UNODC CHIEF COSTA BRIEFS THE NAC ON AFGHANISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000321

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2018
TAGS: ECON MARR NATO PGOV PREL SNAR UN AF
SUBJECT: UNODC CHIEF COSTA BRIEFS THE NAC ON AFGHANISTAN
OPIUM SURVEY

Classified By: A/DCM
Walter S. Reid for Reasons 1.4(B) AND (D).


1. (U) SUMMARY: UN Under-Secretary-General Antonio Costa,
Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime
(UNODC),briefed NATO Allies, partners, EU representatives
and the World Bank on September 3 on UNODC's 2008 Afghanistan
Opium Survey report. Costa reported that poppy cultivation
decreased by 19 percent, with a 6 percent drop in production
from last year. Additionally, 18 of 34 provinces are now
poppy free, 5 more than in 2007. Costa stated that there was
a definite link between terrorism and poppy growth, and noted
that the 7 provinces in the south and southwest where the
insurgency is strongest also produced 98 percent of the poppy
crop. Costa made several recommendations to reduce the opium
trade and answered a variety of questions from the Council
regarding what ISAF and the international community can do to
help in this area. END SUMMARY.

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CULTIVATION DOWN 19 PERCENT
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2. (U) In a September 3 briefing to NATO PermReps, ISAF
non-NATO troop contributing nations, and representatives of
the EU Commission, EU Council and World Bank Costa said that,
overall, there were significant improvements in the opium
situation in Afghanistan. Poppy cultivation decreased by 19
percent, which brought it below 2006 levels. The tonnage of
opium produced dropped only 6 percent over last year,
however, due to greater yields per hectare. Additionally, 18
of 34 provinces are now poppy free, five more than in 2007.
Notably, Nangarhar, previously the second highest opium
producing province, is poppy free for the first time in the
country's modern history.


3. (U) Two main reasons were given for the decline in poppy
cultivation: pressure from the government and weather. The
overwhelming reason for the reduction was pressure by
Governors, shurras and local government on farmers not to
plant poppy. This pressure was seen as a major motivator and
area to promote in the future. A perceptible, but
insignificant, factor was the very cold winter and dry
spring, which led to crop reduction or failure in some areas.

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BUT, NOT THERE YET...ERADICATION SHOWN AS UNSUCCESSFUL
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4. (U) The UNODC chief specifically highlighted the direct
correlation between insecurity and poppy cultivation. He
stated that 98 percent of the poppy crop is produced in the
five southern and two central provinces where the insurgency
is strongest. Additionally, the total production of 8,000
tons of opium is twice the average yearly worldwide demand.
The surplus opium is being stored around Afghanistan and
presents other specific problems, such as a buffer for bad
years or a way to influence the market price of opium. Costa
also highlighted Afghanistan's open borders, noting the very
active trade from Iran and the many markets along the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border.


5. (U) The poppy eradication program was highlighted as not
effective, with only 3.4 percent of the crop eradicated. As
a comparison, 67 percent of the cocoa cultivation is
eradicated in Columbia. Costa argued that because the farmers
have almost no fear their crops will be eradicated, the
threat of eradication does not serve as a deterrent to poppy
cultivation.

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RUMOR OF TALIBAN OPIUM BAN CONCERNS UNODC
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6. (U) USG Costa relayed that very recently UNODC surveyors
in Afghanistan heard rumors that the Taliban were planning to
implement a ban on poppy cultivation. This concerned the
director for several reasons:
- It would be a public relations coup for the Taliban,
especially if they encouraged farmers to grow wheat instead
to alleviate food shortages and high prices;
- It could create a shortage in the opium trade, leading
to a sell-off of surplus supplies and raising profits for the
insurgents; and

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- It may reverse the public view of the insurgents as
drug criminals

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UNODC RECOMMENDATIONS TO CUT OPIUM TRADE
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7. (U) Costa provided several recommendations for the Afghan
government, ISAF, and the rest of the international community
to cut down on opium production and trade:
-- Destroy high value targets such as labs, markets,
convoys;
-- Seize convoys of precursors chemicals;
-- List major traffickers under the provisions of UNSCRs
1735 and 1822 (he said currently no traffickers had been
listed);
-- Make ANA and ANP counter-narcotics operations more
aggressive;
-- Regain control province by province, particularly in
the west and center;
-- Enhance border security with Iran and Pakistan; and
-- Invest in the development of opium free provinces so
they see the benefits of not producing poppies.

