CFE/JCG: JUNE 10, 2008 PLENARY AND RELATED MEETINGS

UNCLAS USOSCE 000160

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM
NSC FOR DOWLEY
JCS FOR J5 NORWOOD, COL SMITH
OSD FOR ISA (PERENYI)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL
SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: JUNE 10, 2008 PLENARY AND RELATED MEETINGS


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1. (SBU) Summary. During the June 10 JCG Plenary under
Kazakh Chairmanship, Belgium briefly described its
ratification procedures noting the process would take 6-12
months. Then Azerbaijan and Armenia exchanged a series of
interventions in which Armenia did not answer direct
questions posed by Azerbaijan regarding lack of transparency
on units in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian Chief Arms Control
Delegate Ulyanov did not attend for the second week in a row
as he was reportedly tied up with preparations for the Joint
FSC-PC meetings regarding Abkhazia. Germany presented a read
out of the Pugwash Conference at the June 9 JCG-T and alerted
Allies that Russia would likely continue to push for JCG
discussion on substantial combat forces, accession and
ceilings. The Treaty Operation and Implementation (TOI)
small group met on June 12 to agree on a new chair; Russia
mentioned it may propose suspension of the JCG working
groups. End Summary

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JCG PLENARY - AZERBAIJAN ASKS ARMENIA POINTED QUESTIONS
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2. (SBU) At the June 10 JCG Plenary chaired by Kazakhstan,
Belgium (Pauwels) made a brief intervention on its
ratification procedures noting the normal duration is
generally one year, but can be accelerated to 6 months for
matters of political urgency. Russian Chief Arms Control
Delegate Ulyanov (as expected) sent CFE expert Vadim
Solomenko as the Russian representative again since Ulyanov
was tied up with preparations for the Joint FSC-PC meetings
on increased tensions between Russia and Georgia over
Abkhazia. (Comment. The reason behind Ulyanov's now second
absence was reported by Italy, and confirmed by Germany, in
the JCG-T that met the day prior. End comment)


3. (SBU) Azerbaijan (Jafarova) kicked off a round of
Azerbaijani-Armenia interventions stemming from last week's
FSC intervention regarding France's inclusion, in its report
of a VDoc inspection in Armenia, the Armenian charge that
Azerbaijan,s holdings exceed its CFE equipment ceilings.
The JCG statement was directed only at Armenia and its
failure to notify, let alone accept inspections of, over 40
Armenian units in Nagorno-Karabakh. Referring to the
footnote in its annual data, Jafarova noted Azerbaijan,s
full transparency with regard to 9 units along the line of
conflict in contrast to Armenia's 'hiding' of over 40 units
in the occupied territory. She then pointedly asked Armenia
to provide any documentation regarding notifications or
inspections of these units that would substantiate its claim
that all units have been notified and are open to inspection.



4. (SBU) Rather than address the specific questions,
Armenia (Hovhannisyan) repeated standard accusations,
reiterated that Armenia was fulfilling all CFE obligations
and questioned why Azerbaijan ever signed CFE and adapted CFE
considering the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh predated the
CFE Treaty. The end result was Azerbaijan and Armenia trying
to top each other as to who was more out of compliance, with
Azerbaijan asking rhetorically when it had ever given Armenia
consent to deploy forces in the occupied territories.

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JCG-T Plus 4 - Russia's plans for JCG and latest Flank
Proposal
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5. (SBU) At the 14 January JCG-T plus 4, chaired by Turkey
(Begec),Germany (Richter) presented a read out of the June
6-8 Pugwash Conference that had just met in Potsdam. Of
note, Richter underscored there was a general understanding
of the serious consequences that would stem from the loss of
CFE and concern for a potential delay in resolving the
impasse (alluding to the U.S. administration change) which
would translate into no substantive progress for at least a
full year. Richter noted Russia insists it has shown
flexibility through a willingness to even discuss the
Istanbul commitments and accept documentary transfer of
Gudauta for which Georgia will not give permission. He
alerted Allies that Russia would likely put forth concrete
proposals in the JCG on the "secondary issues that have risen
to the forefront," namely substantial combat forces,
accession and ceilings, as Russia opines they are not
satisfactorily addressed in the NAC statement.


6. (SBU) Regarding the Baluyevskiy flank-proposal, initially
floated at a NATO-Russia Council CHOD meeting, Richter said
he provided the Russians with the German unofficial reaction
that the proposal ran counter to the very purpose of adapted
CFE in terms of regional and sub-regional limits to prevent
massing of forces. Turkey (Begec) noted it remains
unconvinced that the Russian proposal would provide security
assurances equal to the current Treaty. Both the U.S.
(Neighbour) and Turkey concurred with the criticality of
predictability and preventing sub-regional concentrations of
forces. Neighbour also thanked the Germans for enabling the
Pugwash conference to happen and emphasized that it was
purely an academic brainstorming event during which all
representatives from NATO countries closely adhered to HLTF
guidance.


7. (SBU) There was minimal preparation required for the June
10 JCG meeting as no interventions were planned other than
Belgium's brief statement on ratification procedures. Italy
(Negro) reported, and Germany confirmed, that Ulyanov had
indicated there would be no Russian statement and that he,
himself, would not even be present as he was preoccupied with
preparing for the meetings regarding Georgia.

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Small Group Meeting - Another Russian suspension?
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8. (SBU) On June 12, the Treaty Operation and
Implementation (TOI) Group Chairman (Fardellotti, Italy)
convened the TOI small working group with the intention of
clearing his nomination for the next TOI Chair (Linteau,
Canada) before bringing the issue to the full TOI. Germany,
Russia and the U.S. voiced support for the nomination.
Citing a lack of progress in both the JCG and the U.S.-Russia
Bilateral channel, Russia (Solomenko) stated that it would
likely soon put forward an official proposal to suspend the
activity of the JCG Working Groups (TOI and POET). (Comment:
Such a proposal would require - and not likely achieve -
consensus in the JCG. End comment)


9. (U) The next JCG Plenary, to be chaired by Kazakhstan,
will take place on June 17, followed by a TOI meeting, and
will be preceded by a JCG-T on June 16.
FINLEY