LIBERAL PARTY BIDING ITS TIME ON ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L VANCOUVER 000164

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: LIBERAL PARTY BIDING ITS TIME ON ELECTIONS


CLASSIFIED BY: G. Kathleen Hill, Political/Economic Chief, US
Consulate Vancouver, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



Classified by: Pol/Econ Chief G. Kathleen Hill, Reason 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Pol/Econ Chief met with Liberal Party Federal Elections
Co-Chairman Mark Marissen to discuss the party's preparations
for possible elections. Marissen predicted a 50/50 chance the
party would call elections in the fall, but saw a more likely
scenario of waiting until the mandated October 19, 2009,
election date. For elections to come earlier a perfect alignment
would be necessary: 1. Liberals must feel certain they can win
at least a minority government position, and; 2. Conservatives
must believe they have the upper hand. For now, all signs point
to an extended period of status quo.


2. (C) Liberal leader Stephane Dion announced the first of their
key election-oriented proposals, a carbon tax initiative, on
July 19th (Ottawa reporting septel). Marissen stated they are
hoping to grab the upper hand on this important green issue, not
only taking the momentum from the Conservatives, but also
undercutting the New Democratic Party (NDP). Marissen said that
Dion would focus throughout the summer on pushing the plan in
areas of strategic importance to the party, but where a carbon
tax may be less well received, such as southwestern Ontario and
Atlantic Canada, but not necessarily Alberta, which Marissen
dismissed with a wave of his hands as a lost cause.


3. (C) The Liberals also plan to focus on social and values
issues as part of their campaign strategy. Marissen sees these
issues still resonating with Canadian voters and the Liberals
plan to hit hard on areas where Conservatives are seen as too
far right (gay rights, harsh criminal sentencing, overzealous
drug laws) or too indifferent (homelessness, healthcare). He
admitted that Dion does not like to campaign on values issues,
preferring to address more concrete policy questions, but noted
that he will do what is takes to lead the Party's program.


4. (C) Marissen sees the key Liberal target areas as the
suburban regions around the major urban centers. The party is
confident in holding on to their traditional base of support in
major urban areas and Ontario. Marissen noted that they need
approximately 25 additional seats to win a minority government
and will seek these gains in the suburban areas of Vancouver,
Toronto and Montreal. He also was surprisingly optimistic about
Dion's chances to woo back some voters in his native Quebec. He
likened it to a quarreling family; once the outsiders start
beating up on Dion, the family will rally around their native
son.


5. (C) Marissen stated the party slate is almost full with 220
candidates set. The party had a goal of 33% female candidates
and has already reached 35% but still does not have the ethnic
minority representation they would like to see. On the money
side, the Liberals are way behind the Conservatives in
fundraising. Marissen explained this was not an issue for the
actual campaign, as each party will have equal funding dictated
by federal campaign finance laws. But this really hurts the
party now, as the Conservatives are able to push their agenda
much more aggressively while the Liberals have to watch every
penny.


6. (C) As far as the conduct of a campaign, the Liberals are
much more decentralized than the Conservatives. They will have
a war room in Ottawa, but it will be much smaller and the focus
will be on regional campaign war rooms. In the last election
Marissen ran the BC war room for the Liberals. He noted they
produced their own ads and focused on campaign issues of
relevance to their region. He expects to see a similar
situation for the next election, with mini-war rooms in Atlantic
Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba/Saskatchewan and BC (with
again, a notable absence of Alberta).


7. (C) Comment: Marissen is a Dion man with an almost idealistic
view of his leader. He extols Dion's courage and tenacity, as
evidence by his support of the 2000 Clarity Act, even in the
face of death threats from his fellow Quebecois, because it was
best for the nation. This selfless, patriotic image of Dion is
the image Marissen hopes he can help convey to the Canadian
public. It remains to be seen, however, whether Dion himself
can live up to the image.

LUKENS