Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08VILNIUS1030
2008-12-08 05:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Vilnius
Cable title:  

BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - December 5, 2008

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO 
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DE RUEHVL #1030/01 3430526
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FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3144
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 001030 

AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - December 5, 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 001030

AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - December 5, 2008


1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
--------------

- Youth Leader Denied Readmission (para. 2)
- United Civic Party Members Briefly Detained (para. 3)
- Opposition Rallies Banned (para. 4)
- Brest Opposition Activists Fined (para. 5)
- Opposition Members Cleared of Bombing Charges (para. 6)
- Grodno Opposition Activists Detained at Border (para. 7)

Domestic Economy
--------------

- National Bank Helps the Country's Four Largest State-Owned Banks
(para. 8)
- Trade Ministry Recommends Reducing Non-Critical Imports (para. 9)
- Deputy Prime Minister Comments on the Country's Economy (para.
10)
- 2008 Foreign Debt "Insignificant" (para. 11)
- Belneftekhim Decreases Fuel Prices (para. 12)

Quote of the Week (para. 13)
--------------

--------------
Civil Society
--------------


2. Youth Leader Denied Readmission

On November 27, Belarusian Popular Front youth group leader Franak
Vyachorka was yet again denied readmission to the Belarus State
University after his expulsion in February 2008. Vyachorka noted
that the university administration suggested that he apply for
readmission after the winter exams. The army draft office also
informed Vyachorka that he could soon be removed from travel ban
lists following the dismissal of alleged draft evasion charges
against him.


3. United Civic Party Members Briefly Detained

Police briefly detained United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy Lebedko
and three associates in northwestern Belarus on December 2. The
activists were heading to a potential site for construction of a
nuclear power plant. The police searched Lebedko's vehicle and
seized over 1,000 copies of flyers calling upon the entrepreneurs
and small business owners to join protests and strikes across
Belarus in mid-December. In spite of the detention, the activists
were able to visit nearby towns and distribute the leaflets at local
markets.


4. Opposition Rallies Banned

Mozyr city authorities denied on December 2 local opposition
activist Pavel Nozdrya holding a rally to mark the 17th anniversary

of the collapse of the Soviet Union and bring communism to a
tribunal. On December 3, local authorities in Minsk, Pinsk, and
Kobrin also opposed Malady Front activists who wanted to stage
similar demonstrations. In a separate case December 2, city
authorities banned local human rights advocate Pavel Levinov from
holding demonstrations in central Vitebsk to celebrate the 60th
anniversary of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights December

10. The opposition representatives called bans "politically
motivated" and discriminatory. The activists maintained they would
appeal the bans.


5. Brest Opposition Activists Fined

On December 3, a Brest district court fined three local opposition
activists USD 32 each for staging an unsanctioned protest in
downtown Brest. Activist Zhanna Abramova and two associates
protested what they called Abramova's "illegal eviction" from an
apartment that she had inherited from her grandmother. Abramova
expressed her firm commitment to challenge her eviction in a higher
court.


6. Opposition Members Cleared of Bombing Charges

Right Alliance leader Yuriy Karetnikov, opposition activist Mikhail
Sheremet, and Young Democrats activist Aleksandr Sergeyenko informed
the media December 1 that the Prosecutor General's Office dropped
criminal charges against them in connection with the July 4, 2008
bomb explosion. The three activists were also notified that law
enforcement would lift travel bans imposed on them during
investigation.


VILNIUS 00001030 002 OF 002



7. Grodno Opposition Activists Detained at Border

On November 28, border guards detained and searched local human
rights lawyer Viktor Sazonov at the Grodno railway station and local
United Civil Party leaders Yuriy Istomin and Aleksandr Vasilevich at
the Polish border crossing for half-an-hour and an hour,
respectively. Officials released the activists without charges;
however, they gave no legitimate grounds for searching the
travelers' belongings.

--------------
Domestic Economy
--------------


8. National Bank Helps the Country's Four Largest State-Owned
Banks

According to the Presidential press service, Belarus' National Bank
Chairman Pyotr Prokopovich told Lukashenko on November 27 about
efforts to support the country's four largest state-owned banks.
USD 1.5 billion of central budget funds will be spent to increase
the banks' charter funds and secure their stable operations during
the global financial crisis. According to Prokopovich, many foreign
banks plan to support their subsidiaries in Belarus in 2009. He
also assured Lukashenka that, although the financial situation
outside Belarus influences Belarusian ruble, it will fall or grow in
2009 within limits set by the National Bank.


9. Trade Ministry Recommends Reducing Non-Critical Imports

Deputy Trade Minister Mikhail Sventitsky told journalists November
27 that the Ministry does not seek to ban imports of some food
products. It drafted the list, which includes beer, juices, mineral
water and some fruits and vegetables only to recommend importers to
refrain from importing them as domestic producers can fully satisfy
the demand. In turn, the saved hard currency should be spent wisely
on critical imports: energy resources, raw materials, etc. His
comment failed to clarify whether importers who disregard the
recommendation will or will not be held legally responsible.


10. Deputy Prime Minister Comments on the Country's Economy

Speaking to the Lower and Upper Houses of the parliament on November
28, Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Kobyakov made a few important
comments on the country's economy. He said the GOB expects 14.5
percent inflation in 2008 and blamed high energy prices on the world
market earlier this year. Kobyakov said Belarus supports transfer
to payments in Russian rubles in Belarus-Russia mutual trade. The
governments have yet to decide on the technicalities of the
transfer. He also believes Belarus has high chances of securing a
USD 2 billion loan in 2009 from the IMF. IMF representatives will
come to Belarus again for loan talks starting December 15. Finally,
although the global financial crisis is hitting Belarus' exporters
hard, Kobyakov argued that indices of industrial growth will be in
complete accordance with the yearly plan.


11. Belarus' 2008 Foreign Debt "Insignificant"

According to official statistics, Belarus' foreign debt decreased
1.4 percent in October to USD 2.2 billion. In January through
October the decrease was 5.3 percent. As of November 1, the ratio
of foreign debt to the GDP was 3.9 percent. In November the
country's foreign debt increased by another one billion USD as
Russia issued the first half of its loan to Belarus. This is still
below the limit of USD 6 billion stipulated in the country's budget.



12. Belneftekhim Decreases Fuel Prices

According to the media, petrochemical conglomerate Belneftekhim
reduced wholesale and retail prices on gasoline and diesel fuel by
10 percent. This is the first fuel price reduction in recent
history. It took the government two months to make the decision,
which raised considerable public ire.

--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------


13. In an interview with Interfax-West news agency Secretary of the
Central Election Commission Nikolay Lozovik said:

"OSCE observers vary their standards depending on the country where
they observe the elections. Something that is considered democratic
in Ukraine and Georgia is not democratic in Belarus and Russia."

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