NOVEMBER 21 HLTF: ALLIES AGREE TO CFE LANGUAGE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 USNATO 000442

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018
TAGS: KCFE NATO PARM PREL
SUBJECT: NOVEMBER 21 HLTF: ALLIES AGREE TO CFE LANGUAGE FOR
COMMUNIQUE; AWAIT REACTIVATION OF CFE BILAT CHANNEL

REF: STATE 122520 (NOV 21 HLTF GUIDANCE)

Classified By: A/DCM W. Scott Reid for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. At the November 21 NATO High Level Task
Force (HLTF) meeting, Allies agreed on CFE language for the
upcoming NATO Ministerial communique and how to deploy agreed
language at subsequent key dates in December. The text
(agreed via silence procedure on November 24) is closely
based on Bucharest Summit language, updated to address
Russia's actions in Georgia and Allies' growing concern about
Russia's continued suspension of CFE implementation. It
stresses Allies' commitment to CFE and openness to working
with Russia via the Parallel Actions Package to preserve its
benefits. The text will also serve as a basis for a NATO
statement on CFE at the OSCE Ministerial in Helsinki, and to
address the December 15 data exchange in Vienna. Most Allies
did not express support for issuing an Allied public
statement on December 12, the anniversary of Russia's
"suspension".


2. (C) Discussions at the HLTF and on the margins touched on
the status of the Fried-Antonov CFE bilateral channel with
respect to Georgia, the unlikely utility of NATO-Russia
Council Arms Control Experts' meetings in 2009, and Allied
thinking on the Medvedev European Security Treaty proposal.
As at the last HLTF meeting, the French rep found himself
defending President Sarkozy's public call for an OSCE Summit
as soon as mid-2009, which he said was apparently due to the
media misreading Sarkozy's attempt to focus on the idea that
an OSCE Summit could not occur before the NATO Summit in
April 2009. END SUMMARY.

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CONTACTS and BILATERALS
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3. (C) As expected, reporting on contacts and bilaterals
with Russian interlocutors was minimal but provided some
insights:

-- United Kingdom: As evidence of Russia's continued
diplomatic push on Medvedev's still vague European Security
proposal, UK Rep Ford reported in the HLTF plenary that Nick
Pickard, Head of the FCO Security Policy Group, had met with
Yuri Gorlach, MFA Deputy Director for European Cooperation,
on November 7 to discuss Russia's proposal. Ford noted
Russia offered nothing new but was keen to gain support from
the UK and other European capitals. He remarked that Gorlach
had stressed Russia was interested in keeping CFE - assuming
it was "modernized" with not only additional limitations on
forces (for NATO),but also on basing and infrastructure.
The UK emphasized that existing institutions and principles,
to include human rights, must remain the basic framework for
any discussions and that new ideas were welcome as long as
they were credible (which would entail compliance with
existing commitments.)

-- Germany: During the Quad meeting the day prior to the
HLTF, German Rep Biontino provided Russian "feedback" on CFE
based on a bilateral meeting with MFA Counselor Sergey
Federyakov of the Department for Security and Disarmament
Affairs. Federyakov noted that the Parallel Actions Plan is
still relevant; Russia has proposals based on the March 28
NAC statement but will only present them when talks resume;
Russia will not distribute its CFE data on December 15 but
will provide aggregate information; and MAP for Georgia and
Ukraine is a CFE red line for Russia. Biontino noted this
last point was in keeping with the position MFA Director
Antonov laid out at the CFE Review Conference in 2006 - MAP
for Georgia and Ukraine would give further emphasis to those
in Russia arguing against CFE. Biontino did not repeat this
report during the HLTF plenary.

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THE WAY AHEAD
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4. (C) The HLTF Chair (IS/Robert Simmons) used the way ahead
discussion to seek HLTF input on the impact of arms control
to feed into upcoming NATO discussions of the Medvedev

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European Security Treaty proposal and the drafting of a
limited list of potential NATO-Russia Council meetings in
2009 in the context of "no business as usual" in NATO-Russia
relations:

-- Medvedev Security Treaty: In the HLTF meeting and on the
margins most Allies welcomed the news that NATO permreps
would be discussing what NATO's position should be on
Russia's European Security Treaty proposal. U.S. HLTF Rep
State/VCI DAS Karin L. Look emphasized it would be useful for
NATO to have a unified voice on general principles for the
upcoming OSCE ministerial. Only Romania (Director General
for Strategic Affairs Stoica) spoke at length in the HLTF,
underscoring that NATO Allies should stress the criticality
of the current system and should make clear our skepticism
about Russia's intentions, especially since Russia is not
meeting its existing OSCE and CFE commitments. That theme
was echoed in comments on the margins by Turkey, the Baltics,
and the UK, and - to a large degree - France. Only Germany
countered - at the Quad meeting - that "negotiating" a
unified approach would be challenging considering the broader
issues with which the OSCE deals.