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"FIGHTING OPIUM TRAFFICKING IS FIGHTING TERRORISM"
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8. (U) Afghanistan Ambassador Nezam stressed that the
success was primarily due to governors and local government
actions. He also remarked that there is a definite link
between poppy growth and terrorism and said, "fighting opium
trafficking is fighting terrorism." The Ambassador
highlighted some Afghan improvements including a National
Anti-Drug Strategy, Counter-narcotics Trust Fund, a 3,700
person Counter-narcotics Brigade, enhanced legal capacity to
prosecute narcotics cases, and a Counter-narcotics Task
Force. He also noted that of the $70 billion in the drug
trafficking trade, only $700 million goes to farmers.
Finally, he stated that Afghanistan will continue to rely on
the international community for support in the future.

(U) Tajikistan: The Tajik representative stated the Taliban
provides organization and personnel to run the poppy trade.
He also noted that the drug trade is a complex system
involving political, economic and social factors and that the
Afghan Government must "shape" the population to move away
from poppy cultivation and trade.

(U) United Kingdom: Ambassador Eldon asked for Costa's views
on what nations can do in respect to high value targets,
markets, convoys and labs. He also wondered what ordinary
Afghans think of drug traffickers, to which the answer was
that they are seen in a negative way and most Afghans get
upset when their neighbors begin to profit from the trade.
Also, he saw being anti-drug as a "vote getter" for
politicians. NOTE: (C) UK Del NATO says HMG not convinced of
UNODC assertation of large opium surplus in storage. END NOTE

(SBU) The Japanese representative provided information on
USD 5 million the Government of Japan dedicated to fighting
drugs and funding reconstruction.

(U) Among those nations skeptical of a greater ISAF role in
counter-narcotics, German Ambassador Brandenburg asked
Costa's opinion on effective measures to support local and
Afghan national government counter-narcotic efforts and asked
for more details on what the Afghan government is doing to
improve its counter-narcotics capabilities. The Dutch DCM
asked about further ISAF efforts against insurgent
trafficking and whether this would be a military or law
enforcement matter. He also asked about the prosecution
capacity to absorb any new detained traffickers. He asked
Costa's views on whether the international community should
increase capacity building and where should it concentrate
these efforts?

(U) The Australian representative asked if UNODC had any
reaction to the rumor of the Taliban opium ban. Costa
answered that they were working on it, but it was a very new
development and a very tricky point on which they welcomed
suggestions.

(SBU) Russia: Ambassador Rogozin was present, but did not

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intervene.

(U) Costa,s Answers: In response to other questions from
PermReps on the cause of the cultivation decline, Costa noted
that President Karzai had put tremendous pressure on
Governors after the 2007 UNODC report established a Good
Performance Fund for poppy-free provinces. He also continued
to acknowledge the need for support from the shurras and
local mullas. On the opium economy, Costa noted that opium
accounted for USD 2.3-2.5 billion of the USD 9.5 billion GDP,
and that despite a USD 3 billion negative trade balance, the
currency remains strong. This suggests that the drug trade
is fueling the Afghan economy. In regards to what more the
international community can do, Costa noted that PRTs make a
unique positive impression and that World Bank engagement
would definitely help. Costa noted that worldwide demand for
opium is slowly decreasing due to an increase in psychoactive
drugs, but remains significant. He noted that the link
between organized crime and trafficking is clear and that in
the some southern provinces, organized crime is stronger than
the insurgency.


9. (C) COMMENT: UN Under-Secretary-General Costa's briefing
was well supported and well received by the Allies, partners
and other organizations in attendance. This briefing comes
at a time when the Allies are waiting for SACEUR military
advice on expanding the counter-narcotics role for ISAF. The
information in this presentation and recommendations by the
UNODC Executive Director may help provide justification for
SACEUR and COMISAF's requests. END COMMENT.
WEINROD