CFE/JCG: JUNE 17, 2008 PLENARY - RUSSIA AWAITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L USOSCE 000163

SIPDIS

STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM
NSC FOR DOWLEY
JCS FOR J5 NORWOOD
OSD FOR ISA (PERENYI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2012
TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL
SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: JUNE 17, 2008 PLENARY - RUSSIA AWAITS
"ACTIVE" NEGOTIATIONS, ALLIES CALL FOR OFFICIAL RUSSIAN
RESPONSE


Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate Hugh Neighbour,
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary. During the June 17 JCG Plenary under
Kazakh Chairmanship, Turkey (Begec),supported by the U.S.,
Germany, the UK and Netherlands, raised the issue of Russia's
latest inspection refusal. Russia (Solomenko) underscored
there was no need to offer any explanations as they are well
known and justified, but alleged lack of bilateral and
multilateral discussions aimed at resolving the impasse.
Allies retorted that it is Russia who has failed to respond
to date to the serious proposals Allies laid out in the March
28 NAC Statement and - at the most senior levels - supported
in the Bucharest Communique. Following the JCG, the Treaty
Operation and Implementation (TOI) Group met to nominate a
new chair for JCG final approval. At the June 16 JCG-T,
Germany (Richter) informed Allies of his intent to provide a
presentation on the nature of the NAC Statement proposal and
related CFE terminology to the JCG sometime in July, but only
after first previewing with Allies well in advance.


2. (C) In bilateral discussions with Allies, Russian Chief
Arms Control Delegate Mikhail Ulyanov continues to push for
JCG discussions of elements of the parallel actions package
alleging lack of progress in the U.S.-Russia bilateral
channel and quietly telling Allies that they do not have the
"complete" version of the package. Intent on initiating
"technical" discussions in Vienna, Ulyanov is promoting a
Russian foreign minister-level approach to the U.S. to jump
start the process. End Summary.

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JCG PLENARY - WHO IS WAITING ON WHOM?
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3. (SBU) At the June 17 JCG Plenary chaired by Kazakhstan,
Turkey (Begec) directed the JCG's attention to Russia's
refusal of a Turkish CFE inspection notification for 16-20
June and recalled Turkey's Note Verbale which indicated
Russia's "suspension" was not legitimate. In support of
Turkey, the U.S. (Neighbour) emphasized its deep regret over
Russia's continuing "suspension," which has no basis in the
Treaty or customary international law and does not indicate
interest on the part of Russia to work with its Treaty
partners to resolve the current impasse. Recalling the March
28 NAC Statement on CFE and paragraph 42 of the Bucharest
Summit Communique, Neighbour urged Russia to resume Treaty
implementation and to work with concerned States Parties on
the basis of the parallel actions package.


4. (SBU) Russian CFE Expert (Solomenko),substituting for
Chief Arms Control Delegate Ulyanov for the third week in a
row, reminded all of Russia's December 12 suspension noting
that it was fully justified and there was no reason to repeat
Russia's argumentation. Solomenko then took the opportunity
to take a direct jab at the U.S. regarding the "active" pace
of the bilateral process while noting that Russia stands
ready to discuss issues bilaterally and at the JCG. He
remarked that the insistence of the Alliance in holding
general positions and refusing to engage in dialogue in the
JCG results in holding back progress. Solomenko appealed to
his Western colleagues to step up negotiations.


5. (SBU) Germany (Richter),the UK (Gare) and the
Netherlands (Kleinjan) each took the floor to echo the
concerns raised by Turkey and the U.S. and to redirect blame
at the Russian Federation for not having yet responded to
Allied proposals. Richter underscored that NATO had made a
proposal to overcome current constraints and achieve
ratification of the adapted CFE Treaty through the March 28
NAC Statement. This proposal, supported by the Heads of
State/Government of 26 States in paragraph 42 of the
Bucharest Communique, calls for a commensurate official reply
on the part of Russia.