-- NRC (ACE): Simmons raised the idea of not having the NRC
(ACE) on the list of possible NATO-Russia meetings for 2009,
stressing that the focus for now was on the Parallel Actions
Package and the bilateral channel. The U.S. (Look) concurred
that the bilateral channel was the focus and remarked that
the NRC (ACE) format had not been productive in the past and
would not be of use in the near term, although that did not
mean we would never find it useful to have an ACE meeting.
Others who spoke (TU, GER, IT, FR, SP and BE) agreed there
was no reason to have an NRC (ACE) meeting anytime soon, but
did not want to preclude the possibility of the NRC (ACE)
meeting in 2009 at all. The Chair undertook to report that
most wanted to keep the NRC (ACE) format on the list, but
cautioned that doing so could result in Russia calling for a
meeting soon, especially if the list was given to Russia and
its purpose was to identify meetings to be held in the near
term.


5. (C) Georgia and the Parallel Actions Package: Prompted
by the Chair to speak to the status of the Fried-Antonov
talks, U.S. Rep Look indicated that the U.S. was exploring
options for a way ahead via CFE that addresses the
consequences of Russia's military actions in Georgia by
building Georgia's security, influencing Russia to implement
its commitments, and preserving Allied principles. Look
noted Allied concerns for trying to keep positive momentum
and remarked that this type of approach - with which the
Georgians would have to be comfortable - may enable us to
reengage with Russia on CFE through the Fried-Antonov channel
soon. On the margins, per guidance from A/S Fried on the
20th, U.S. Rep Look and Jennifer Laurendeau described A/S
Fried's efforts regarding Georgia to Quad Allies, the Turkish
HOD, the Romanian Deputy, the Lithuanian HOD and Estonian
HOD: A/S Fried was discussing ideas with the Georgians; the
U.S. hoped to be able to discuss ideas in detail with Allies
in the next weeks; and Fried
hoped to meet Antonov before the end of the year.

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COMMUNIQUE LANGUAGE AGREED - EVENTUALLY
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6. (C) The highlight of the relatively brief HLTF plenary
was the eventual ad ref agreement on a CFE paragraph for
inclusion in the NAC Foreign Ministerial communique. The
text is closely based on Bucharest Summit language (updated)
and was originally developed among Quad Allies (behind the
scenes) at the November 5-7 HLTF off-site meeting in Romania.
The final text cleared silence on November 24 and is
included below in para 10.

-- The Quad along with Turkey, the Netherlands, the Czech
Republic, the Baltics, Romania, and many others, including
Iceland, supported the text as presented. The key
stakeholders stressed that the balanced, well-structured text
addressed core NATO interests and that Allies should not open
it for changes. With its frank criticism of Russia's actions
in Georgia and suspension of CFE, the text is also the

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maximum that Germany and France could accept - and the least
the U.S. could accept. The text reflects a basic NATO
understanding that CFE is a cornerstone of European security;
Allies want to preserve its benefits and hope Russia will
work with us toward that goal.

-- During the November 21 HLTF discussion, Portugal and Italy
sought to edit the document but were essentially overridden
by the majority. Italy initially insisted on two "stylistic"
changes, but eventually relented by accepting agreement to
just one edit (changing the word "engage" to "work" in the
final sentence) in an effort to more accurately reflect
Bucharest wording.

-- Portugal - claiming the language seemed like an empty
threat - requested deletion of the entire sentence that
reads, "However, the current situation, where NATO CFE Allies
implement the Treaty while Russia does not, cannot last
indefinitely." The U.S. (supported by POL, GER, NL, BE, NO,
TU and CZ) noted this was not a threat; the U.S. stressed it
was an agreed Alliance position reflected in Bucharest and an
essential element that must remain in the text or risk
misinterpretation. After extensive discussion, the
Portuguese Rep backed off bracketing the text but required a
period of silence to gain approval in Lisbon.


7. (C) Allies agreed that this text should be used as
necessary by NATO states at the OSCE Ministerial in Helsinki
and would not be renegotiated unless major events intervened.
The text will also serve as a basis for an Allied statement
in Vienna at the December 16 JCG. The intention is for
Allies to use the communique text with an additional
paragraph specific to the December 15 data exchange. As far
as any statement on December 12, even for public diplomacy
purposes, Allies were not convinced of the need for another
statement so close to other events and did not think there
was a need to call unnecessary attention to the anniversary
of Russia's "suspension."

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MEETINGS ON THE MARGINS
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8. (C) On the margins of the HLTF, the U.S. met with Quad
reps from Germany, France and the UK, as well as conducted
bilateral meetings with Turkey, the Czech Republic and
Estonia. For the most part, Allies previewed and discussed
the same points that they made in the main HLTF meeting with
a few exceptions.

