach
parity in salaries," so Belarusians would earn 10 times more; "to
reach parity in life expectancy" as the rate in Belarus remains 10
years lower than the U.S. rate; "to even mortgage rates," so common
Belarusians could afford cheaper housing; and "construction of
agricultural rural towns in the U.S. and introduction of
[government-controlled] golden shares at IBM and General Motors."


5. (U) Joking aside, TUT.by visitors also stressed the necessity
for the GOB to follow the U.S. example of democratic elections and
to allow citizens to freely express themselves and to exercise their
inalienable rights guaranteed by the Constitution. Internet readers
also called on the GOB to look at "the balance" of tourist,
business, and student trips between the two countries and try to
attract the same high number of Americans to Belarus.

A Fly or Two in the Ointment Of "Flawless" U.S.-Belarus Relations
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6. (U) A March 23 report shown on the Belarusian First National
Channel (BT) alleging that a U.S. diplomat headed a ten-man cabal of
local Embassy employees spying for the USG amused bloggers the most
and raised heated discussions in online forums. Most bloggers
called the expose yet another "fly in the ointment" of "wonderful"

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bilateral relations. Most jokingly agreed on the BT reporters'
"high level of professionalism," since they were able to uncover the
spies before even the BKGB could. A BKGB spokesperson confirmed the
incident two days after the report aired, alleging they did not
detain any "suspects." Bloggers warned Belarusians about possessing
the commonplace equipment purportedly used for intelligence
gathering: cameras, binoculars, and cell phones. Also, they
ironically noted the Belarusian employees involved had not been
detained because when "they swore in English," the BKGB took it for
"repenting." Many "concerned" forum participants suggested the GOB
should proceed with "removing" spy groups from Minsk as well as
entrepreneurs from the markets, beer from the kiosks, and local
computer networks from residential apartment buildings, and
questioned who would be "next in line" as a target of official
action.

How Many is Too Many For GOB Officials?
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7. (U) Senator Nikolay Cherginets, banned from travel to the U.S.
and EU, was one of the few high-level officials to comment overtly
on U.S. Embassy operations and forced staff reduction. In comments
to reporters, he maintained that the suspension of visa processing
was aimed "at pressuring Belarus and intensifying the crisis in
[bilateral] relations." In response to an Embassy statement that
its "resources are engaged in addressing other priorities,"
Cherginets expressed "nothing but surprise" and stated that there
should be no higher priority in a host country than "establishing
and developing relations" by means of "providing visa support." He
commended the demand for staff reduction and elaborated that
Belarusian diplomats based in the U.S. "neither instruct the local
opposition nor participate in antigovernment events" while the U.S.
Embassy "has too many officers who have nothing [else] to do here."
Cherginets wished the USG "sober times" and "calm rhetoric" for when
"the time for talks and discussions comes."

Officials Offended By EU Travel Ban Extension
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8. (U) Following the EU's one-year extension of its travel ban
April 7, a ban which Cherginets labeled "political provocation," the
senator emphasized that he never refused meetings requested by EU
officials because he understands that tangible "results may be
reached only through dialogue." According to Cherginets, any
sanctions show that counterparts "are not willing to establish
normal relations with Belarus." On a personal note, he asserted
that he "is not fond of vacationing in European countries" because
he "only gets tired there."


9. (U) Cherginets' colleague, state TV and Radio Broadcasting
Chairperson Senator Aleksandr Zimovskiy expressed resentment over
the fact that it was merely "low-level" EU Transport Ministers
endorsing the travel ban extension, whereas in the U.S. it was
President Bush who "personally" introduced the travel ban and asset
freeze sanctions against himself and other. He called this
"unacceptable."

Comment
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10. (SBU) Though an internet sample does not necessarily capture
the older, more conservative sector of society, based on post's
study of bloggers there seems to be little support among the
population for the GOB's recent steps, and few people believe
official media spin doctors. However, as long as the GOB is able to
manipulate the media and insulate itself from pressure from its
people, the regime is unlikely to change tack.

MOORE
LEADER