SAGGING CONSERVATIVES SEEK TO RALLY FORCES; SOCIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001294

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2023
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: SAGGING CONSERVATIVES SEEK TO RALLY FORCES; SOCIAL
DEMOCRATS OPTIMISTIC IN STYRIA

REF: VIENNA 1145 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Econ/Pol Counselor Dean Yap. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary. Now trailing the Social Democrats (SPO) in
the polls, conservative OVP leadership and cadres rallied
Sept. 5 in Austria's second city, Graz, to launch formally
the final phase of the election campaign. OVP leader Wilhelm
Molterer told the faithful the party had to work harder and
emphasized the reliability-gap between the OVP's record and
the SPO's promises. He warned that, if the party does not
win, it faces years in opposition. Though Molterer was more
animated than usual, conversations before the rally with
party officials indicated little enthusiasm among party
supporters for fighting the election. In contrast, an SPO
official predicted the party would poll as well as it had in
2006 (34%),well ahead of current polls. End Summary.

The Conservatives: "The Principle of Hope"
--------------


2. (C) In a meeting with Emboff, state OVP party manager
Bernhard Rinner described an apathetic party structure in
Styria that made him personally pessimistic about the
election outcome. In contacts with the party's many mayors
in the state, he had frequently heard "I don't want to have
anything to do with this election." Much of this apathy
appears due to personal dislike of party leader Molterer,
whose cool, cerebral, and distant style (which Molterer
himself acknowledged in his speech later that day) is a
turn-off in Austria's chummy political culture. Moreover,
Molterer appears dull in contrast with the SPO's Werner
Faymann, whom Rinner (declining "charismatic") described as a
more appealing personality. The conservative Mayor of Graz,
Siegfried Nagl, acknowledged that the OVP has yet to overcome
tensions between state-level and federal-level party
organizations, which also damaged the party.


3. (C) Asked about campaign themes, Rinner noted that
personality played an increasing role in Austrian elections.
While at first glance that would seem to be a disadvantage
for the OVP this year, Rinner thought the party could score
with a message that emphasized Molterer's credibility and
reliability. Indeed, "promises kept" is the main theme of
OVP election ads -- contrasting that with the stream of
populist proposals coming from the SPO and Faymann's apparent
alliance with the editor of the mass-circulation populist
daily "Kronenzeitung." And at the end of the day, Rinner
said, "the principle of hope still applies."


4. (C) The election rally was held in a small hall; Rinner
said the choice was deliberate -- the OVP wanted to be sure
of a crowded venue for the cameras. As it was, the hall was
over-crowded, under-cooled, and under-provisioned with
chairs. The crowd cheered for arriving party dignitaries and
gave Molterer on his arrival sustained applause. Molterer
delivered his almost hour-long speech with abnormal vigor and
enthusiasm, drawing frequent cheers. He outlined various OVP
proposals, always returning to the themes of reliability and
trust. However, Emboff noticed many attendees whose
enthusiasm for the candidate was well-contained and comments
by attendees afterwards tended toward "fine" and "okay." In
the course of his speech, Molterer described the OVP as
facing the choice of winning or going into opposition.
Rinner had previously suggested that a period in opposition
could be good for the party. However, those attendees Emboff
spoke with afterwards seemed to prefer second place in
government to first place among the opposition parties.

Styrian Social Democrats Optimistic
--------------


5. (C) Styrian SPO party manager Anton Vukan was, in contrast
to Rinner, delighted with the energy and enthusiasm of his
party cadres. He ascribed the SPO's unity of purpose to one
thing: replacing Chancellor Gusenbauer with Faymann.
Gusenbauer, an intellectual, had never managed to win the
loyalty of the party faithful. Faymann, in contrast, had
real appeal within and beyond the party. Vukan described the
party's shift to favoring referenda on future EU treaties as
a necessary step closer to public views, as a secondary
factor in improving its chances in the election. Vukan
himself also serves as a small town mayor, and from his
contacts with voters and his colleagues in other towns, he
was quite optimistic. He predicted, in contrast to current
polls, that the SPO nationally could come close to the 34%
share of the vote it took in 2006.

The Odder End
--------------


6. (U) As it happened, an OVP-breakaway conservative populist

VIENNA 00001294 002 OF 002


Fritz Dinkhauser, chose to schedule a campaign rally at 2:00
in the afternoon in one of Graz's town squares. Emboff
observed the rally from a sidewalk table at a nearby
restaurant. While polls have shown Dinkhauser and his list
approaching the 4% hurdle necessary to win seats in
parliament, the rally suggested Dinkhauser is struggling in
Graz. Fewer than 30 citizens turned up to attend the rally;
they were outnumbered by the 30-40 persons (including sound
technicians and a hired band) who accompanied Dinkhauser to
the event. Neither OVP nor SPO contacts gave him a chance of
entering parliament.
Girard-diCarlo