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JCG TOI GETS A NEW CHAIR


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6. (SBU) The Treaty Operation and Implementation (TOI)
Group Chairman (Fardellotti, Italy) convened the TOI
primarily to approve his nomination for the next TOI Chair
(Linteau, Canada) in the interest of maintaining continuity
of the working groups. Germany, the U.S., Italy Portugal,
the UK, Greece, France, Spain and finally Russia voiced
support for the nomination which is now distributed as
JCG.DD/2/08.

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JCG-T PLUS 4 - GERMANY PLANNING ANOTHER JCG PRESENTATION
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7. (SBU) At the 14 January JCG-T plus 4, the chair (Richter,
Germany) reiterated concerns with the possibility of facing a
year-long stalemate as each side waited for the other to
respond and noted a change in Russia's position in the short
term was unlikely due to the recent presidential election.
Still pushing for some measure of substantive dialogue in the
JCG, Richter noted that Germany was working on a presentation
on the nature of the NAC Statement proposal that would draw
conclusions from the CFE Treaty text with the intent of
clarifying terminology. Richter suggested the need to
highlight that use of the term "stationing" involved Treaty
Limited Equipment (TLE) and not infrastructure, as well as to
explain the differences between substantial combat forces,
temporary deployments, exceptional deployments and permanent
stationing. He indicated he did not intend to present this
briefing to the JCG until after the July 1-2 ASRC and
promised to preview it at next week's JCG-T with ample time
for Allies to comment. The U.S. and UK each noted
appreciation for the opportunity to preview, emphasizing the
need for sufficient time.


8. (SBU) Germany also alerted the group that Ulyanov would
not be at the JCG the following day, offering a repeat of the
"preoccupation with Georgia" excuse and adding that Alexander
Ivanov of the Russian del had fallen ill and would be
returning to Moscow on June 17. (Comment. On the margins of
the JCG, a Russian del rep confirmed to U.S. del that Ivanov
was returning to Moscow due to a liver-related illness, but
this was unrelated to Ulyanov's absence which was a direct
result of his perceived lack of progress and substantive
discussion in the JCG. End comment)


9. (SBU) During a lunch hosted by new TOI Chair Linteau, in
response to a question, Solomenko stated that the new Treaty
proposed by Russian President Medvedev is not intended to
replace CFE.

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Russian Efforts to Drive Wedges and Split Package
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10. (C) Several Allies (including UK, TR, RO) have told USDel
that Russian Chief Arms Control Delegate Mikhail Ulyanov has
quietly been saying to them that the U.S. isn't interested in
talking, alleging the U.S. cannot negotiate seriously due to
the U.S. election cycle. The RF then asks our Allies if they
have the "latest, complete" copy of the parallel actions
package -- most Allies only have the version distributed in
Madrid, which updated the original version distributed in Bad
Saarow. A charge the Russians cite to show the U.S. is not
serious is the number of bilateral meetings since Madrid and
the U.S. proposal for a short, informal Fried-Antonov meeting
in Stockholm. (Comment: A number of Allies (led by Germany)
seem privately sympathetic to this Russian argument. End
comment.)


11. (C) Ulyanov wants to disaggregate the parallel actions
package and sow disunity among the Allies over "technical"
discussions in Vienna on elements of the package (e.g.,
"substantial combat forces"). He told the USDel (Neighbour)
on June 18 that he was more determined than ever to bring
parts of the package to Vienna. Neighbour replied that


NATO's position was clear, including keeping the parallel
actions package intact, and explained why Vienna was a very
inappropriate venue. Russia should reply to the generous
offer by NATO states detailed in the 28 March NAC Statement
and the Bucharest summit declaration. Ulyanov said he would
seek to get Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to approach the
Secretary to agree to bilateral U.S.-Russia "technical" talks
in Vienna as a means to break the impasse and "not waste more
time." (Comment: Ulyanov did not appear fully confident he
could get a minister-level approach to the U.S. on this and
hinted at professional rivalry between him and MFA Director
for Disarmament and Arms Control Anatoliy Antonov.)


12. (U) The next JCG Plenary, to be chaired by Luxembourg,
will take place on Friday, June 27 due to the June 24 HLTF
meeting in Brussels. The JCG will be preceded by a JCG-T on
the same day. Greece has already informed Allies that it
will raise Russia's recent refusal of a CFE inspection by
Greece.
LAEUCHLI