SENATOR LUGAR DISCUSSES RUSSIA/GEORGIA WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L USNATO 000326

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2017
TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS GG RS
SUBJECT: SENATOR LUGAR DISCUSSES RUSSIA/GEORGIA WITH
DIVIDED ALLIES

Classified By: Ambassador Kurt Volker for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Senator Lugar and staff had a series of
productive meetings with the NATO Secretary General, SACEUR,
the principal NATO supporters of Georgia, the German
Permanent Representative to NATO, and a dinner that included
notable EU, NATO, and bilateral dignitaries. The Senator
stressed the importance of Article 5 of the Washington
Treaty, but cautioned against cutting off cooperation with
Russia that is in our interest, such as the Nunn-Lugar
Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. Allies and EU leaders
expressed sharp divisions on how to deal with Russia. The
new Allies tended towards a harsher response to Russia and
increased Article 5 contingency planning at NATO, while old
Allies and the EU saw a more limited tool box focused on
economic and financial costs for Russia. End Summary.

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LET'S NOT SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT
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2. (SBU) In his September 3-4 meetings at NATO and his dinner
with EU, NATO, and Belgian leaders, Senator Lugar advocated
continuing cooperation that was in our interest. For
example, he cited the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction
Program and cooperation on Iran and counter-terrorism as the
types of endeavor that should remain above the political
fray. The Senator said Allies and Russia must be reminded
that our commitment to Article 5 is beyond doubt.

3. (SBU) Senator Lugar elaborated on the economic costs to
Russia of the war with Georgia. He pointed out the
vulnerability of the Russian stock market and its capital
flows; Russia is now part of the world economy and cannot
ignore its impact. The Senator recommended that the EU
develop a comprehensive energy policy to mitigate dependency
on Russian energy and expressed strong support for the
Nabucco pipeline.

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NEW ALLIES (AND UKRAINE) FOCUS ON ARTICLE 5
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4. (SBU) The Baltic countries pointed out that light,
expeditionary forces in Georgia had been unsuccessful in
repelling the Russian attack, arguing that perhaps NATO
should focus on heavier, static forces for territorial
defense. The Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO said Kyiv is
drawing clear lessons from the Georgian experience and that
collective security is Ukraine's only option. He said that
Medvedev's recent letter to President Yushchenko contained
the harshest language he had seen in his career in any
diplomatic correspondence. Czech NATO Perm Rep Fule
suggested that NATO Political Directors meet to develop a
coherent Russian policy, called for Article 5 contingency
planning, and pledged that the Czech EU Presidency would
promote EU-NATO policy cohesion.


5. (C) The UK NATO Perm Rep said that Russia must pay a price
for its misbehavior, but the Alliance must be judicious in
assuring any measure hurts Russia more than the Alliance. He
sympathized with the Baltic countries' call for a risk
assessment, but argued that NATO transformation towards
expeditionary forces and the responsibilities of Article 5
are compatible goals.

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OLD ALLIES (AND EU) FOCUSED ON ECON TOOLS
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6. (SBU) In a separate one-on-one meeting with Senator Lugar,
German NATO Perm Rep Bradenburg claimed that the West's only
effective means to pressure Russia are economic and
financial. He said that NATO, however, is not "a major
player" in this conflict, adding that participation in the
NATO-Russia Council should not be a tool by which to pressure
Russia. Senator Lugar responded that Allied unity is the key
to getting Russia's attention. Bradenburg said that we need
Russian support for the Security Council renewal of the
mandate for ISAF, because without it Germany could not keep
its troops in Afghanistan. Showing tepid German support for

Ukraine's Membership Action Plan aspirations, Brandenburg
drew the Senator's attention to the political crisis in Kyiv,
commenting that the "Ukrainians have a habit of shooting
themselves in the foot."


7. (C) EU Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner emphasized the success
of Sarkozy's six-point plan in ending the fighting in Georgia
and stressed the need to bridge the internal EU divide on
Russian policy. In particular, she said, withdrawing the
Russia/EU agreement required Russia to pay a price and called
for bringing the Nabucco pipeline forward. The Italian Perm
Rep to the EU Feroci said it would be difficult to unify old
and new members of the EU on Russia, and suggested that the
EU could replace NATO as a framework for Georgian and
Ukrainian integration.
WEINROD