AMBASSADOR KHALILZAD'S OCT 13 MEETING WITH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000937

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR KHALILZAD'S OCT 13 MEETING WITH
AFGHANISTAN SRSG EIDE

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (S) Summary: SRSG for Afghanistan Kai Eide outlined to
Ambassador Khalilzad a complex tapestry of opportunities and
solutions for Afghanistan's tenuous situation, emphasizing
the need to act now to shift the balance in our favor. He
said that the October 11 cabinet re-shuffling by Afghanistan
President Karzai strengthened Afghanistan-Pakistan bilateral
ties, and the mild lull in violence provided by winter set
the stage for achieving our objectives. He said the
international community must match these opportunities by
pushing forward with a concurrent "political surge," improved
donor coordination, elections support, and progress on
regional reconciliation efforts. Eide noted however, that
the bureaucratic UN hiring system "kept him up at night" and
significantly diminished UNAMA's ability to achieve its
expanded mandate. Ambassador Khalilzad agreed that the new
cabinet and change in Pakistan and Afghanistan were positive
and told Eide that the U.S. would try to assist with
bureaucratic bottlenecks posed by the United Nations. End
Summary.

Cabinet reshuffling as window of opportunity
--------------


2. (S) In a meeting October 13 UN Special Representative for
the Secretary General for Afghanistan Kai Eide described to
Ambassador Khalilzad the long process leading to the recent
Afghan government cabinet reshuffle, saying he spoke every
week for five weeks to President Karzai. Noting Karzai's
openness to dialogue, Eide added that the change in
government was not only necessary but overdue, and in
particular credited the appointment of Mohammad Atmar as the
new Minister of Interior. He said that Atmar's new position
would allow him to reinforce and support his close friendship
with General Director for Local Governance Ghulam Jelani
Popal, adding a positive dynamic to the Afghan government's
ability to function. Ambassador Khalilzad agreed, noting
similar harmony has also been established between the
Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development, as the new
Agriculture Minister previously served as Deputy Minister of
Rural Development. Eide stressed that the re-shuffle opened
a window of opportunity to move forward now.


3. (S) Ambassador Khalilzad expressed his concern about the
Afghan government's situation, noting that corruption,
decline in support for the government from the Afghan
population, the heightened sense of insecurity, and capital
flight all negatively impacted the government's ability to
achieve progress. Eide agreed that the population lacked
confidence both in the Afghan government and the civilian and
military components of the international community, but
stressed their attitude and the situation could both be
turned around between now and spring. He said that the
winter would not reduce levels of fighting to the extent seen
previously, but that a lull in the violence is expected,
presenting an opportunity to capitalize on the recent
positive shifts in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations and the
newly formed cabinet.

Afghanistan-Pakistan relations critical
--------------


4. (S) Eide said that Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have
taken a notable turn for the better, and efforts at dialogue
must be supported, with the international community remaining
firm and effective in its support of their bilateral talks.
Ambassador Khalilzad responded that a strategy must be hashed
out that takes advantage of the opportunity provided by the
election of President Zardari, including finding a role for
the UN to support the dialogue. Eide agreed, noting he had
visited Pakistan in May when there was a reluctance to move
forward, and that he needed to return again soon to take
advantage of the opportunity posed by Zardari's election.


5. (S) Eide stressed that Pakistan has a critical role in
reducing the terrorist threat and moving forward in
Afghanistan. For the international community to build upon
this new opportunity provided by Zardari's presidency, Eide
offered, we must further strengthen the Pakistani Army and
support Afghanistan-Pakistan bilateral dialogue, while
avoiding upsetting the local Pakistani population. Eide
added that the newly created Friends of Pakistan could be
instrumental in supporting the regional players in fighting
terrorism along the Afghanistan Pakistan border. Ambassador
Khalilzad noted that the next meeting of the Friends of
Pakistan is scheduled in a few weeks in the United Arab
Emirates.

International community coordination key
--------------

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6. (S) Eide lamented the "province-specific mentality" of
donor countries, where donors focus piecemeal funds and
efforts to achieve their narrow provincial goals to the
detriment of the larger situation. Individual donor agendas
cause delay, he said, and a unified, comprehensive approach
to solving Afghanistan's problems is the key to supporting
Afghanistan's efforts to turn the situation around. Eide
said that Popal had asked back in June for the discussion to
stop and implementation to begin, to no avail. Eide
concluded that he hoped that the recent meeting UNAMA
conducted with key donors had clarified concerns and that
failed donor coordination was a thing of the past. Eide
added that Karzai had complained to him about the US not
assisting Popal, saying the US has not provided him the funds
he needs to do his job. Eide noted that not only does the
international community quarrel amongst itself, but that it
requires Popal to negotiate with each donor government
individually, which is wrong and a s
ystem we must move away from. By developing a standardized
agreement, the international community would reduce the
burden on Popal and increase its effectivelness.

Elections and reconciliation opportunities
--------------


7. (S) Ambassador Khalilzad told Eide that Karzai expressed
pessimism about holding elections in 2009, in particular
lamenting the situation in Helmand province where the central
government controls only three districts. Ambassador
Khalilzad said he told Karzai that not holding elections
would cause a crisis of legitimacy and could limit
international support for Afghanistan in the future.
Ambassador Khalilzad brought up the possibility of holding a
Bonn II or another Loya Jirga to hash out the political
process if elections are not feasible. Eide said he had
noted the same problems, however he stressed that Karzai
needs to stop talking about not holding elections, as his
pessimism could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Eide also
suggested that the Loya Jirga in its current configuration
would not helpful, and mused that even if elections weren't
possible, a political process leading to some sort of
"political event" which recognized consensus and brought
legitimacy, could end the conflict.


8. (S) Eide said the political and military processes on
their current course will not lead to sustainable results.
If we want relevant results we have to talk to those who are
relevant, those who are on the ground, he stressed, driving
the situation. Eide added however that discussions now could
provoke disarray, and give the Taliban and al-Qaeda the
appearance of holding the upper hand. The pessimistic
atmosphere must shift to optimism, Eide argued, in order to
avoid perceptions that the Afghan government agreed to
negotiations because of Taliban successes on the battlefield.
Negotiations must appear to be on the government of
Afghanistan's terms, Eide said, adding that discussions were
still a long way ahead, and first steps include identifying a
useful process and determining who to talk with and who they
represent. Ambassador Khalilzad said that identifying the
interlocutors who helped organize the successful September 21
Peace Day could be an important step forward.

UN bureaucracy keeps Eide up at night...
--------------


9. (S) Appearing visibly frustrated, Eide described his
difficulties working within the UN and its cumbersome hiring
process. He said he wakes up in the middle of night, not
because of the situation in Afghanistan but due to his
inability to fill key positions. The UN, he complained, did
not help him overcome challenges; rather it placed hurdles in
front of him to leap over. He gave the example of attempting
to hire an agricultural advisor to work with the newly
appointed Minister of Agriculture in addressing Afghanistan's
serious agricultural difficulties. He described how Canada
had identified an excellent candidate and even offered to pay
his salary. Yet the UN hiring system brought that effort to
a halt, he said, and exemplified the delays in hiring staff
that is undermining UNAMA's ability to fulfill its mandate.
He also brought up rumors he had heard about taking away the
special allowance given to UN employees in Afghanistan,
noting that its removal would have a serious, negative,
impact on morale and would further complicate his efforts to
hire and retain qualified personnel. Ambassador Khalilzad
assured him that we would work to ensure the special
incentive remained in place.
Khalilzad