-- Quad: Most of the discussion in the quad mirrored points
made in plenary. However, in addition to Germany's report on
contacts and bilats (see para 2),there was some discussion
of recent mention in the press of an OSCE Summit as early as
mid-2009. As at the October HLTF meeting, the French Rep
(Raharinaivo) found himself defending public statements of
President Sarkozy, but this time - only at the quad meeting.
Raharinaivo made clear that Sarkozy's call at the EU-Russia
Summit for an OSCE Summit in 2009 was intended to focus on
the idea that an OSCE Summit could not occur before the April
NATO Summit and could not occur without consultation with the
U.S. This was read by the media as a call for a summit in
the first 6 months of 2009. Raharinaivo remarked that a 2009
OSCE Summit could serve to launch the process and not
necessarily to reach any decisions; it "could be" in the
context of the OSCE (the decision was not up to Sarkozy).

-- Turkey: Turkish Rep Ahmet Gun's basic message to U.S. Rep
Look was simple: Turkey wants to save CFE, including its
flank regime, appreciates U.S. efforts, and wants no
surprises. Like others, he is mistrustful of the European
Security Treaty proposal and worried about what will result
from the Ministers' luncheon discussion of the idea at the
Helsinki Ministerial.

-- Czech Republic: At the October HLTF meeting and the
early November off-site, the Czech Republic distributed a
food-for-thought paper and pushed for contingency planning so
Allies would be prepared for a potential "future without the
CFE." U.S. Rep Look met with Czech Rep Zvonkova on the
margins of the HLTF to discuss the benefit of an approach

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that does not presuppose the demise of CFE and proactively
seeks nearer term solutions, including finding a way to use
CFE principles to achieve progress in Georgia and reflect
that in the Parallel Actions Package. Look emphasized that
Allies should maintain a unified approach that preserves our
core principles and serves NATO's interests. Our aim, and
focus, should be to preserve the CFE regime with Russia as a
fully implementing State Party, especially as it would be
impossible to negotiate a CFE replacement from scratch.

-- Estonia: U.S. Rep Look met briefly with Estonian Rep
Kolga, primarily to let him know about A/S Fried's
consultations with Georgia. Kolga seemed genuinely pleased
that the U.S. was working to find a way to use CFE to address
Russia's actions in Georgia and to get the Parallel Actions
Package - which includes early consultations by the Baltic
states - restarted.


9. (SBU) NEXT MEETINGS. Regarding the HLTF schedule for the
remainder of the year, Allies agreed a meeting in December
was probably not necessary but kept the December 11 date
tentatively available. The HLTF will most likely reconvene
during the week of January 26, 2009.


10. (SBU) HLTF AGREED CFE TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE
COMMUNIQUE OF THE MINISTERIAL MEETING IN DECEMBER 2008

BEGIN TEXT:

We place the highest value on the CFE Treaty regime with all
its elements. We underscore the strategic importance of the
CFE Treaty, including its flank regime, as a cornerstone of
Euro-Atlantic Security. We reiterate the endorsement by
Heads of State and Government at the Bucharest Summit of the
statement of the North Atlantic Council of 28 March 2008. We
reaffirm the Alliance's commitment to the CFE Treaty Regime,
as expressed in the Alliance's position contained in
paragraph 42 of the 2006 Riga Summit Declaration, the final
statement by Allies at the CFE Extraordinary Conference in
Vienna and Alliance statements reflecting subsequent
developments. We are deeply concerned that, for nearly a
full year, since 12 December 2007, the Russian Federation has
continued its unilateral "suspension" of its legal
obligations under the CFE Treaty. Furthermore, Russia's
actions in Georgia have called into question its commitment
to the fundamental OSCE principles on which stability and
security in Europe are based: principles which underpin the
CFE Treaty. These actions run counter to our common
objective of preserving the long-term viability of the CFE
regime and we call upon the Russian Federation to resume its
implementation without further delay. Because of our
commitment to cooperative security and fulfillment of
international agreements as well as the importance we attach
to the confidence that results from military transparency and
predictability, we have continued fully to implement the
Treaty despite Russia's "suspension". However, the current
situation, where NATO CFE Allies implement the Treaty while
Russia does not, cannot last indefinitely. Over a year ago,
we offered a set of constructive and forward-looking
proposals for parallel actions on key issues, including steps
by NATO Allies on ratification of the Adapted CFE Treaty and
by the Russian Federation on outstanding commitments related
to Georgia and the Republic of Moldova. We continue to
believe that these proposals address all of Russia's stated
concerns. We urge the Russian Federation to work
cooperatively with us and other concerned CFE States Parties
to reach agreement on the basis of the parallel actions
package so that together we can preserve the benefits of this
landmark regime.
VOLKER