CFE/JCG: RUSSIA CONFIRMS WILL NOT PROVIDE ANNUAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 USOSCE 000286

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM,
NSC FOR HAYES, JCS FOR J5/NORWOOD/CAMPBELL,
OSD FOR ISA/PERENYI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2018
TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL
SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: RUSSIA CONFIRMS WILL NOT PROVIDE ANNUAL
DATA; NEXT JCG SESSION NOT POSTPONED

REF: A. STATE 124598

B. USOSCE 00278

Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate Hugh Neighbour,
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: The 25 November plenary adopted a
decision that ends the present JCG session on 16 December and
sets the first plenary of the next session on 20 January.
The U.S. joined consensus, but expressed disappointment that
the start of the next JCG session could not be delayed
despite a lack of substantive JCG meetings. On the margins
of the JCG, Russia's chief delegate confirmed that Russia
would not participate in the December annual data exchange,
but like last year, would only provide aggregated data in CFE
categories. Meanwhile, Allies in Vienna are planning to
deliver a joint statement at the 16 December JCG to express
regret over Russia's expected failure to complete the
required information exchange this year and to reaffirm their
commitment to CFE. End Summary.

Next JCG Session Begins January 20, i.e., as "normal"
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2. (SBU) The Joint Consultative Group (JCG) met on November
25 under the Chairmanship of Russia. The draft decision on
the duration of the present session was adopted
(JCG.DD/3/08). The decision sets the last meeting of the
present session on December 16. The first meeting of the
next session will be on January 20. The U.S. (Neighbour)
joined consensus on the decision, but expressed U.S.
disappointment (Ref a) that the idea of delaying the start of
the next JCG session was not seriously considered. Neighbour
noted that while the U.S. and others have used the JCG this
year to highlight instances of Russian noncompliance, other
discussions concerning actual CFE implementation have been
rare.


3. (SBU) The U.S. (Neighbour) also expressed the hope that
incoming JCG Chairmen will give due consideration to ensuring
that JCG meetings are scheduled only when required for
meaningful discussion of CFE issues. Work to be done should
inform the group how frequently it should schedule JCG
meetings. Neighbour stressed that JCG meetings should not be
scheduled and convened "simply as pro forma calendar
fillers," that Chairmen should consider adjustments to the
indicative schedule as appropriate during the session.

Russia to Raise Role of JCG on 9 December
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4. (SBU) Russia (Ulyanov) said that the JCG should be engaged
in more substantive discussions and that, ultimately, this
depended on the U.S. In the absence of "political will," he
commented that JCG meetings would continue to be quick
meetings, simply "marking time" and "reading off agendas."
Ulyanov also suggested that we think of how the JCG can play
a role in "saving CFE." He said Russia will bring up this
issue on 9 December and urged other delegations to express
their views.


5. (SBU) Ulyanov said States Parties should try at least to
come up with the "lowest common denominator" for discussion
in the JCG. He commented that another possible topic for the
9 December JCG could be the idea of "fragmentation," or
"separating out" parts of the Parallel Actions Package for
detailed work. Ulyanov stressed that Russia considered
nothing to be agreed until all was agreed, and so at the same
time was "categorically opposed" to breaking up the Parallel
Actions Package. Obviously referring to the U.S.
intervention, he warned that by holding fewer JCG meetings,
States Parties might send a "bad political sign" that we have
in fact "buried CFE."


6. (C) Comment: USDel expects that Ulyanov's pitch will be
the same as we heard in Fall 2007, on the margins of the

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February 2008 NRC-ACE, and again in Vienna later that spring.
Inter alia, that the JCG should hold substantive discussions
on parts of the Parallel Actions Package, including a
definition of "substantial combat forces" and terms for
accession to A/CFE. These would be plugged in to the
Parallel Actions Package as each was completed. Quad Allies
are already primed to join the USDel in rejecting Russia's
approach. End comment.

Russian Comments to USDel -- Only Aggregate Data
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7. (C) In a brief meeting after the JCG with USDel
(Neighbour),Ulyanov again urged the U.S. to provide its view
of why Russia's suspension is not provided for by the &CFE
Treaty or customary international law," and invited the U.S.
to do so soon, including while Russia was in the Chair.
Russia would raise this issue again in the plenary. (Note:
USDel has requested Ref b cleared language to refute Russia's
bogus contentions. End note.)


8. (C) Turning to the next JCG, Ulyanov said he will make the
point that the JCG should assume a substantive role to "help
solve the CFE impasse." He asserted that the Fried/Antonov
channel would demand work on "details to support their work."
These would need to be fleshed out elsewhere, such as in
Vienna. Ulyanov also was eager to know how Georgia would be
incorporated into U.S. proposals around the Istanbul
commitments and when the U.S. would be ready to reactivate
the Fried-Antonov channel. Neighbour declined to speculate.


9. (C) Ulyanov also commented that there were two reasons why
Russia declined to agree to cancel the November 4 and 11
JCGs. The first reason was that Moscow might interpret
missing two meetings in a row as "a lack of seriousness by
all parties." The second, which he indicated with a smile,
was that he believed "some delegations" were trying to delay
Russia's chairmanship until 2009. Curiously to USDel, he
said, that "the Europeans" had been "disingenuous" on this
question, but that the U.S. had played a "correct role."


10. (C) Ulyanov also expressed interest in the 21 November
HLTF. USDel (Neighbour) replied that the meeting showed, as
would be expected, that Allies are unified and will continue
to observe all CFE Treaty obligations. Russia should look
for details in CFE language in the upcoming NATO Ministerial
communique. USDel urged Russia to resume CFE implementation,
including providing data consistent with Russia's Treaty
obligations, such as in December's data exchange. Ulyanov
confirmed in reply that that Russia would not/not participate
in the data exchange, but would (like last year) provide a
one page aggregate of information of its holdings in CFE
categories.

Moldova Will Fully Participate in Date Exchange
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11. (SBU) Informally the Moldovan delegate (Cuc) told USDel
(Neighbour) that Moldova intended to fully participate in
this year's data exchange as required by CFE.

JCG-T at Helsinki
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12. (C) Norway (Schroeder) as Chair of the next JCG-T has
already drafted language for Allies' review for the use on 16
December in a joint statement. Discussion will continue at
Helsinki. Schroeder has appropriately included the entire
text on CFE from the upcoming NATO ministerial communique.
As directed by the HLTF, he has also proposed a paragraph to
address Russia's expected non-compliance on the annual data
exchange. Schroeder has circulated this draft joint
statement to NATO Allies, along with an agenda for the JCG-T
meeting on 3 December on the margins of the Helsinki
Ministerial. (Note: Schroeder says his para on the data
exchange is directly lifted from U.S. language on this issue

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last year. End note.)

Next Meeting
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13. (U) The next JCG Plenary will be on December 9 under the
Chairmanship of Russia. The next JCG-T will be on December
3, chaired by Norway.
FINLEY