Austrian Elections: "Italianization" Ahead?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001099

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/AGS

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TAGS: PGOVAU
SUBJECT: Austrian Elections: "Italianization" Ahead?

Summary
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1. Less than two months before the September 28 national
parliamentary elections, two smaller parties, in addition to the
five parliamentary parties, are also entering the race, with some
chance of passing the 4% hurdle to enter parliament. The "List Fritz
Dinkhauser" is a spinoff from the conservative People's Party (OVP),
led by the Tyrolean Fritz Dinkhauser who scored a major success in
the Tyrolean elections in June. The Liberal Forum (LIF) was
represented in parliament from 1993 to 1999, after it split from the
rightwing Freedom Party (FPO) in 1993. July polls indicate that
35-40% of voters are still undecided. The coalition party Social
Democrats (SPO) and OVP are at 25 and 29%, respectively, in these
polls, both also somewhat suffering from internal squabbles. Among
upcoming themes for the election campaign are measures to fight
inflation, tax reform, nursing care for elderly, as well as
improving measures to deal with criminal illegal aliens. End
Summary.

New Parties - Dinkhauser
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2. On July 29, the conservative Tyrolean politician Fritz Dinkhauser
announced his "List Fritz Dinkhauser" will run nationwide in the
September 28 general election. Dinkhauser's party ran in the
Tyrolean elections in June, and received nearly 20% then.
Dinkhauser wants to attract disaffected protest voters.
Liberal Forum
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3. Former Liberal Forum (LIF) chairwoman Heide Schmidt announced on
July 25 that her party will compete in the September ballot, and
that she will be the top candidate. The LIF, which split from the
Freedom Party (FPO) after its rightward lurch in the '90s, was
represented in parliament until 1999, when it failed to clear the 4%
hurdle to enter the legislature. Schmidt stressed she wanted to
offer voters an alternative to prevent the inclusion of the FPO in
the next coalition government. LIF's program focuses on a liberal
economic course and human rights issues.

Coalition Parties
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4. The coalition parties - Social Democrats (SPO) and OVP - are
struggling to regain the confidence of voters. In the SPO,
designated party chairman and top candidate Werner Faymann is
attempting to establish himself as attractive and reliable
alternative to Chancellor Gusenbauer. The SPO will put up election
posters on August 2, displaying a picture of Faymann, carrying the
slogan "Enough Quarelling" - alluding to the bickering between the
coalition parties in the past one and a half-years. Faymann has
also attempted to mend fences with the SPO's labor wing by allowing
top trade unionists to run for parliament. Chancellor Gusenbauer
had tried to abolish such double functions. OVP Vice-Chancellor
Wilhelm Molterer is meanwhile seeking to motivate his party
functionaries to become active in the campaign, after several OVP
provincial leaders criticized Molterer's decision to call elections.
Molterer also presented the OVP's economic platform on July 31,
offering popular benefits to voters.

Opposition Parties
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5. The rightwing/populist FPO has so far announced that its
chairman Heinz-Christian Strache will be the party's top candidate.
The party is likely to be the main beneficiary of the OVP's call for
early elections. Due to its longstanding tradition as protest voter
party with an anti-immigration and anti-EU platform, it is likely to
attract most of the disgruntled voters disappointed with the major
parties' performance in the Grand Coalition government. The Greens
are presenting themselves as environmental, pro-European party with
a social conscience, and may be an alternative for SPO voters who
are unhappy with Faymann's somewhat EU-critical course. The FPO
spin-off BZO hopes to score with a new top candidate, after the
criminal conviction of current BZO leader Peter Westenthaler for
perjury and his suspended nine month prison sentence.

Themes
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6. So far, fighting inflation seem to be the main topic in the
election campaign. The coalition parties are trying to hand out
goodies: The OVP suggests an additional 13th month of child care
benefit per year, in addition to the 12 monthly 130-150 Euro
benefits per child. The SPO wants tax relief measures in 2009,
rather than 2010, which the OVP prefers. Both parties also want to
raise nursing care allowances for elderly. Some of these measures
could still be approved at a cabinet meeting in mid-August. Both
the SPO and OVP are seeking to gain profile vis-`-vis the FPO's
anti-immigration position, the OVP has also raised the issue of
criminal illegal aliens. Interior Minister Maria Fekter (OVP) has

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recently announced plans to speed up the deportation of criminal
illegal aliens by improving bilateral agreements in this area. SPO
Social Affairs Minister has said Austria should continue to bar
skilled workers from the new Eastern European EU countries from the
Austrian labor market as long as there are sufficient Austrian
skilled workers available.

Polls
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7. July polls indicate that 35 to 40 percent of voters are still
undecided. The major parties continue to poll well below their 2006
results: The OVP holds 29%, compared to 34% in 2006, the SPO 25%
(vice 35%). The opposition parties have risen in voter popularity:
the FPO is at 18% (11% in 06),the Greens 15% (11% in 06),and the
BZO 6% (4% in 06). Dinkhauser and LIF are estimated to share the
remaining 7%. The image of political parties and politicians is
currently at a record low.

Comment
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8. If current trends continue, the elections could result in major
blood-letting for the coalition parties, a highly fractured
parliament, and a very difficult coalition formation process. In
the remaining time until the general election, SPO and OVP may,
however, still recover somewhat, particularly the SPO with top
candidate Faymann and his excellent media connections, while the
smaller parties, particularly the newcomer Dinkhauser list, but also
the Liberal Forum and the BZO, could lose in attractiveness due to
their lack of a comprehensive program and a wide network of support
structures. GIRARD-DICARLO