AUSTRIAN YOUTUBE GENERATION VIEWS NATIONAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001146

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV AU

SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN YOUTUBE GENERATION VIEWS NATIONAL ELECTIONS

Summary
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1. Young voters will provide a critical boost for smaller parties
such as the Greens, the Liberal Forum, and, to a lesser extent, the
far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in Austria's September 28 national
elections. The two governing parties, the Social Democrats (SPO)
and the conservative People's Party (OVP),will gain the least from
young voters, as confidence in both has plummeted after the collapse
of the Grand Coalition. Major election themes for young voters will
mirror those of the general population, with priority issues being
internal security, inflation, employment, pensions, tax policy and
the social welfare system. Education is an area of additional
concern to young voters. The stance taken by young politicians on
issues like EU politics and military spending provide insight into
the direction that future Austrian politicians may pursue, with
pan-Europeanism and neutrality to remain core parts of the Austrian
identity. Despite the minimum voting age being lowered to 16 and an
additional 184,000 first-time voters expected, the youth vote in
Austria will not likely play a decisive role in the upcoming
election. Overall numbers are not large enough, a trend compounded
by predictions that many young voters will abstain from voting out
of protest against the Austrian government. The findings in this
report are based on a series of interviews with young politicians as
well as representatives from politically-engaged youth
organizations. End Summary.


New Voting Age of 16
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2. For the first time in a national election, Austrians can vote at
the age of sixteen, one of the most generous minimum age
requirements in the world. This will usher in an estimated 184,000
additional first-time voters. Sixteen has been the minimum age in a
few provincial elections, including Vienna in 2005 and Lower Austria
earlier this year. Contrary to fears that young voters would
support more extreme right- or left-wing parties, most young
Austrians voted in line with the general population. Participation
rates of young and first-time voters were also in line with the
general population, typically between 60 and 80 percent, relatively
high among European democracies. At the national level, this group
of young voters remains an unknown. Most experts agree that they
will be influenced by their parents, although to what degree remains
open to debate. Nonetheless, the relatively small size of this
voting group limits its ability to impact the election outcome.

Young Voters Less Engaged
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3. Political engagement of Austria's youth remains limited and, by
some measures, is decreasing. While Austria boasts several large
political youth organizations - the Socialist Youth with 63,000
members and the Young OVP with 100,000 members - most political
activity remains limited to existing members and membership has
stagnated since the 1980s. According to a study by the Center for
Youth Research in Vienna, young people have become less politically
active. In 1990, 47 percent of people ages 14 to 24 considered
themselves to be "very" or "somewhat" active; by 2006, this number
had dropped to 30 percent.


4. According political youth expert Bernhard Heinzlmaier, the
decreased political engagement reflects a growing skepticism among
Austrian youth about the country's politicians. Young people have
become disillusioned with politics as previous governments have
produced few concrete results that benefit young voters
(particularly evident with the current Grand Coalition).
Representatives from political youth organizations speculate that
this could lead to an increasing number of people who choose either
not to vote or give "protest votes" done with the sole purpose of
making coalition configurations difficult.

Emphasis on Education
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5. Education and socioeconomic background play a far greater role
than age in determining election issue priorities, particularly in
areas like immigration, tax policy, and social welfare. For adults
and young voters alike, key issues in the upcoming election will
include internal security, inflation, employment, tax policy and the
social welfare system. In addition, young voters will concentrate
on education policy, seeking improvements in apprenticeship and
training program opportunities and better alignment of certification
programs throughout the EU. As in the previous election, the
elimination of student fees is on the agenda for some parties (SPO
and the Greens),although this will remain difficult to implement in
light of recent government budget concerns.


6. Other areas of concern for Austria's youth include EU policy and
"peace" (anti-war) policy. EU policy is a fairly uncontroversial

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issue for young voters as most accept Austria's continued
participation in the EU, albeit with some reforms deemed necessary
(according to the SPO view in particular). Likewise, there is
nearly universal agreement by young politicians across all parties
that military spending should be reduced and allocated toward social
programs. Both issues provide insight into the direction that
future Austrian politicians might pursue, with pan-Europeanism and
neutrality to remain core parts of the Austrian identity.


7. More than with adult voters, political parties are appealing to
emotions and values to attract young voters. According to Tina
Tauss, president of the SPO-affiliate Young Generation, the large
number of undecided young voters means that the election campaign
will be intense, emotional, and personal. Both the SPO and the
Greens are running anti-racism campaigns in response to the rise of
anti-immigration sentiment and right-wing ideas embodied by the FPO.
The Greens are also using the theme of "justice" in their outreach
campaigns while the SPO will promote themes like "equality of
opportunity" and "solidarity." The Liberal Forum party will appeal
to young voters' affinity for independence. In contrast to the
other parties, the OVP has a more pragmatic agenda with an emphasis
on concrete issues and fewer abstract voting themes, according to
Young OVP member Sven Poellauer.

Low Youth Turnout Expected
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8. As levels of dissatisfaction with Austrian politics are at a
nearly all-time high, voting behavior is difficult to predict,
particularly for young voters. Dissatisfaction may drive young
voters toward protest votes (abstaining or voting for smaller
parties, regardless of political views) or more earnest
participation. Most young politicians believe that the first option
is more likely, particularly with students. Samir Al-Mobayyed from
the Austrian Higher Education Youth Council noted that the timing of
the elections, shortly before the beginning of the academic year,
means that participation rates for students may be lower than in
past years. This may impact parties that receive a higher share of
the vote from educated youth, particularly the Greens and the OVP,
but will not have dramatic consequences.

Smaller Parties Likely to Gain
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9. Smaller parties are expected to profit from the youth vote. The
Liberal Forum's more libertarian approach appeals to many young
voters, as does the Green party's emphasis on youth-friendly topics
like education, mobility, and environmental issues. Thomas
Geldmacher of the Greens feels that an additional strength is the
party's grassroots organizational structure, which has proven
effective in engaging young voters. Of the two right-wing parties,
the relatively small Future of Austria party (BZO) is not expected
to gain much from young voters while the more popular FPO is
expected to pick up votes, particularly from young voters with lower
levels of education.


10. The two governing parties are not likely to gain as much from
the youth vote. The SPO is expected to suffer the largest losses
among young voters. This is partly due to its failure to follow
through on campaign promises to young voters - most notably, the
abolishment of student university fees. The SPO has also struggled
to connect with young voters in recent years, as it is increasingly
seen as an aging party for blue collar workers. The OVP enjoys a
slightly higher status among young people but is still likely to be
affected by protest votes. It may also lose to parties like the
Greens and the Liberal Forum, which have the same voter base of
educated young people.